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APAME Résumé de rapport

Project ID: ICA3-CT-2002-10024
Financé au titre de: FP5-INCO 2
Pays: Syria

Seismic hazard along the Dead Sea Fault (case study in Syria and Lebanon)

Although a large amount of paleoseismic and archaeoseismic data were collected and important results on the long term behaviour of seismogenic faults and related return period were provided in APAME, the absence of critical seismological data (seismometer and accelerometer recordings) prevented us to construct a robust seismic hazard analysis and map of the DSF for engineering purposes. An attempt has been made for Lebanon and previous studies provide some scenarios of seismic hazard assessment. However, a definitive parametric seismic catalogue is needed that covers S.E. Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Jordan, with all precise locations and magnitudes of historical and instrumental seismic events. Recent earthquakes should provide important results on the velocity structures, crustal behaviour at depth and surface and rate of active deformation along the DSF. Also, we need to know the frequency-magnitude distribution (f-m), not only within the region covered by the APAME project, but also in the different tectonic sub-regions. This information is not available. One has to note that the (f-m) distribution for the DSF is discontinuous in time, involving long periods of relative quiescence.

This is a typical feature of the DSF, which cannot be ignored. A collaboration with the Lebanese American University allowed to test and model earthquake damage to columns of Baalbek (Jupiter Temple) and other building structures. The approach consists on the use of state of the art numerical modelling to predict the effect of earthquake damage on large masonry structures. The model needed earthquake loading and a source-rupture/time history of ground motion and acceleration. The reference earthquake is the Gulf of Aqaba earthquake of November 22, 1995 (epicenter 28.76N, 34.66E, focal depth 12km, Ms= 6.2). The Peak ground accelerations 0.109g updown, 0.097g E-W, and 0.086g N-S. The modelling clearly predicts the beam characteristics of the different blocks.

Also the DSF long-term (f-m) distribution is strongly non-linear as well as clustered in space and time. So far as we know there are no non-linear hazard mapping programmes at present readily available to account for these conditions. On the other hand, this project provides evidence of past seismic hazard through archeo-paleoseismic studies that would contribute to our knowledge. Moreover, an important observation is the total lack of a region-specific ground motion attenuation law. Any attempt to produce a hazard map, glossing over all these difficulties for the sake of convenience, and to over-simplify the model, is likely to produce fictitious results, which will be not only unscientific but also misleading for the end-user.

Informations connexes


Reda SBEINATI, (Head of laboratory)
Tél.: +963-944-287334
Fax: +963-116-112289