Servicio de Información Comunitario sobre Investigación y Desarrollo - CORDIS


NEMESIS/ETC Informe resumido

Project ID: ENG2-CT-2001-00538
Financiado con arreglo a: FP5-EESD
País: France


The NEMESIS model provides baseline scenario describing national and sectoral trends for European countries (the 15 European members plus Norway) on 2005-2030, and thus highlights main challenges that Europe should meet in the next 25 year.

The European growth does not exceed the 2% on the whole period (In 2030, GDP growth is 1.56%). Ireland gets the strongest economic growth (2.5% in average), Italy the weakest (1.23% on average)

A first European challenge is to catch foreign demand, given that economic growth in some non-European areas, especially in BRIC is high and could offset the weak internal demand in Europe. In the baseline scenario, before all, sources of growth come from foreign trade. European exports grow much more than the other GDP components, 3.1% on annual average.

However, actual gains from outside market will depend on European countries ability to create niches of products, while staking on differentiation of goods in particular thanks to an increasing effort in Research and Development.

Europe Growth and employment is lowered by downtrend population and labour supply.

With a fall in total European population by 0.16% on average annual growth rate (United Nations medium forecasts), European consumption growth is restricted (1.68% in 2010 to 1.3% in 2030), even weighting on consumption per capita (1.47% in 2030), and slows down investment (of which growth rate is 1.27% in 2030 against 2.06% in 2010). Some specific sectors suffer more than the others, as for construction of which production growth clearly decreases, 1.42% in 2010 against 0.43% in 2030.
As from 2010, Europe knocks against drop in working population, -0.3% per year on the 2010-2030 period, despite a slight increase in labour participation rate. The labour force scarcity creates wage inflationary pressures (4.4%in 2030). Facing low working population and rise in their production costs, European firms rely less on labour. Employment growth rate drops from 0.2% in 2005 to about -0.5% in 2030 and households, less employed and whose real wage are at a stand-still since 2025, restrain their expenditure.

Scarcity of labour occurs in a context of sectoral tendency to specialization (in favour of equipment goods and services, in particular communications and services of renting and business activities), and therefore the issue of the level of formation and skills of workers poses more crucially.

Besides, Europe faces more and more persistent problem of dependence; from a situation with three working people for one more than 65 years old people in 2005, Europe reaches less than two working people for one more than 65 years old people in 2030, what poses the problem about rise in expenditure as those of health and more pressingly, of how financing retirements.

European economies should face sustained oil price (69$ in 2030). But, this context should not weaken a lot European economies, since inflation rate, higher at the beginning of period with a price rise of 3% remains more restrained than in outside. This restricted impact is explained by the fact that firms reduce their production costs while exploiting factors productivity and also by taxation weight, which limits effect of energy price rise. However, some sectors are more touched as Inland transport services (with production growth of 1.5% on average).

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Paul ZAGAME, (Coordinator)
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