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Models for transport environment and energy - version 2 strategic transport policy analysis

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The objective of the TRENEN II STRAN project is the development of strategic models for the assessment of pricing reform in transportation, and their application to the European Union. The strategic models are designed to analyse two types of policy problems. The first problem is to measure the gap between present and efficient prices across all modes. What prices are too low and what prices are too high compared to their marginal social cost? The second problem is to measure the potential of different types of pricing instruments to improve the pricing of transport. What can higher fuel excises achieve? Are parking charges and road tolls the best ways to make user prices correspond to marginal social costs? The answers go beyond theoretical principles. They take into account behavioural reactions, infrastructure capacity and interactions between modes. They integrate all external costs and they give information on the direction of pricing reform. Model development Two sets of models are developed: one for URBAN areas and one for INTERREGIONAL (or non-urban) transport. Both models use the same methodology. They represent the transport problem of a given zone as an equilibrium of a set of interrelated transport markets. One market corresponds to the use of a given type of vehicle (e.g., small gasoline car driven alone) at a particular period (peak or off peak) in that zone. Typically between 20 and 30 transport markets are distinguished for each zone. The equilibrium price on each market is expressed as a generalized cost (resource cost + tax + time cost). Using generalized costs as central price concept allows to study modal interactions resulting from changes in money prices and from changes in speed or quality of service. Present taxes may or may not cover the marginal external costs (congestion, air pollution, accidents, noise and road maintenance). The main aim of pricing reforms is to adjust transport taxes in order to cover better the marginal external costs. In this way all transport users, when deciding on their mode of travel, will take into account all costs to society. This is more than an accounting exercise and requires a model for two reasons. First, all modes interact and some of the external costs (congestion) depend on the volume of traffic itself. This means that optimal taxes require an equilibrium computation including all modes simultaneously. Second, pricing instruments are in general imperfect and this requires the trading off of welfare effects of too high or too low prices on different transport markets. A final important element in the study of transport pricing reforms is the use of the transport tax revenues. The welfare effect of any change in revenues from the transport sector will crucially depend on the use of this revenue in other sectors. In the TRENEN models, the changes in the transport tax revenue are returned to the households. Their possible efficiency enhancing effect when used to reduce other taxes can be taken into account via a cost of public funds parameter. The emphasis in the urban and interregional models is different. The urban models concentrate on urban modes (including walking and cycling), make a distinction between inhabitants and commuters and integrate parking costs and cordon tolling. The interregional models have tolled (highways) and untolled roads. An important part of the non-urban model is devoted to the freight transport modes. Morover it can be used in a two country version where countries compete for tax revenue from international freight transport.

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