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European energy and transport - Trends to 2030: January 2003

Funded under: FP6-SUSTDEV


This report reviews the key issues arising from an assessment of likely economic, energy, transport and CO2 trends over the period to 2030 for current EU Member States, and EU candidate and neighbouring countries. The results and conclusions are presented here in the context of the “Long Range Energy Modelling” framework contract. They are based on quantitative analysis, with the use of the PRIMES and ACE mathematical models, and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organisations.
A major focus of the study is to assess the impacts following the accession negotiations with ten candidate countries for EU membership concluded at the Copenhagen Council in December 2002 on the enlarged EU energy system. These countries are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Part I reviews the international context, focusing in particular on the demographic and macro-economic framework; the outlook for primary energy prices; the likely evolution of the world energy system; and the prospects for CO2 emissions to 2030. Part II examines the EU energy and transport outlook to 2030. Part III addresses these issues for a group of 15 countries comprising the ten acceding states, three other candidate countries for EU membership (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), and two close neighbours of the EU (Norway and Switzerland). Finally Part IV provides an analysis of the energy and transport outlook to 2030 for the enlarged EU of 25 Member States embracing the current EU-15 and the ten acceding states.

Additional information

Authors: No author stated, European Commission, DG for Energy and Transport, Brussels (BE)
Bibliographic Reference: Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2003. 219 pp Euro: 45
Availability: (Catalogue Number: KO-AC-02-001-EN-C)
ISBN: ISBN: 92-894-4444-4
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