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DITTY Résumé de rapport

Project ID: EVK3-CT-2002-00084
Financé au titre de: FP5-EESD
Pays: France

Scenario analysis on selected case studies

The scenario analysis (WP6) was implemented in the process of coastal lagoon management, a complex task requiring interdisciplinary research and active interaction with end-users and stake-holders.). Southern European lagoons have the particularity of being subject to strong anthropogenic pressures due to tourism and/or heavy shellfish/fish farming. They are highly productive ecosystems and yet very sensitive in their functioning. The challenge for local authorities and managers is to forecast possible futures in order to anticipate at best possible evolution.

The proposed scenario analysis is to take into account all relevant drivers from agriculture, urban and economics activities that affects the aquatic environment, at their present stage and considering possible future trends. Special emphasize was given to watershed land use (population growth, change in agriculture practice&) as materials transmitted from river catchment have a major effect on coastal ecosystems (eutrophication, bacterial contamination&). In order to cover a wide geographical range, five Southern European lagoon-estuarine systems were chosen representing an extended series of ecosystems, conflicting water use needs, and management resource requirement. For each site, the definition of different scenarios and their prioritisation by end-users were addressed.

Based on this preliminary work, simulations were performed using various modelling tools and methodologies, which integrate relevant information, i.e. geomorphology, hydrology, biology and ecology, in compliance with environmental policies and socio-economic development plans. Different kinds of mathematical and analytical models (e.g., biogeochemical, hydrodynamic,..) developed in previous work-packages of the project were used for that purpose.


Catherine ALIAUME, (Full Professor)
Tél.: +33-4-67144765
Fax: +33-4-67143719