Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS


A quantitative risk assessment model of air transport safety that allows cost-benefit analysis of safety measures has been developed and evaluated. The model is intended to be used by all actors in the aviation system as a decision support tool to help indicate those areas were the available safety budget can be invested most effectively. The architecture of the model is based on the concept of a single 'consequence' resulting from a chain of events (or causal factors) providing the necessary link to connect such events to accident cost.
The model consists of two parts: a causal part and a cost part. The causal part is a set of generic accident scenarios, constructed from elements of the ADREP classification scheme.
The cost part lists 'heads of cost' of typical accident outcomes.
The most important problems encountered during the development are a lack of available data to properly quantify the causal part of the model, and the difficulty of modelling the cost associated with loss of airline reputation as a result of an accident.
Results of the project are being used as a basis for further development in a 5th framework project.

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