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Content archived on 2022-12-23

World population growth: mathematical modelling, demography and global security

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As a result of the study, a quantitative non-linear mathematical model describing the gross features of global population growth, based on the principle of dynamic self-similarity and collective interactions, where a common consciousness and the exchange of information are the principle agents of growth, was developed and applied to interpret the main features of human history. The research project has thus managed to unite the methods of the exact sciences with that of the humanities in seeking a novel approach to some of the most important issues in our present predicament in world affairs, at a decisive time in history. The development of this project offered the opportunity for studies on issues of global security and stability, of the interactions with and influence of the environment and of large scale forecasts of human growth and development. An approach to the problem of the nature of the demographic transition and its importance as a fundamental transition in human development was worked out. Of significance is the insight, that the theory provides into the concept of time in human history, a way of comprehending time similar to the concept of "la longue duree", propagated by the Annales school of French historians. The synchronism of major phases of human history and prehistory, of primary interest in studies of world civilisations, can now be understood in terms of the demographic cycles, appearing in the theory. The experience gained in discussing world population growth show that this line of research is well received and the methods used are understood by the community of the hard sciences, but considerable difficulties are experienced in gaining acceptance by demographers, for some reject this approach, as too abstract and mechanistic. A significant breakthrough has happened, when the main journal on statistics published, signalling the acceptance of the ideas developed. For many, this study, based on integrative way of treating humanity is contrary to the detailed reductionist methodology generally practised in social studies. This is an important conceptual division, running through social sciences, that in a way does not facilitate interdisciplinary understanding and co-operation. That is why a detailed and concerted effort should be made in propagating these results and gaining acceptance by all concerned. Further efforts are needed to develop the mathematical part of the theory taking into account fluctuations, stability, evolution of the spatial distribution of growth and the ranking of towns. In the initial papers the first steps were made in treating these issues, that are now to develop as studies in non-linear dynamics. Finally this research project does provide a modern and instructive example of the exact and social sciences co-operating within a common program in seeking for a fundamental understanding of some of the most important problems in the development of humanity and pressing practical issues of our time.

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