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Abstract

This research project aimed to identify estimation methods, which allow using a priori information, linked to observe similarities between countries, and assessing of the accuracy and consistency of the available estimates. More specifically, aims were
- To establish a formal Bayesian approach for extending existing multi-country models with additional country modules on the basis of time series of limited length, a priori similarities between countries and theoretical and empirical constraints. This is of particular relevance for the extension of the Commission's instruments of econometric analysis and policy evaluation.
- To implement in a user-friendly way the Bayesian approach: this includes attaching a priori weights on the basis of measurable similarities between countries, acceptability ranges based on theoretical considerations, a full Bayesian estimation computational tool, as well as a full Bayesian dynamical simulation engine for the final policy assessment. This also aims to derive a model that has been extended by the most objective and formalised methods, so that the results are transparent and reproducible.
- To apply the method to Accession Countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey): Romania was selected as the prototypic country.

Additional information

Authors: RATTO M, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT);GIRARDI R, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT);PALAGYI Z, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT);BRANDSMA A, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville (ES);CIUPAGEA C, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville (ES);ROEGER W, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels (BE)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 21194 EN (2004), 30 pp. Free of charge
Availability: Available from European Commission, JRC Knowledge Management Unit, Ispra (IT) Tel: +39 033278 9893 Fax: +39 033278 5409 E-mail: jrc-publications-office@ec.europa.eu or Bruxelles (BE) Tel: +32 2 295 76 24 Fax: +32 2 299 63 22
Record Number: 200417654 / Last updated on: 2004-07-19
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en
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