The use of life cycle assessment tools for the development of integrated waste management strategies for cities and regions with rapid growing economies

Within the LCA-IWM Project the Waste Management Planning and Optimisation Handbook has been developed (Den Boer, E., Den Boer, J. and Jager, J. (2005): Waste Management Planning and Optimisation - Handbook for municipal waste prognosis and sustainability assessment of waste management systems, Ibidem Verlag, Stuttgart, Germany). In the Handbook the results from the previous work packages are concentrated. The Handbook describes the following themes: - User Guide to the two developed tools: the waste prognostic tool and the waste management assessment and optimisation tool. - Description of the scientific backgrounds of the tools: 1. Waste Generation Prognosis; 2. Environmental Sustainability Assessment for Waste Management Systems; 3. Economic Sustainability Assessment for Waste Management Systems; 4. Social Sustainability Assessment for Waste Management Systems; 5. Description of the developed quantified modules used for the calculation of the Sustainability Assessment: i. Waste collection performance; ii. Temporary Storage; iii. Collection and Transport; iv. Treatment (Landfill, Composting, Digestion, MBP aerobic, MBP anaerobic, Incineration, Paper recycling, Glass recycling, Metals recycling, Plastics & comp. recycling, MDR recycling, WEEE recycling - First users experiences (the tools have been applied in Nitra (Slovakia), Xanthi (Greece), Wroclaw (Poland), Reus (Spain) and Kaunas (Lithuania). - Good Practice guidelines in Waste Management Planning The Handbook has been translated into the languages of the municipalities involved in the project (Slovak, Lithuanian, Polish, Greek and Spanish). Both the English and the translated versions are printed in limited amounts. The printed Handbooks alongside with the developed tools and electronic versions of the other projects deliverables are freely available for municipalities across Europe, with a privilege for Central eastern and Southern European municipalities. The electronic version of the Handbook as well as the tools and the other project deliverables are downloadable from the project web site. In this way the Handbook is available to all municipalities, consultancies, educational institutes or other institutes working in the field of waste management planning. The Handbook enables users to use the developed tool in order to predict waste generation and compare several waste management scenarios and assess their performance in terms of environmental, economic and social sustainability. Doing so, a founded decision can be made on which waste management strategy is to be followed. In the municipalities involved in the Project, that are the first users of the tools, workshops for the dissemination of the Handbook were held. The Scientific Partners of the Project visited and will visit conferences where they promoted/will promote the Handbook and the developed tools. The Handbook together with the developed tools will be made available from the LCA-IWM project web-site: www.lca-iwm.net.

The scientific committee had evaluated environmental, economic and social indicator methodology. The individual member of the Scientific Committee and External Experts performed a peer review of the appropriateness of the approach chosen to solve to each the targets of the project. As it was positively evaluated, a software application was developed for the waste prognostic model and for computing of the Sustainability Indicators (Waste Prognostic Tool and Assessment tool). The prognostic tool is a java interface and the assessment tool is a visual basic interface based on Excel modules, to ensure that a targeted user - a decision maker in a waste management department of a municipality can easily use them. The targeted End-Users of this model are various actors involved in waste management planning and monitoring: i) primarily, in the cities and regions with fast growing economies (for planning assessment and optimisation) ii) secondly, in any other European regions (for monitoring, benchmarking and optimisation). Namely, the target End-Users are: - Municipalities and local/regional authorities responsible for spatial and waste management planning and development in cities - Institutes and Consultancies developing or/and evaluating local waste management plans. - Official and decision makers who verify the proposed developed strategies for waste management in cities and regions.

Within LCA-IWM project Environmental sustainability and LCA-based criteria for waste management planning and assessment were developed. The main source of environmental assessment system is the Project Consortium understanding of environmental sustainability and the European waste policy. A first step towards determining indicators for assessment Waste Management Systems (EnSWM) defining the Environmental Sustainability in waste management. This resulted in the expression of EnSWM through two major objectives: - Conservation of resources and - pollution prevention. For detailed assessment of environmental sustainability and implementation of general targets of European waste policy with regard to protection of the environment and human health, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based methodology has been proposed. Principles of streamlined LCA have been used to identify waste management relevant LCA impact categories. Based on a full LCA modelling with an existing LCA software tool (Umberto ©) for a case study waste management system impact categories most relevant for waste management have been selected. This selection is done through normalisation of the environmental impacts arising from waste management to the total environmental impacts on a Western European level within baseline Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) categories. The categories in which waste management has the highest contribution to total impact are selected as relevant for environmental assessment. The LCIA is based on the CML 2001 method. LCIA categories identified to be relevant for waste management are: - Depletion of abiotic resources - Climate change - Human toxicity - Photo-oxidant formation - Acidification - Eutrophication Another group of environmental assessment criteria are European policy-based criteria. Selection of these criteria and definition of their calculation algorithms was performed by nova Tec in cooperation with TUD. Selected policy-based criteria are based on specific targets of European waste policy, i.e. packaging recovery and recycling targets and the diversion of biodegradable waste fraction from land filling. Targets related to waste electric and electronic equipment and hazardous waste are only partly considered in this project. A further work was focussed on developing calculation methods for environmental impact indicators and aggregation methods for the final results. Apart from designed assessment criteria and indicators a substantial work was concerned with modelling of standard waste management modules in order to provide inventory data for criteria and modules. The waste management modules describe default technologies that will be used for the modelling and assessment of waste management scenarios. The modules provide default data on processes, their mass balances and emissions inventories, which are the basis for the modules. The following modules have been developed: Temporary Storage, Composting, Digestion, aerobic and anaerobic Mechanical-Biological Pre-treatment of residual waste, Incineration, Land filling and Recycling of: Paper & Cardboard, Glass, WEEE, Plastics, Packaging and Mixed Dry Recyclables. The individual modules of waste treatment facilities are used as a basis for waste management assessment model.

Within the workpackage 8, optimal waste management scenarios for the selected cities have been developed by the use of developed tools in workpackage 6. As data background, collected data in WP7 has been used. The cities, Kaunas, Reus, Nitra, Xanthi and Wroclaw have been selected mainly because of their rapid growing economies. Since these cities are from various regions of Europe and have different populations, the waste quality and quantity considerable varies. Due to these facts, it was necessary to verify the developed tools for varying conditions of waste management. The developed tools support the decision makers, especially municipalities, for the assessment of different waste avoidance strategies and environmental, economical and social performance of different waste management options. In first step, the scenarios have been developed for the selected cities. While one of the scenarios describes the current waste management situation in the cities, with other three scenarios better conditions regarding environmental, economical and social aspects are defined. Thereby the legal requirements and desires of the municipalities have been taken into consideration. Then the waste quantities and qualities have been forecasted considering existing situation and different waste avoidance strategies. After that, the assessment tool has been used to analyse different waste management scenarios. During this phase, the bugs in calculation and programming have been fixed and the tools have been redesigned for user-friendliness.

Within the Work Package 7 data for waste management planning in Reus, Wroclaw, Xanthi, Nitra, Kaunas were gathered by Project Partners from involved municipalities. The range of WP-7 was extended to preliminary analysis of waste composition from above mentioned cities. Additionally the verification of collected data and results of waste analysis was performed. The range of collected data was very broad, it included all parameters and variables necessary for planning alternative scenarios of waste management in targeted cities using developed tools. The data collected were grouped in the following sets: general information about municipality (population, infrastructure, residential structure, climate etc), existing and planned changes of system and equipment for waste temporary storage, collection and transport (types and numbers of bins, trucks, transfer stations, separate collection of recyclables etc.), existing and planned plants for treatment and disposal of wastes (biological, mechanical-biological, thermal, landfills, recycling facilities etc). Collected data sets for each stage of waste management concerned the technical, economic, social and environmental aspects of planning sustainable waste management systems according to developed methodology and tools. All collected data are presented in forms of Excel sheets for each municipality involved as well as balance sheets for all municipalities. In two municipalities (Wroclaw, Nitra) were performed waste composition analyses following the modified SWA-Tool methodology developed in the frame of the other 5th FP Project. Other partners used different methodologies for characterization of their municipal waste compositions. In some municipalities were also conducted social surveys using developed questionnaire having twenty-seven questions involving seven key factors affecting public risk perception: trust, voluntary versus involuntary, control, benefit/reward, understanding, gender and catastrophic potential and describing the population risk perception towards waste pre- and treatment plants. Results of surveys with their statistical evaluation are enclosed to the report. All data are specific for each municipality but they could be concerned as reference values for other municipalities studied. All collected data were used within the Work package 8 for creation and evaluation of alternative waste management scenarios for each municipality.

The objective of the Work package 4 (WP4) was to identify economic sustainability criteria of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems and to develop indicators to quantify economic performance of MSWM systems. The system in question here is the MSWM system. The time horizon of the system is two generations (about 50 60 years). The viewpoint is that of the Municipality, while the City Council is the basic decision-maker. There can of course be additional (supplementary) viewpoints, such as Regional, National, Global (depending on the chosen environmental and social indicators). The objective refers to a sustainable MSWM system, taking into consideration social, environmental and economic dimensions. In our case, with the municipal MSWM system, the objectives might be satisfaction of citizens, protection of the environment, reduction of waste, minimization of social unrest, minimization of citizens fees, etc. As for the depth of the analysis (level of detail), one would logically expect the same level for all parallel modules (environmental, economic, social). Yet, this is not practical for several reasons. An approximation in the order of 10 or 20 % in economics has a specific meaning and it is measurable. This is not so for social or for environmental aspects. It would be less than desirable to be very specific and accurate in the economic indicators and leave rather loose the other two piers of the analysis. Such an approach could convey wrong messages to the decision-makers and might defeat the very objective of the project. According to the above, some definitions or explanations of terms are in order: - Economic sustainability is related (and refers) to a specific system, a specific time horizon and a specific decision-maker. - A system operates in an Economically Sustainable manner if it covers all its expenses and it expects to do so over the horizon of the analysis. - If it is covering its expenses through subsidies, it could be considered sustainable only if there is a guarantee that these subsidies will continue to be available for ever. Economic sustainability also implies the least expensive waste management system for all interested parties (served clients a/o financers) over the complete operation period, provided that it generates enough income a/o profit to ensure an economically sound and continuous operation as well as coverage of all aftercare expenses for a period stipulated by law (certainly not less than 30 years after closure). The selected economic sustainability criteria and indicators are grouped as follows: - Criterion 1: Efficiency at both the Municipal level (Indicators: Cost per ton or per household or per person, Revenue from recovered material and energy, MSWM system Cost as % of GNP of the city, Diversion between revenue and expenditures for MSWM), - Criterion 2: MSWM subsystems efficiency (Indicators: Cost per ton or per household or per person for every subsystem (Temporary storage, Collection, Transport, Incineration, Aerobic Mechanical Biological Pre-treatment, Anaerobic Mechanical Biological Pre-treatment, Land filling, Anaerobic Digestion, Composting, Sorting, Hazardous Waste Treatment)), - Criterion 3: Equity (Indicators: Cost per person as % of minimum wage per person, Cost per person / income per person), - Criterion 4: Dependence on Subsidies (Indicator: Subsidies or grants per person).

The global and main objectives of Work package 10 were: to disseminate the results of the project among the potential end-users and to encourage the implementation of the developed tools and thus support the objective of improving the quality of life in cities. To achieve these objectives some tasks have been developed: the project has been presented at national and international scientific conferences; partners of the selected cities have organized a workshop to present the project, the developed tools and their applicability through the case study in the respective city; free copies of the handbook and software tool have been distributed to waste management departments in municipalities in Poland, Spain, Lithuania, Greece and Slovakia; finally, university partners will incorporate the developed tools to their teaching programs.

1. Results description The Waste Prognostic Tool - a practical software tool for waste management planners with highly improved accuracy - is the core output of the results No. 23501 - Data on waste generation trends-, which represents the extensive and essential database which has been exclusively used for the development of the prognostic model for waste generation (Result No. 23502). The tool (respectively the underlying model) enables the estimation of future municipal solid waste generation (MSW) and composition by main fractions for cities on a high level of planning accuracy over a period of 10 or more years. Compared to existing models, the accuracy is outstanding high for estimations of total MSW generation (The median error for forecasts over 5 to 22 years lies at 0.6% per year), whereas estimations for MSW composition can be made only on much lower level of accuracy due to limited data availability. Only a small set of social and economic indicators is necessary for forecasts. Thus a good trade-off between accuracy and user-friendliness could be achieved. Quantitative effects of measures for waste prevention and increased separate collection are considered. Using this model, it is possible to plan waste management systems with appropriate capacity thus functioning efficiently in both economic and environmental terms. 2. Dissemination Dissemination focuses on providing sustainable decision support for all parties involved in local/regional waste management planning: Local and regional authorities, institutes and consultancies as well as officials and decision makers. Within the project period, these groups were reached with different types of publications (see documentation): Scientific articles (8 finished, 2 in progress), oral presentations at conferences (6), popular scientific articles (2) and poster presentations (2). Together with these publications, the software tool including manual in the handbook (available in six languages) are made available at the website of this project (http://www.lca-iwm.net) in order to enable broad use of this tool. 3. Use potential The Waste Prognostic Tool can be applied for the development of long-term waste management plans in European cities or regions with urban structure. It is especially interesting for regions with rapidly growing economies (consecutively also waste amounts) such as in Southern or Central-Eastern Countries. Decision support is needed as knowledge on how estimating future waste amounts is completely missing in the most cases. Waste forecasts are as a rule carried out without consideration of socio-economic changes. 4. Key innovative features Key innovative features cover firstly the high predictive quality of the model concerning total MSW estimations, secondly appropriate trade-off between usability/user-friendliness (small number of available indicators) and planning accuracy, thirdly the integrated implementation of municipal measures (waste prevention and separate collection) in waste prognosis methodology and fourthly the new way of integration of qualified waste forecasts in life cycle assessment-based modelling of waste management systems. 5. Current status The development of the tool and its verification and improvement of practicability, the development and publication of the model description and manual and deliverables were completed. More than 10 publications were finished and were published or are, at this moment, in press. More publications as well as one related PhD-thesis are in preparation. 6. Use of the results Results will primarily used in the form of the provided software tool by the targeted end-users that will use the decision support tool themselves or that will use them to consult municipalities or local/regional authorities. Additionally the results are planned to be used scientifically: Firstly it is planned to implement the method in Asian and Latin-American countries, secondly the tool will be applied by scientific partners in the field of waste management planning and thirdly the statistical model is planned to be further improved and refined in the framework of a PhD-thesis. 7. Expected benefits Accurate forecast of waste generation is an indispensable step in waste management planning. The quantifiable benefit of a forecast with higher accuracy can only be measured ex-post, i.e. after the prognosis period that is unfortunately not possible. A growth forecast that is out by only 1% can lead to a deviation of more than 10% of the total waste generated over a planning period of 10 years. Under- or over-estimation thus has significant consequences in terms of additional investment and operating costs. Using the Waste Prognostic Tool in connection with well-funded forecasts of the used social and economic indicators is highly probable to lead to a more appropriate capacity planning. Aside from the factor costs, also other impacts deriving from facilities, e.g. environmental impacts are affected.

A set of social sustainability criteria and indicators has be developed which allow for monitoring and benchmarking of municipal waste management systems (MWMS), from a social sustainability perspective, both in the planning phase (through modelling) as well as the existing ones. The social impact indicators are oriented on the concept of quality of life. The primary indicators assess social acceptance for a waste management options ("social acceptability") and whether the service is available to all citizens at acceptable conditions ("social equity"). Needs of both the receivers of the waste management service as well as the providers (employees) are addresses ("social function"). Priority aspects that are considered are the following: citizens rights and obligations, employee rights and obligations, services suppliers responsibilities, government or controlling authorities responsibilities, social and environmental protection and community involvement. The following list of "relevant" criteria and indicators for measuring social sustainability have been selected and described within the three different stages of the waste management system chain (temporary storage, collection and transport and waste pre-treatments and treatments): - social acceptability: odour, visual impact, convenience, urban space, private space, noise, traffic, complexity and risk perception. - social equity: distribution and location of containers, employment quality. - social function: recycling/destination, direct employment creation. A simpler and more objective set of indicators has been developed which support informed decision making at the level of required transparency. With help of these indicators it is possible to detect the substances, and hence also components of the waste management, contributing most to the overall social impact. The social indicators are scientifically justified, practical and easily understandable for a decision maker. The targeted End-Users of these indicators are various actors involved in waste management planning and monitoring: i) primarily, in the cities and regions with fast growing economies (for planning assessment an optimisation) ii) secondly, in any other European regions (for monitoring, benchmarking and optimisation). Namely, the target End-Users are: - Municipalities and local/regional authorities responsible for spatial and waste management planning and development in cities - Institutes and Consultancies developing or/and evaluating local waste management plans - Official and decision makers who verify the proposed developed strategies for waste management in cities and regions.

1. Results description The Waste Prognostic Tool - a practical software tool for waste management planners with highly improved accuracy - is the core output of the results No. 23501 - Data on waste generation trends-, which represents the extensive and essential database which has been exclusively used for the development of the prognostic model for waste generation (Result No. 23502). The tool (respectively the underlying model) enables the estimation of future municipal solid waste generation (MSW) and composition by main fractions for cities on a high level of planning accuracy over a period of 10 or more years. Compared to existing models, the accuracy is outstanding high for estimations of total MSW generation (The median error for forecasts over 5 to 22 years lies at 0.6% per year), whereas estimations for MSW composition can be made only on much lower level of accuracy due to limited data availability. Only a small set of social and economic indicators is necessary for forecasts. Thus a good trade-off between accuracy and user-friendliness could be achieved. Quantitative effects of measures for waste prevention and increased separate collection are considered. Using this model, it is possible to plan waste management systems with appropriate capacity thus functioning efficiently in both economic and environmental terms. 2. Dissemination Dissemination focuses on providing sustainable decision support for all parties involved in local/regional waste management planning: Local and regional authorities, institutes and consultancies as well as officials and decision makers. Within the project period, these groups were reached with different types of publications (see documentation): Scientific articles (8 finished, 2 in progress), oral presentations at conferences (6), popular scientific articles (2) and poster presentations (2). Together with these publications, the software tool including manual in the handbook (available in six languages) are made available at the website of this project (http://www.lca-iwm.net) in order to enable broad use of this tool. 3. Use potential The Waste Prognostic Tool can be applied for the development of long-term waste management plans in European cities or regions with urban structure. It is especially interesting for regions with rapidly growing economies (consecutively also waste amounts) such as in Southern or Central-Eastern Countries. Decision support is needed as knowledge on how estimating future waste amounts is completely missing in the most cases. Waste forecasts are as a rule carried out without consideration of socio-economic changes. 4. Key innovative features Key innovative features cover firstly the high predictive quality of the model concerning total MSW estimations, secondly appropriate trade-off between usability/user-friendliness (small number of available indicators) and planning accuracy, thirdly the integrated implementation of municipal measures (waste prevention and separate collection) in waste prognosis methodology and fourthly the new way of integration of qualified waste forecasts in life cycle assessment-based modelling of waste management systems. 5. Current status The development of the tool and its verification and improvement of practicability, the development and publication of the model description and manual and deliverables were completed. More than 10 publications were finished and were published or are, at this moment, in press. More publications as well as one related PhD-thesis are in preparation. 6. Use of the results Results will primarily used in the form of the provided software tool by the targeted end-users that will use the decision support tool themselves or that will use them to consult municipalities or local/regional authorities. Additionally the results are planned to be used scientifically: Firstly it is planned to implement the method in Asian and Latin-American countries, secondly the tool will be applied by scientific partners in the field of waste management planning and thirdly the statistical model is planned to be further improved and refined in the framework of a PhD-thesis. 7. Expected benefits Accurate forecast of waste generation is an indispensable step in waste management planning. The quantifiable benefit of a forecast with higher accuracy can only be measured ex-post, i.e. after the prognosis period that is unfortunately not possible. A growth forecast that is out by only 1% can lead to a deviation of more than 10% of the total waste generated over a planning period of 10 years. Under- or over-estimation thus has significant consequences in terms of additional investment and operating costs. Using the Waste Prognostic Tool in connection with well-funded forecasts of the used social and economic indicators is highly probable to lead to a more appropriate capacity planning. Aside from the factor costs, also other impacts deriving from facilities, e.g. environmental impacts are affected.

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