Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS

FP7

1st workshop on the use of ensemble prediction system in flood forecasting

Funded under: FP7-JRC

Abstract

Fluvial floods are a common natural hazard in Europe. Only in the 90s, large floods have affected the Meuse and Rhine, the Oder and the Po rivers. Following the devastating floods in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, the European Commission launched a project on the development of a European Flood Alert System (EFAS). Since the beginning of 2003 EFAS is being developed and tested at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in the Institute for Environment and Sustainability.
The aim of EFAS is to complement the Member States activities towards increased preparedness for oncoming flood events. Its specific objectives are to increase the warning time from 3 up to 10 days, to provide flood forecasting for entire river basins unrestricted by administrative boundaries and to make use of the state-of-the-art of meteorological products for flood forecasting.
In particular the use of ensemble prediction systems (EPS), produced by the meteorological services to sweep the whole range of possible weather developments, are being explored by EFAS. The principle of EPS consists of not only producing one weather forecast but of producing a suite of forecasts that start with small differences in the initial conditions. These differences in initial conditions tend to grow as the forecasting time increases. The results are different weather forecast that may cluster around similar weather developments or spread widely. The advantage is that the uncertainty in the weather forecasts can be quantified and expressed in terms of probabilities. For example, a result from EPS could be that there is 70% of probability of having rainfall exceeding 10 mm over a given area.

Additional information

Authors: THIELEN J, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT);RAMOS M-H, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT);BARTHOLMES J, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 22118 EN (2005), 15 pp. Free of charge
Availability: http://bookshop.europa.eu/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/EU-Bookshop-Site/en_GB/-/EUR/ViewPublication-Start?PublicationKey=LBNA22118 (Catalogue Number: LB-NA-22118-EN-C)
Record Number: 200910011 / Last updated on: 2008-11-20
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en