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FP7

Assessment of bias removal for deterministic medium-range weather forecasts in the Po river basin, Italy, Europe

Funded under: FP7-JRC

Abstract

The quality of medium-range flood forecasting depends strongly on the meteorological forecasting data used to drive the hydrological model. However, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can contain significant systematic errors especially with respect to precipitation leading to an over/under-forecasting of flooding events. The two principal sources for this error are the simplification of complex physical processes, e.g. precipitation generation, in numerical models and the different spatio-temporal scales at which these processes are represented. A first step in the evaluation of bias removal methods for weather forecasts is the identification and characterization of the actual bias in the data. Forecast verification is the process of determining the quality of forecasts through the assessment of the degree of similarity between forecast and observed conditions e.g., Murphy, 1993. However, as a result of the rapid progress in high-performance computing, improved numerical schemes, and a better understanding of atmospheric processes, higher detail from the meteorological observations has become necessary and hence complexity of validation techniques has increased. An alternative to the traditional way to verify precipitation forecasts is the coupling of atmospheric and hydrological models to compare forecasted and observed river discharges and therewith having an indirect indication of the quality of the precipitation forecast e.g., Jasper and Kaufmann, 2003, Verbunt et al., 2005. Here in this work, we will use both approaches to assess the bias corrected precipitation forecasts.

Additional information

Authors: SALAMON P, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT);THIELEN J, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 23248 EN (2008), various paging, Free of charge
Availability: http://bookshop.europa.eu/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/EU-Bookshop-Site/en_GB/-/EUR/ViewPublication-Start?PublicationKey=LBNA23248 (Catalogue Number: LB-NA-23248-EN-C)
Record Number: 200819919 / Last updated on: 2008-07-28
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en
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