Service Communautaire d'Information sur la Recherche et le Développement - CORDIS

Short-term dynamics of seismicity: seismic risk reduction

The project develops theoretical and numerical models of seismicity and seismic risk thus creating a new base for understanding, monitoring and prediction. Methodology is rooted in theoretical physics, mathematical statistics and elastodynamics.

During the project execution, the following important results were obtained:
development of models for the exploration of symptoms of instability and for earthquake prediction;
methods, algorithms and software for 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional simulation of block dynamics developed and applied in the Western Alps and Vrancea region;
modified version of the earthquake prediction algorithm M8 suggested and compared to M8 and CN;
hierarchical division of the system of Armenian upland into interrelated elements and detection of subsystems and homogenous seismotectonic zones;
block structure geometry of the Alps based on morphostructural zonation map;
morphostructural lineaments and disjunctive nodes for the Kopet-Dagh and Carpatho-Balkan orogenic belt region (on this base nodes having potential for the occurrence of earthquakes with M 6.5 are identified);
'Creepex' used for the investigation of earthquakes source properties in spreading and subduction zones ;
determination of seismic strain and tectonic stress fields in the lithosphere, embedding the fault system;
a study of the 1991 Hailino and the 1992 Susamyr earthquakes using the developed techniques for reconstruction of seismic source parameters;
building of a focal mechanism database for the area of the Eastern Alps and Circum-Pannonian region;
determination of strong ground motion and seismic hazard estimation;
definition of elastic parameters of the structure of the Ararat sedimentary basin;
definition of amplitude-spectral characteristics of ground motion;
identification of the most active faults;
new approach for the classification of natural disasters;
new method for the statistical estimation of Mmax (maximum regional magnitude) and Amax (maximum peak ground acceleration at a given point during the time interval T);
codes for the analytical computation of synthetic accelerograms in anelastic, laterally heterogeneous media;
formation of databases, maps and catalogues for a number of regions.

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