Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS

FP7

Quantitative global model for armed conflict risk assessment

Funded under: FP7-SECURITY

Abstract

Tools for automated quantitative analysis of information are more and more required in the framework of early warning systems, to support political decision makers in making timely evaluations of the risk of severe crises. This report describes a scientifically sound approach to build a statistical model to assess quantitatively the risk of intra-state armed conflict in any country in the world. Our models are based on structural indicators, and they therefore make a static assessment of country level performance, which can then be ranked for conflict risk. The temporal trend provide additional information on the evolution of the situation. Attention is paid to operationalise this approach in early situation assessment.

Additional information

Authors: BURNLEY C, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT);BUDA D, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT);KAYITAKIRE F, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen, Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 23430 EN (2008), 106 pp. Free of charge
Availability: http://bookshop.europa.eu/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/EU-Bookshop-Site/en_GB/-/EUR/ViewPublication-Start?PublicationKey=LBNA23430 (Catalogue Number: LB-NA-23430-EN-C)
ISBN: ISBN: 978-92-79-09489-7
Record Number: 200910428 / Last updated on: 2009-10-12
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en