Prediction of mortality after an earthquake based on multivariate analysis of demographic and seismic data
An analysis of reported world-wide earthquake facilities is performed in order to develop a method for precocious estimates of mortality after an earthquake. This analysis is conducted on a data set compiled from demographic, seismic and reported mortality data culled from available records of past earthquakes. An earthquake mortality prediction methodology, composed of an algorithm that handles layers of demographic and seismic data, organised within a Geographic Information System, is presented. It is shown that, if the method is to be effective, the input data should not only have a significant correlation with mortality but also be readily available in near real-time, as well as geographically referenced to the location of the earthquake-affected area. The analysis reveals that although the highest mortalities are expected in poorly developed rural areas, high fatality counts can result from a wide range of mortality ratios depending on the effective population size.
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 21059 EN (2004), 27 pp. Free of charge
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Record Number: 200417433 / Last updated on: 2004-03-09
Original language: en
Available languages: en