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en en 153857 243964-345-3 Executive Summary:The purpose of the project was to produce vector-borne disease models driven by climate variability and climate change trends from climate models and observations; ultimately leading to predictive tools designed for the needs of end-user health professionals...

Executive Summary: The purpose of the project was to produce vector-borne disease models driven by climate variability and climate change trends from climate models and observations; ultimately leading to predictive tools designed for the needs of end-user health professionals and decision makers. These predictions were designed for important diseases affecting human populations and livestock in Africa especially malaria and Rift Valley fever. The QWeCI consortium consists of 13 partners from nine countries with six based in the EU and seven from mostly low-income African countries. The project had two sub-contacted stakeholders (the national programmes for malaria and livestock) from Senegal. The Malawi Ministry of Health become another effective stakeholder during the project and participated in the workshops and training structures. The project had three pilot field studies in Senegal, Ghana and Malawi. State-of-the-art European seasonal forecasting systems were coupled with malaria disease transmission models and the results disseminated to African partners and their stakeholders. The project ran from February 2010 to July 2013. Outputs from the project include 52 deliverable reports, 29 milestone reports, most of which are available from the project website (www.liv.ac.uk/qweci), and to date over 29 peer reviewed journal publications hitting major top rated journals. A number of these publications are cited in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Reports. The contributions of the outputs so far have been significant and include the following: The evaluation of existing climate model outputs for their suitability to quantify health impacts in-region through the tailoring of model products; The use of these model outputs by scientific partners and in discussion with decision makers in region in Africa; The evaluation of climate-disease prediction models producing disease risk maps that have been disseminated; The establishment of long-range WiFi which has been shown to be viable to allow the central monitoring of local disease outbreaks and the communication of disease risk. Further, the QWECI project has made significant improvements to the vector-pathogen-host database at the Liverpool based National Consortium for Zoonosis Research which is available to registered users; QWeCI has set up an atmospheric database and Multi-Agency System portal based in Cologne and a climate model downscaling portal in Santander. Stakeholder communication was an important feature of the project with regular six monthly newsletters produced and widely circulated, stakeholders participated in a number of project workshops and many had regular interactions with project partners. Dissemination of the project products is a key success of QWeCI, the LMM and VECTRI models have been interfaced into a pre-operational malaria early warning system. Feedback from African partners has assisted tailoring of the products of the early warning system to the needs of end-users in the target areas in a long-term process still underway. This system is driven by the ECMWF seamless monthly-to-seasonal model outputs to create a seamless forecasting system. At the moment these plots are being field trialled with users in Africa. Results have been disseminated at conferences, in workshops and by project and peer reviewed publications, and QWeCI will feature in a project commissioned forthcoming short film that will be made available through the project website. QWeCI was an ambitious and complex project driven by a team with the required skills and balancing European and African scientific and operational know how. QWeCI achieved all of its key objectives with little deviation from the original plan. The assessment of the project performance was undertaken and key findings and recommendations for future projects are made in the final report. In summary, the achievements of QWeCI are multi-faceted and extensive, and in particularly the development of a pre-operational demonstration forecasting decision support system that went far beyond the original research plans and remit of QWeCI and represents a major advance in applied early warning systems. The progress would not have been possible without processing of existing data, building new model developments, gaining new field data to parameterise and evaluate the models and most importantly involving in-region scientists and users to evaluate the forecasting systems. The project has continued and extended collaborations between African and European institutions, and most importantly has connected, supported and inspired the next generation of African and European scientists who made key inputs to the project. Project Context and Objectives: Background and need for project This project brings together and refines the best available knowledge of climate variability, disease dependence on climate, factors governing infection rates in humans and animals, and the needs of end-user health professionals. The result is a set of valuable predictive tools that anticipates disease outbreaks and optimises the ability of health professionals and decision-makers to manage some of the most important disease affecting human populations and livestock. Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are the cause of major loss of life, hardship and economic stress in many African countries. Seasonal and interannual climate variability is a primary control of vector and pathogen survival and vector breeding success, leading to disease emergence and spread. A perfect storm of environmental drivers, as well as extreme events that cause floods and droughts are key factors in the dynamics of epidemics. Infection rates depend on vector and pathogen abundance, their proximity to human or animal hosts, and on environmental variables including temperature, vegetation and the availability of standing water, which supports aquatic stages of insect vector life cycles. Climate variability alters temperature and precipitation which, by increasing the area, depth, number and duration of breeding ponds, directly influences vector survival rates and abundance. Climate variability and continuing global-scale climate change are predicted to alter weather patterns across the globe, leading to changed distributions of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation. These are the key drivers for many vector-borne diseases. By predicting spatial changes to climate, existing models infer changed distributions for many VBDs on regional and global scales. Knowledge of how current and future climate is likely to influence infection patterns will have profound implications for planning and disease prevention and control, and be a valuable tool for health professionals and government bodies in countries susceptible to VBD impacts. Objectives The overall objective of QWeCI was to combine state-of-the-art climate models, weather-dependent transmission parameters for key African diseases, and local knowledge about population behaviour, disease, vectors and transmission patterns. The modelled outputs can be added to local knowledge of population behaviour and known local transmission patterns could thus generate knowledge of infection risk appropriate to the decision-making of health professionals on the ground and the policy-making of governments of susceptible countries. The work involved integration of the most reliable climate-based prediction models with models of climate controls on disease risk variables for VBDs on short, medium and long timescales, and their translation into meaningful information, rapidly conveyed to end-users. The active participation of target populations was ensured by integrating stakeholder communities in decision-making from the start of the project. The three main aspects of the project were model development and refinement, development of decision support systems, and training and dissemination for participants, stakeholders and communities. Three target areas in Africa were identified based on previous work carried out by the Centre de Suivi Ecologique, the Institut Pasteur de Dakar and the University Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar (Senegal) on remote sensing and mapping of Rift Valley fever and malaria for the Ferlo Region of Senegal around their long established observing site at Barkedji; the particular situation in Kumasi (Ghana) where malaria is continuously prevalent despite seasonality in the form of a distinct dry season; and the high prevalence of malaria alongside the development of long-range, low-cost WiFi in Malawi, which is building the potential to connect several hospitals and clinics in a rapid communication network. The project objectives were nested in seven themes and 15 work packages (WPs) designed to fulfil the requirements of the project in two divisions. Scientific development (7 WPs) involved creating and linking databases combining climate, disease and climate-disease associations; development of dynamic disease models; down-scaling and refining existing climate models into an integrated and seamless forecasting system capable of making localised forecasts as well as short term and decadal predictions; and development of seamless, refined climate-disease models that can make reliable predictions and projections of disease infection risk patterns on long and short timescales that are spatially focussed. The second division, concerned with implementation of the climate-disease model findings (7 WPs), focussed on development of site-specific decision support for health workers facing repeated outbreaks of malaria and Rift Valley fever, and exploring the potential for two-way communication of information using long-range WiFi facilities installed in health facilities in Malawi. An essential central feature was the inclusion of local professionals and communities in training and dissemination programmes in order to provide experiential feedback and recommendations on the effectiveness of the model and decision-support systems. Lastly, a project management WP ensured the smooth running of the project and the early recognition of unanticipated occurrences. Fulfilling the obligations involved evaluating existing climate models for their suitability to quantify health impacts in target areas, developing ways of tailoring model outputs to the prediction of climate-dependent health impacts in forms appropriate to the needs of local end-users, evaluating and refining climate-disease prediction models for each selected disease type, producing disease risk maps, evaluation of site-specific environmental factors influencing disease occurrence, and assessing the ability of long-range WiFi to allow central monitoring of local disease outbreaks. In addition, the project sought to improve the vector-pathogen-host database at the Liverpool based National Consortium for Zoonosis Research, and to develop ways of quantifying the usefulness of climate driven disease model predictions. The QWeCI project delivered all of it deliverables (52 in total) and all of its Milestones (29 in total) as well as over 29 per reviewed journal publications (8 in Open Access), the published papers are in top ranked journals and the leading journals in their field. All the deliverables and milestones that are public (PU) are available on the project website. The deliverables that are currently restricted are those with key data and figures currently in review for journal publications. Once the papers are in press these deliverables will be made public. Project Results: As a lead into the main results section the details of the objectives and the principle activities towards these objectives of the grouped work packages of the project are listed. Specific objectives were to: 1. Assemble a database of state-of-the-art knowledge of infectious diseases, especially malaria and Rift Valley fever, including models that successfully describe pathogen and vector life cycles; 2. Integrate a suite of the most useful seasonal, decadal climate variability prediction and longer term climate projection models to enable improved prediction capabilities; 3. Combine these into an integrated and seamless forecasting tool to allow mapping of disease risk, based on post-processed weather and climate predictions and projections, with outputs tailored to the needs of regional and local scientists, health professionals and decision-makers; 4. Develop decision-support systems in pilot projects in African countries to disseminate model outputs to decision-makers and end users according to their needs in understanding specific climate and weather impacts on health, leading to better targeting of spending and planning on different time-scales; 5. Assist development of improved WiFi links between health professionals and scientists in Malawi; 6. Programme of training, exchange visits, seminars and conference outputs. Summary of the key Work Package activities towards the objectives 1. Climate-health relations. The initial approach was to enhance an existing pathogen database at Liverpool, but this idea was soon deemed inadequate for the requirements of QWeCI, so we designed and validated a new database, (in conjunction with the ERA-NET NERC funded ENHanCE project) the ENHanCEd Infections Diseases database (EID2) to carry world-wide information on disease pathogens and their hosts (including insect vectors) and where they occur. This was built on a model that includes an algorithm that automatically optimises the predictive ability of pathogen presence only data. We added spatial distributions of climate and disease pathogen data at the same resolution to enable mapping according to values for temperature and rainfall. The EID2 database was later expanded with further climate sensitivities of environmental and vector variables, a researcher interface and a visualisation tool. We then created a mapping tool for current and distributions of disease risk areas (WP1.1). Meteorological datasets, station time series data, and satellite-derived weather information and predictions from 12 sources, plus daily and monthly precipitation estimates were assembled into a database for atmospheric data (http://qweci.uni-koeln.de) that produces user-friendly outputs for public use (WP1.2). This database is a major community resource that will last beyond the end of QWeCI and key sharable data sets have been made available to the AMMA database to ensure there is a further system for users to access these datasets. A key part of the climate data work was the quantification of the variability of climate drivers, and a review of the interactions between climate and human and animal disease pathogens and vectors, mainly malaria and RVF. This was necessary to clarify disease dependence on climate variables. Development of a climate-RVF model focussed on Senegal and trade routes into Mauritania, and a statistical malaria model for Malawi were important in contributing to validation of the outputs (WP1.3). 2. Dynamic health models. The development and validation of disease models for the regions of interest has been a major focus in QWeCI. The work package has seen development by project partners of a rich variety of new malaria and Rift Valley fever models, incorporating dynamic, semi-dynamic and statistical approaches. The models have been tested against observations and different modelling approaches have also been compared. In preparation for development of a single host- single vector, and a single host-two vector and a multiple host model for malaria and RVF, we compared and validated the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) and other dynamic disease models (VECTRI developed within QWeCI at ICTP) for malaria. The LMM, developed in EU FP5 DEMETER and refined in EU FP6 ENSEMBLES, uses knowledge from local experts and the literature to predict malaria occurrence. It is driven by temperature and rainfall data from observational, gridded and forecast sources. In the interests of efficiency, we replaced the intended early delivery of a generic model with specific disease models and a generic model was developed towards the end of the project. Using the LMM, we used observational malaria datasets for Senegal and South Africa to validate seasonal patterns with local expert feedback, and developed a new technique for calibration of rainfall forecasts. A user-friendly interface to the Liverpool Malaria Model was developed through the Disease Model Cradle (DMC) and is available from the project website (http://www.liv.ac.uk/qweci/project_outputs/), it was shared amongst the project partners via two training workshops held in 2011 and the software has allowed users to test the LMM and explore parameter settings for their region. This has enabled project partners and stakeholders to run disease simulations based on climate and non-climate drivers and which were used also by PhD students in Senegal (WP2.1). 3. Seamless atmospheric integrations. We applied calibration and downscaling methods to multiple state-of-the-art climate prediction models, and developed a prototype statistical downscaling portal. This enabled development of a seamless, unified prediction system as well as an ability to estimate uncertainty based on statistical and dynamic downscaling (WP3.1). In order to provide an assessment of forecast quality, we investigated the characteristics of African temperature and precipitation patterns on seasonal and interannual scales, and extended the capability to assess decadal scale prediction. We incorporated feedback from potential users into an assessment of forecast outputs. We also tested current state-of-the-art forecast quality with models based on dynamic and statistical analyses (WP3.2). 4. Coupled climate-health projections. The integration of outputs from climate models with models of disease emergence and dynamics was achieved by the development of steady-state and dynamic versions of the LMM. These included the ability to incorporate monthly outputs and to automatically correct for bias. A major achievement of QWeCI has been the development of a prototype integrated operational malaria forecasting system that has been set up at ECMWF, with further development and support this will become one of the major legacies of the project. The VECTRI and LMM models have been installed and run at ECMWF. If made public this system could provide dynamic, state-of-the-art ensemble malaria forecasts across Africa. The skill of predicting malaria using the ECMWF System-4 seasonal forecasts has been assessed for Senegal, Ghana, South Africa, Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea, Malawi and Botswana, where the System 4 forecast shows significant improvement against those from earlier forecasting systems utilised in FP5 DEMETER and FP6 ENSEMBLES. We incorporated decadal hindcasts from GloSea (UK MetOffice) to create and validate the seamless prediction system for seasonal to decadal forecasts and for long-term projections of climate change. After limited skill was found in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcasts, the decision was made to focus on decadal to centennial timescales and use a multi-scenario multi-model ensemble of global climate model projections from the CMIP5 archive and regional climate model projections for Africa from CORDEX (linking to our sister project FP7 HEALTHY FUTURES). The super-ensemble of climate forecasts/scenarios were integrated with five different malaria models, including two from QWeCI, with high level publications submitted. This work will have a high impact and will be disseminated through the IPCC WGI further QWeCI papers will be in the WGII report. We also developed a GIS based, multi-agent decision-support system for RVF in Senegal, which is driven by rainfall data (WP4.1). 5. Integrated decision-support systems in three pilot projects. The need for area-specific decision support systems for health officials and workers in the pilot areas in Senegal, Ghana, and Malawi was met by establishment of a web-based Java framework to facilitate end-user input to help to tailor model outputs to needs on the ground. This feedback, combined with new data on disease emergence and site-specific environmental data, was used to inform development of a multi-agency system (MAS), based on monthly, seasonal and decadal forecasts of climate-disease interactions. The MAS was built with Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), Information Systems (IS) and Monitoring Tools (MT) designed to link environmental variables with patterns of disease emergence. A pilot system and the first versions of the MAS used the LMM and a statistical model for RVF. These were combined with remote sensing of standing water in Senegal, which provided data for the MT. The MAS also forms a key component of a Disease Early Warning System for vector-borne diseases. The UoC web portal has provided a further user-friendly interface to LMM and VECTRI, where users are able to run online two malaria models (WP5.1). In Ghana communications were established between a range of stakeholders including scientists working in human health and animal health at six sites in rural, peri-urban and urban areas of the pilot region. Laboratory and environmental data were collected from health facilities and from the field, including on linkages and mechanisms of disease emergence, transmission and spread, and on climate variability and changes in different local environments. The collection of data on weather, physico-chemical variables and mapping of water bodies, occurrence of Anopheles populations, characterisation of insect feeding success rate, measurement of water temperatures, and surveys of householder experiences were important for quantification of the effects of rainfall and water temperatures on malaria incidence (WP5.2). In Senegal the climate and non-climate environmental drivers were studied for their effects on vectors, pathogens and transmission rates. This makes good knowledge of the disease dynamics of malaria and RVF in the target areas critical for building useful climate-disease models. For three rainy seasons (2010-1012), we studied the roles of meteorological and environmental variables through collection of field data on climate, hydrology, vegetation, animals, life cycles of vectors of malaria and RVF, and disease transmission factors. These included pond dynamics (hydrology, composition and ecology of anopheline vector fauna) and area of ponds, which were obtained from remote sensing of water bodies and land cover change. Data were also collected on social pastoral practices, biting rates and human or animal attractiveness by the mosquitoes. The validation of the LMM for Senegal was made by using hazard, vulnerability and risk maps produced in the EU FP6 AMMA project. We also increased understanding of an RVF event in Mauritania (WP5.3). The effective use of QWeCI integrated climate-disease outputs depends not just on the quality of the information supplied but on getting that appropriate information to professionals and decision-makers in the target areas as soon as possible. Hence the early warning systems would benefit from both the rapid communication of model outputs and provision of health data from field centres to central scientific and medical facilities. After consultations with governmental and NGO bodies in Malawi, successful connection was made to St. Martin’s hospital and the Ministry of Health DSIH health database. Strategies have been developed to connect the system with other rural clinics. A first integrated forecasting system was established and an automated SDSS made operational, enabling the dissemination of malaria forecasts. We surveyed health centres as potential sources of data and potential sites for WiFi links and provided installation and support for the considerable technical problems experienced. The WiFi network is used to collect disease incidence data from the two hospitals (Mangochi Hospital with St. Martin’s Hospital in the district of Mangochi) for storage in a national database. Training was provided to local professionals on how to best use the forecasts (WP5.4). 6. Dissemination, training and assessment. The integrated climate-disease model outputs must be meaningful to health professionals and policy-makers in the target areas and countries, and their interpretation relies on appropriately trained people to make good use of the forecasts disseminated and to provide data to central databases. Thus training of QWeCI partners and stakeholders at national institutions and local health centres and scientific establishments was a priority. Successful knowledge exchange depends on effective two-way communication, and this was built-up through capacity building and promotion of a culture of holistic engagement with stakeholders. The use of focus groups was also important tools for informing and enabling stakeholders not engaged in the scientific aspects of the project. QWeCI partners were involved in the European Geosciences Union meeting in 2012, where a session on climate and health was held and several fringe meetings discussed operational and theoretical aspects of QWeCI. A programme of short and long-term exchange visits was established which will continue after the project end through the associate exchange programmes of project partner ICTP (WP6.1). We directed knowledge exchange through a web site and produced newsletters, reports and a brochure to facilitate dissemination of QWeCI results to stakeholders and the general public as well as project partners. We also held workshops and symposia, which included presentations that provided context and detail about the project outputs (WP6.2). As part of the project a workshop/school was organised at partner ICTP in 2011, including training classes demonstrating the LMM DMC and the VECTRI model to participants from developing countries. The success of this event led to a follow up school in 2013 focussing on climate and health, supported by QWeCI and sister project HEALTHYFUTURES, which also provided extensive training in QWeCI tools. We established and maintained communications between the three pilot projects and the European partners to monitor progress against the project schedule (WP6.3). We carried out a self-reflective assessment of the role of the field programmes and their interaction in the project. 7. Management. Active engagement with partners and close monitoring ensured smooth operation of the project as a whole. We created a project website (www.liv.ac.uk/qweci), held two planning and progress meetings and a teleconference, and held annual project meetings in 2011 (Senegal), 2012 (Nairobi), and 2013 (Barcelona) as well as kick off meetings in 2010 in Liverpool. These initiatives maintained the active engagement of partners and stakeholders in project objectives, enabled planning and scheduling of project events, and confirmed strategies and proposals for future work package stages. Minor changes were made to the scheduled programme of works because of delays and occurrences external to the project. Technological advances rendered some aspects obsolete, and personnel changes led to revisions of realisable objectives. These were minimised wherever feasible. The overall structure of the project is illustrated in Figure 1 Figure 1 Schematic of the QWeCI project work packages.  Key Results from the Work Packages Details of the results can be found in the Deliverables, Milestones and the externally peer reviewed journal papers published from the QWeCI project. The evolution of the project can be seen in the three Periodic Reports D7a,b,c and the more day to day aspects of working on QWeCI in the six newsletters D6.2e. In the sections below there are some example results from across the work packages. All of the QWeCI work packages (WPs) had objectives that are useful in themselves but also contribute to the greater project goals of gaining a greater understanding of the major vector-borne diseases encountered by human societies and the potential to anticipate and control them. The project largely concerned the integration of existing but disparate knowledge and skills to increase their usefulness and applicability to addressing vector-borne disease impacts globally. This involved meticulous scientific testing and validation of model output performance against observations over time. This, in combination with good quality data collected during the project, led to the refinement of existing models and the development of new models, including integrated models that can achieve much more than the component models alone. The end result is the ability to produce high quality outputs at local, regional and global scales in forms relevant to the needs of end users and decision-makers in the African pilot study areas. The project achieved this in mathematical, graphical and communicative stages that involved active co-development to ensure that final user needs were matched by the products. The project was structured so that the outputs of some WPs were inputs to others. The climate models give seasonal and longer range forecasts over large and country sized geographical areas. For an exploratory approach using pathogens considered in the project and a wider range the disease database enables disease risk to be estimated in response to climate and weather variables at different scales. The practical application of all of the models required detailed understanding of climate-disease relationships, whether these are simple one-to-one connections, e.g. directly dependent on rainfall, or the result of many changes and subtleties that operate to bring together conditions suitable for the emergence or spread or a particular disease. In gaining this level of understanding and incorporating it into model algorithms, the paths to disease outbreak in a particular area, be it a single event or a seasonal or interannual trend, might be predicted. The outbreak of weather-responsive diseases depends not just on rainfall and temperature but on land form and use, proximity of human or animal hosts and the behaviour patterns of local people. Indeed, anything that influences the ecology, i.e. the breeding or biting success of vector organisms, is a controlling factor in disease emergence. This means that models developed to describe endemic or epidemic disease occurrence based on climate are enormously useful. 1. Climate-health relations 1.1 Disease Database The first stage was to bring together into an integrated system what is known about climate and weather variables, their interactions, and the known controlling variables of vector-borne disease transmission. This will enable the linkage of climate forecasts to conditions governing presence of disease vectors as well as their potential to infect people or livestock. Building a database containing accumulated knowledge of vector-borne disease pathogens was the starting point. The original plan was for partners to upload data on pathogens and climate drivers directly into the ENHanCEd Infections Diseases database (EID) by use of remote links, but innovative work at Liverpool enabled automatic entry of a greater amount of relevant information in a way that increased efficiency and accuracy. We achieved this by use of a critical review tool algorithm, which is able to detect pertinent information directly from the published literature in on-line databases and apply it to a new EID2 database in a spatially useful format. We also built this pathogen information into the EID2 at the spatial resolution appropriate for climate data. In discussions between partners and stakeholders, we agreed the exact scope of hosts and pathogens to be covered by the project. We then reviewed the literature of the disease database for climate-relevant relationships. In this way we were able to identify evidence of the impacts of climate drivers on disease dynamics. For each disease, QWeCI partners wrote a literature review on the effects of climate on disease dynamics, including vector population dynamics, factors affecting transmission, host organisms at risk, and pertinent local environmental variables that can be affected by weather (D1.1a). To facilitate public access to this information, we built a web interface that allows participants to search information from nucleotide sequences reported to the NCBI Nucleotide database as well as the peer-reviewed literature on pathogens, and their distribution. We gave the EID2 the ability to map disease pathogen data at the same spatial scale as the climate data by including information on the geographical distribution of pathogens. This makes climate-disease associations directly comparable, and allows the generation of spatially explicit frequency histograms showing mapped grid blocks based on the temperature and rainfall patterns entered into the database. The spread of pathogens could also be depicted using pathogen and disease data from the pilot projects. The EID2 can export data on the climate of regions where pathogen presence has been reported and where there is no evidence for presence; this information can be used in ecological niche modelling, which can, for example, generate predictions of regions suitable for the pathogen under both current and future climate conditions. Sophisticated error control methods reduce the likelihood of an incorrect prediction, but some errors are persistent and require supplementary information about pathogen distribution. The database is functional with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, Rift Valley fever and the tick-borne infection bovine babesiosis caused by the pathogen Babesia bigemina. Country-level statistical modelling used generalized linear modelling (GLM), and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) techniques. Models were evaluated using a k-fold cross-validation procedure (k=5) in terms of their predictive skill as given by the ROC skill area metric (RSA). The independent contribution of the different variables was also assessed in the context of GLM modelling using a technique involving hierarchical partitioning in order to gain an insight into the importance of the climatic/human/animal factors in explaining disease occurrence. Our results indicate that no added skill was attained with the use of the more sophisticated MARS technique. Model skill was poor in the case of B. bigemina infection. Models for P. falciparum and particularly Rift Valley Fever attained moderate/good skill, indicating the potential usefulness of the models developed. Regarding variable importance, the results indicate that at the country-level, diseases can be modelled using bioclimatic variables as predictors, with little or no added benefit from the inclusion of host density predictors (Fig. 2). The exploitation of the data stored in EID2 has enabled a straightforward development of the models presented, leaving the door opened to further advances in disease distribution modelling using this database. The presence or absence of pathogens was also modelled at a 0.25 degree square resolution using an expectation-maximisation (EM-) algorithm which was applied to generalised additive modelling (GAM) with a binomial logistic error distribution. Within the modelling exercise, the effects of (1) using different numbers of iterations within the EM-GAM modelling, and (2) the use of different Pi values (examining the effect of changing the prior probability of a detected absence actually being a presence within the data) were explored. A further Pi value (3) which estimated (using a combined assessment from data from EID2) the surveillance effort for a pathogen in different countries and of the general surveillance of all pathogens in one country relative to other countries was also examined. Model outputs suggested that (1) models converged after 20 iterations; (2) the Pi value to use within modelling cannot be estimated using the data; and (3) a model which incorporates surveillance adjusted Pi values should be utilised as the best Pi estimate for EM-GAM modelling. The modelling exercises that have been undertaken within this work have demonstrated the utility of the EID2 as a source of presence information for pathogens around the world. The use of the EM-GAM technique could provide national and global modelled outputs which could be used as a comparator for disease model outputs, developed using other methodologies. As such, the technique and modelled outputs for specific disease pathogens from EID2 could prove to be of great use within the disease modelling community in the future. Future work using this technique will need to include testing the accuracy of the outputs of EM-GAM modelling exercises, by comparing outputs with test data for disease pathogens; either from previous modelling exercise outputs describing the presence of pathogens, or real-world data. Figure 2. The relative importance of each explanatory variable for each of the disease models. See D1.1b for further details. The web interface of the EID2 (http://www.zoonosis.ac.uk/EID2) has been completed, and the database is publically available (after user registration) on the world-wide web. The database allows interrogators to look at information in the context of the evidence available within the literature about disease pathogen spatial distribution. It is also possible to visualise the predicted current environmental niche of pathogens, modelled using the EM-GAM algorithm and specific climate variables, thus completing the objectives of the work package. 1.2 Atmospheric Database In parallel with the disease database, we assembled an atmospheric database to hold meteorological datasets, time-series data and satellite-derived weather information. These climate data were produced on scales ranging from daily to monthly, and accompanied climate and weather predictions from selected sources. A key function of the database (http://qweci.uni-koeln.de) was its accessibility for all QWeCI partners. This was done by defining a metadata catalogue template on Java. For ease of dissemination and use by others, we provided the data in user-friendly and standard formats, including Comma-Separated Values (CSV), the Network Common Data Format (NetCDF) and the geographic information metadata XML format (eXtensible Markup Language; ISO 19139). The database comprises: Data from the (QWeCI partner) ECMWF 40 year Re-Analysis (ERA-40); The ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim); The Global Historical Climatology Network version 2 (GHCN) dataset; Historical meteorological time series from Ghana (GMet); The Global Precipitation Climatology Project 1° daily dataset (GPCP v1.1 1dd); The Global Precipitation Climatology Project 2.5° monthly dataset (version 2.1) (GPCP v2.1); The Federal Climate Complex Global Surface Summary of Day version 7 (GSOD) dataset; Kumasi Precipitation Time Series (KuPTiS); Weather reports from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS); The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (NCEP-1); Owabi Automatic Weather Station data (OwabiAWS); SYNOPtic reports from the DWD archive (SYNOP); The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and (TRMM 3B42 V6); The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and other daily and monthly precipitation estimates (TRMM 3B43 V6). In order to increase availability, we transferred the QWeCI-developed KuPTiS and OwabiAWS datasets to the AMMA database (http//:amma-international.org/about/index‎). Our aim was to pick the best available climate models and validate them for errors and forecast skill. This meant testing the potential of models for errors in spatial and temporal predictions of temperature and rainfall on daily, monthly, seasonal and interannual scales, including phenomena such as the West African monsoon (WAM). Included in these assessments were the seasonal forecasting systems of QWeCI partner ECMWF (System3 and System4) see work package 3.1, which we assessed for potential systemic bias, which was then addressed through technical refinements. This detailed assessment and validation work led to several improvements in existing models, and developments and further applications of others. Figure 3. Screen shot of part of the database showing short profiles of the data held. Taken from D1.2c.. QWeCI partners in Ghana collected daily rainfall data from 191 weather stations covering the whole of Ghana but mostly in the denser populated parts. These data, representing about 47% of potentially available rainfall data over the period 1990 – 2010, contributed to the metadata of the QWeCI atmospheric database. Quality checks found the data to be reliable in most cases. Historical time-series rainfall and temperature data from 1994-2011 were augmented by new data collection where existing data were insufficient to optimise predictive skill. For example, data for pond water temperature, depth, breadth and position (using GPS) as well as presence of mosquito larvae were collected from ponds in the area of Kumasi three times daily over ten weeks. Much of the work at this stage focussed on identification of the relationships between atmospheric variables and the control variables of vector-borne disease transmission, and assessment and reanalysis of meteorological data and outputs of existing models. The work underpins studies of the feasibility of predicting disease incidence from meteorological inputs. Biases were investigated in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the operational forecasting system at ECMWF and reported in D1.2b where the figure 4 below is taken from. Figure 4. Comparison between ERA-I (left top) and the Ensemble Forecasting System (right top) and the GPCP precipitation data set for July. The lower panel shows the correlation between these data sets. It can be seen that similar biases are found in the reanalysis and forecasting system. Care need to be taken when using data from models and bias corrections especially for rainfall and bias correction before the data can be used in an impacts model are normally required. 1.3 Climate-disease Associations Working alongside the two major databases, the tasks was to put them together by development of techniques that could apply information from both to plot the likelihood of disease outbreaks associated with particular climate and weather conditions on useful geographical scales. A review document for planners has been compiled with inputs from a number of partners D1.3a. We planned a summary exercise looking at the most recent literature on priority climate-related disease in Africa but it became obvious that a focussed and selective review of the published literature was necessary. It was important to test published climate-disease associations with new datasets produced from the QWeCI pilot areas. Much of the literature data mining work was in fact carried out in Work Package 1.1 in building up the relevant sources for the EID2. A statistical model were also developed Task 1.3d in Malawi incorporating socio-economic conditions such as the degree of urbanisation, education and poverty that are important factors in vector-borne disease transmission, but within these, demographic information such as age group, population density, housing conditions (e.g. number of rooms, presence of toilet), the use of insecticide-treated nets, and the presence of local health facilities were significant considerations in the vulnerability of human populations to infection. Important environmental considerations were geographical region, characteristic environment (i.e. lowland, lake shore, highland, mixed), annual cycle, temperature, rainfall, temperature-rainfall interactions, and geographical position (i.e. altitude, longitude, latitude). All of these factors were used to improve the fit between model outputs and observed conditions, and integration of the data into models for calibration, refinement and testing continued throughout the project. We simulated malaria risk as a function of various climate drivers by building increasingly complex models that combine social and environmental factors with climate information. Malaria transmission is influenced by weather conditions including temperature and rainfall patterns that affect both the ecology of mosquitoes and the availability of suitable breeding sites. Climate and weather predictions were produced on a grid system for Malawi. We interpolated the simulations in order to apply them at smaller scales, and laid the local socio-economic and environmental data on top, fitting them to the gridded data on climate and topographical variations. The relationship between malaria morbidity and climate variables is shown in linear and polynomial plots in the figure below. The model captures the observed annual cycle of malaria well, and has measured success in representing interannual variations Working with EID2 in Work Package 1.1 we tested the reliability of statistical modelling tools for presence-only data and for predictive skill, and we modelled the occurrence world-wide of Rift Valley Fever and infections from Babesia bigemina and Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections at the country level. We used a hierarchical partitioning technique to assess the role of variables independently in explaining disease occurrence, i.e. climate, humans and animals. In Senegal Rift Valley fever is becoming a major concern of the relevant government livestock and health ministries. Climate-modelling of late rainfall events emerged as an important study area. Recent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in Senegal and trade routes into Mauritania were instrumental in revealing the importance of isolated rain events after the apparent retreat of the rains. The rainfall events in question were captured by the Global Forecasting System at NCAR model three days beforehand, it is not possible to evaluate such rainfall events from a seasonal forecasting system. Cattle had by then been brought in from their wet season pastures to drink at the ponds. It is known that when large rain events refill the ponds, it causes hatching of Aedes mosquitoes that are already infected with the virus. The meteorology of these events is a key new area studied by QWeCI. Satellite imagery, especially cold cloud plots, can be used to track large rainfall events that lead to the recirculation of the virus. The result is that we have been able to estimate RVF risk over the entire region of West Africa. Spatio-temporal data were also collected for RVF in Kenya. Based on earlier work the RVF climatic risk has been mapped over West Africa by Caminade et al., 2011. The method is based on the detection of dry spells (lasting for 6 days minimum) which are followed by a large rainfall event (above 20mm) during the late rainy season (Sept-Oct). This climatic feature has been observed during the four major RVF outbreaks that occurred over northern Senegal and has also been recently tested for Mauritania for four major outbreaks (1998, 2003, 2010 and 2012). We used TRMM satellite data (version 7) from WP1.2 to carry out this analysis. The link between climate variables and risks of RVF, malaria and babesiosis in Africa has been investigated in conjunction with WP1.1 (see Deliverable D1.1.b for further details). For example, the importance of bioclimatic variables was confirmed by the relative importance of some bioclimatic variables compared to population-related ones. In the case of B. bigemina, the most important variables were the precipitation of driest month and temperature seasonality. _______________________________ 2.1 Development of Dynamic Disease Models A central tenet of the project is that outputs must be tailored to the needs of end users, and that this is best achieved through feedback and input from professionals in the three target regions of Ghana, Senegal and Malawi. We wanted to develop a unified climate-disease model capable of describing multiple hosts and vectors and flexible enough to be applicable to any district, but it became evident that there was a need for a locally-installable model with a simple-to-use front end and the ability for users to load various datasets and basic visualisation tools. This was met through development of a multi-platform system designed to allow users with limited computational experience to run and process data in models. The new, user-friendly Disease Model Cradle (DMC) (DMC-LMM is available here http://www.liv.ac.uk/qweci/project_outputs/ in the Software section) encapsulates different disease models as dynamic libraries and can display the results of model runs graphically. On-line availability allows partners to run models locally using their own meteorological datasets and to validate the results with epidemiological field data. The DMC is built to hold the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) and other models such as the new QWeCI-developed RVF model. We used the LMM to simulate malaria infection patterns over Senegal, Ghana, Malawi and South Africa, and have made refinements and extensions so the model can accommodate more than one host species. The LMM library has been installed and tested with a seamless forecast/hindcast dataset at ECMWF, and is available online within the DMS. Local data from Senegal has been used to test the DMC, using the LMM. Testing of the LMM using spatially-calibrated and reanalysed datasets found the outputs to be realistic in matching reports from local experts for the regions, but they underestimated the northern extension of the malaria epidemic belt in the Sahel area and overestimated malaria incidence in south-west South Africa. In Barkedji, Senegal, we collected field data for three entire rainy seasons 2010 to 2012 deriving parameter settings to use in the dynamic models. A workshop with stakeholders was organised by CSE in Dakar in November 2011. Morse and Heath (UNILIV) contributed to the workshop. This was well attended by national, regional and local representatives from Senegal. Almost 40 delegates attended from local, regional and national groups. In the workshop we explained the importance of the research and how climate impacted on vector-borne diseases as well as running a hands on session with the Liverpool Malaria Model. The village leader from the Barkedji also attended and said how important the research was for his village. It was clear at the start of the project that we would gain more impact by running more than one dynamical malaria model with the ability to run pan-Africa. Therefore, it was decided that a model should be developed and coded independently of the UNILIV team by ICTP. Although the central core and the approach in VECTRI is very close to that of LMM it does have a significant number of differences. The VECTRI malaria model, developed by QWeCI partner ICTP, is a dynamical grid-based model that visualises the occurrence and distribution of the Anopheles gambiae complex infected with Plasmodium falciparum. We refined the model by writing generalised interfaces to allow both observational and model data to be used to drive VECTRI (Tompkins and Ermert 2012). We added a new hydrological component for ponds that includes water losses through evaporation and gains from runoff and infiltration and also accounts specifically for the local population density. In this way, the VECTRI model can be run at high spatial resolution and is the first regional-continental scale model to successfully simulate the observed differences in transmission intensity between rural and peri-urban environments in Africa. We adapted a QWeCI-developed RVF model for specific disease characteristics by making its functionality generic. This enables any disease model to use the generic core, giving sufficient flexibility to allow disease, vector or host specific sub-models to be built for specific tasks. The QWeCI Vector-Borne Disease Library (VBDLib) enables multiple host and multiple vector disease models to be created using the generic code. We have made the VBDLib available on-line via the DMC. The core library has undergone testing and a RVF two-host two-vector model has been configured and implemented. As mentioned in section 1.3 above a number of other models including statistical models were produced by QWeCI partners. IC3 constructed a dynamical stochastic differential equation (SDE) model that can reproduce malaria dynamics in Senegal, and tested it for other regions of Africa where conditions are similar to the semi-arid areas of Senegal. We managed to acquire a very good and reliable dataset for Malawi and Ghana. Using this, we divided human populations into five sub-sets, viz. susceptible to infection, exposed (i.e. a non-infectious carrier), infectious, asymptomatic weakly infectious, and recovered but carrying parasites and infectious. The model reasonably well captures the seasonal endemic region as well as the shifts in mean malaria state after interventions by medical professionals. We have worked to investigate an underestimation in the model of observed disease of maxima and minima. Fig 5 shows the model compared with observations, showing the close agreement but underestimation of observed disease dynamics. Figure 5. The time series of monthly malaria cases in Dielmo, Senegal with the corresponding IC3 SDE model output. Partners at IPD developed a statistical Bayesian model to assess climate impacts on the spatial and temporal abundance of RVF vectors in Barkedji, Senegal. To study the importance of weather and local environmental factors in influencing mosquito abundance, we used data from fortnightly collections at 79 sites including villages, temporary ponds, shrubby and wooded savannah, steppes, and barren lands at different distances from the permanent ponds at Barkedji. Cumulative rainfall up to 20 days prior to mosquito collection was measured as an environmental variable. Relative humidity, maximum temperature and rainfall were associated with high vector abundance, with maximum densities in and around pools. Results showed a good fit between the model and observed seasonal distributions for Aedes vexans in all landscape types and for spatial variability in Culex poicilipes for all landscape types except for barren lands and steppe. The results confirmed that climate affects vector abundance in both species, and provided useful knowledge for surveillance and control of RVF vectors in the region. We modelled Culex spp. mosquitoes with the same structure as the LMM dynamic mosquito model, while the Aedes mosquito complex was modelled for larval development using a rainfall-driven trigger. This is because Aedes spp. eggs require a dry period followed by wetting in order to develop. Fig. 6 illustrates these features of the host component of dynamic RVF model. Figure 6. The host component of the RVF dynamic model. CSE liaised with UNILIV for the development of the disease models. A report on the effectiveness of the dynamic and semi-dynamic modelling approaches for malaria and RVF was part of a successful PhD project (Ahmed Tidjane Cisse at UCAD) We modelled projections of climate change by comparing five different malaria models (MARA, MIASMA, LMM_Ro, VECTRI and UMEA) with other observed malaria endemicity estimates over Africa for both climate data and climate change projections (Deliverable D4.1.b). This work is now submitted and in review (Caminade et al.) the paper summarised estimated impacts of climate change on malaria globally with different emissions and population scenarios and an ensemble of five different malaria models. Overall, as a result of the activities performed within this WP, the following significant results can be highlighted: • The Liverpool Malaria Model has undergone further parameter calibration, development/extensions and has been tested against observations collected in the project and against other models/mapped products. • Development of the new malaria model VECTRI has continued and the model has been published and validated against various sources of observations. • Developed, modified and made comparisons of LMM and VECTRI dynamic malaria models leading to a monthly to seasonal seamless operational forecasting system which is weekly updated, with a corresponding 18-years hindcast set see section 4.1. • LMM and VECTRI contributed to the ISI-MIP impact model intercomparison project with bias corrected CMPI5 GCM data sets, with the results published in two peer reviewed papers and presented at an international conference in Potsdam in 2013. • The Epidemiological modelling toolkit for climate sensitive disease (EpiCS) generic disease modelling library has been developed, tested and used to create and new dynamic Rift Valley fever model (LRVF). The use of EpiCS allows the expert user to build multi-vector and multi-host diseases transmission models. The new system has been run as LMM and compared with the original model output. A RVF model is written and is undergoing further development. _______________________________ 3.1 Downscaled and calibrated seamless seasonal atmospheric forecasts The ability of health professionals and decision-makers in the target countries to monitor the health of populations and to anticipate approaching health concerns relies on the reliability of seasonal predictions on a regional scale. In order to address this we used a multi-model downscaled and unified approach. This method provides knowledge of climate and weather variables and estimates of uncertainty in the predictions on spatial and temporal scales and in a form useful to other WPs. The challenge of calibrating and integrating daily, monthly, annual and decadal models and forecasts into seamless climate and weather outputs at small, medium and large spatial scales was centred on the development of a gridded observational dataset and a prototype downscaling portal. The statistical downscaling portal was adapted for the use and validation of new downscaling techniques. For different African regions, acceptable temperature forecasts emerged from different statistical downscaling techniques. Rainfall forecasts were less good. Testing of the predictive skill and reliability of models in various contexts is a critical main plank of output verification. Using the best available observations for the Ghana, Senegal and Malawi pilot areas, assessments were made using 40-years worth of hindcast data to analyse different combinations of potential predictors over different geographical zones within the pilot areas. These assessments considered periods in excess of 20 years in nearly all cases. Results are included in the downscaling portal to allow access for testing of new configurations and datasets. Reanalysis and forecast-driven simulations for seasonal predictions have been run and tested with success for southern areas of Africa. Extensive validation of different statistical downscaling techniques in different African regions considering both "perfect" forcing conditions (ERA-Interim) and a multi-model hindcast. Results are acceptable for temperature (with inter-seasonal correlations in the range 0.6-0.8 for different seasons/stations in Ghana and Malawi), but are poor in general for precipitation. Dynamical downscaling (with regional climate models) has been tested with promising results over the western and southern Africa domain. The regional model is not only able to reduce the wet bias of the driving GCM over most part of the domain but also enhances the temporal correlation between the forecast and observation over most part of the domain. A user portal is available at https://www.meteo.unican.es/downscaling/qweci Figure 7. The QWeCI Statistical Downscaling Portal – Home Page Figure 8. Data sets of maximum temperature and precipitation downscaled for selected stations in Senegal (Fatick and Ziguinchor). As well as the statistical downscaling we used dynamical methods to downscale combined seasonal forecasts for southern and western African regions using the regional climate model RegCM4 and tested the effectiveness of the technique using quantified comparisons of ‘perfect’ and forecast datasets. An improved match between rainfall simulations and observations was achieved by a reduced wet bias and better temporal correlation. We designed a calibrated seamless forecast system that produces 30-day rainfall forecasts, averaged over five day periods, and optimised for Africa. We also formulated a new calibration technique that can correct for errors in 5-day rainfall predictions in monthly and seasonal forecasts. In addition, by joining daily with monthly forecast systems, we developed a seamless weekly-updated operational forecasting system. A weekly updated monthly to seasonal seamless forecasting system using 18-year hindcasts is also operational. As the full site is not available to the public this is the public address for the project at ECMWF http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/QWECI/ This system went operational during the project and was made available to partners in the project – who continue to have access to the site. Figure 9. Stamps made of each calibrated ECMWF System 4 operation season forecast for Month 2 Precipitation for November 2013. Both dynamical, i.e. responsive to changing variables, and statistical techniques were used to optimise potential forecasting ability. Dynamical downscaling has proven potentially useful over southern Africa, following a reduction in the ‘wet bias’ in the precipitation forecasts and has also improved the temporal correlation between the forecast and observations over most of the area. 3.2 Seamless decadal predictions and projections Making projections of climate a decade or more in to the future is a considerable challenge. The importance of the Atlantic Ocean for rainfall in western Africa became evident from studies involving sea surface temperature (SST), the Atlantic Niño and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). Statistical analyses revealed that the main drivers of SST patterns are the Atlantic Niño and the AMO. We investigated the roles of coupled land-atmosphere processes in climate variation on decadal scales, concentrating especially on the rainfall over West Africa as a function of SST. We used mean weather averages for two contrasting decades on interannual to decadal scales. We did this by characterising rainfall and temperature variations of the comparatively wet decade of 1955-1965 and the dry decade of 1975-1985. When we ran simulations using rainfall records for Guinea and Sahelian region, which are the two main modes of rainfall variability in western Africa, we found that the Atlantic Niño controls Guinean precipitation while the AMDO was found to be the main influence for the long-term (multi-year) ability to predict rainfall in Guinea and the Sahel. Subtleties in SST are influenced by rainfall in the Sahel and feed back into long-term Atlantic variability (García-Serrano et al., 2012). When we compared observations in the form of rainfall records for Guinea and Sahelian regions with multiple model outputs, we identified systemic errors on a decadal scale in the forecasts of several models, particularly over the West African coastline. By comparing these rainfall indices with simulations, we could assess the predictive skill of the models by re-running retrospective forecasts using historical data as the starting conditions for the model. When observational data rather than simulations are used to restart multiple model runs, the models gain an increase in predictive skill up to six years ahead for impacts on Sahelian rainfall pattern predictions from the AMO. This advance constitutes significant progress made on the problem of prediction of the rainfall on within-season and at interannual timescales over west and southern Africa, and this is a particularly valuable tool for improving the predictive skill of climate models. We also estimated the predictive skill of the ECMWF seasonal forecast models for within-season variability over Africa as a whole by assessing the seasonal to annual predictions for each grid square. This enabled assessment of the model’s ability to predict the timing of the deep tropical convection as it migrates latitudinally across the continent. We assessed the relative advantages of combining information from dynamical and statistical interannual forecast systems, using the Guinean and Sahelian rainfall regimes. The statistical model did not improve forecast quality, but forecast reliability was high at lower resolutions. Figure 10. By using Hovmöller latitude-time diagrams for different start times of the ECMWF System4 (with 13 month integrations) the differences in the forecast June, July, August rainfall for West Africa with increasing lead time is compared to the GPCP rainfall estimates. May (zero lead time), February (3 month lead time) and November (6 month lead time). Much more work remains to be done to determine the usefulness of such a novel tool as climate prediction beyond the seasonal time scale, but it is extremely important to note that the African continent has been one of the first land areas for which the skill of the new decadal predictions has been assessed. Feedback from the potential users of this information has been sought to modify the approach to address more specific requirements. _________________________________ 4. Seamless climate-health integrations Our next priority was to optimise the efficiency and applicability of the validated climate-disease model outputs by joining them together. The end-user will thus receive unified, or seamless, forecasts on continuous scales from monthly to seasonal and from region to broad scale forecasts. A major scientific achievement of the project was the development of an integrated multi-model that can predict the likelihood of disease outbreaks in the short and medium term for specific geographical areas. A lot of time was spent in identifying and correcting bias and errors present in models. Thus we were able to enhance the predictive skill and reliability of forecasts. Refinements, especially to precipitation forecasts, improved the predictive skill of the model outputs over different applications to the extent that we were able to establish towards a proof of principle for a potential operational malaria early warning systems for epidemic areas of Africa. This is of great value because low malaria immunity in such areas increases the risk, making outbreaks less predictable. With better predictive ability of malaria outbreaks, health facilities will be able to plan and prepare for significant outbreaks, as well as save costs at times of low risk. The LMM and VECTRI models have been interfaced into a malaria early warning system, and feedback from African partners has assisted tailoring of the product to the needs of end-users in the target areas. Two malaria models (LMM and VECTRI) were driven by the ECMWF seamless monthly-to-seasonal model outputs to create a seamless forecasting system. For the first month weekly forecasts are made using the monthly system and forecasts with longer lead time are made with the System 4 seasonal system. Bias-correction of the combined forecast models produced the seamless output to drive the malaria forecasts. The project partners towards the end of the project had access to weekly updated malaria model runs – as this site is restricted to the consortium and public general site is listed here http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/QWECI/. The forecasts are updated weekly see Fig. 11 the outputs currently produced are for the Effective Inoculation Rate (EIR). Here a mask has been applied to highlight the forecasts for regions that have the most variability for this start date based on the hindcasts. The unmasked plots (not shown) have malaria forecast in the Congo, but the application of the mask highlights that there is little interannual malaria transmission variability in that region (holoendemic). Further hindcast information showing the malaria climate and malaria variability for each start date are available on the web site. At the moment these plots are being field trialled with users in Africa and adjustment to the products and masking may be made in future. If the site is able to gain continued funding and support to go operational then a further selection of bespoke tailored products can be designed follow consultation with uses. At the moment this is a demonstration site to show operational capabilities. It is the first in the world with real time operational malaria forecasts with the ability to have user chosen lead times and options. Any previous seasonal malaria forecasts were one-offs once per year, and available for single countries as national averages using simple statistical disease models. Here using this system the users can see the evolution of the malaria season and eventually will be able to look at past performance of the models. It should be emphasized that the accomplishments with this pilot, pre-operational demonstration forecasting decision support system went far beyond the research plans and original remit of QWeCI and represent one of the major advances of the project. Further evaluation and operational rollout of forecasts must be left to a future project as further work is required for its implementation. In summary, QWeCI moved well beyond proof of concept of an operational malaria forecasting system, through a proof of technology towards a proof of principle where we can start to show the efficacy of such system. Figure 11. Shows a real time malaria forecasts with a two month lead time for LMM and VECTRI driven by ECMWF ensemble prediction systems. These plots are masked to eliminate grid points with low interannual variability e.g. the Congo basin. The skill of integrated model malaria runs with ECMWF System 4 in West Africa was mixed. Although skill was found on the epidemic fringes and this may be of great use to decision makers. We wrote reports on the predictive skill of the malaria models for southern Africa and on the seamless calibrated products for disease-related variables. We validated System 4 for predictive ability for rainfall and temperature simulations against observations from west and southern Africa. This is important for producing malaria forecasts for target countries. We ran malaria seasonal forecasts for predicting high (upper tercile category) malaria years using System4 October forecasts for the March-April-May malaria season in Malawi for high malaria years. These forecasts when run against an ERA-Interim control showed accurate prediction with eight years (malaria seasons) of significant malaria outbreaks and also correctly predicted fifteen year where no significant risk was forecast. The model system also made five ‘false alarm’ predictions and missed one outbreak, the ROC area is about 0.9 showing that System 4 is skilfully capturing UT malaria events with respect to the control simulation (driven by ERA-Interim) (see D4.1.a for details). One of the steps in forming the operational system was to see what skill was available from an operational system compared with the early R&D systems developed within the FP5 DEMETER and FP6 ENSEMBLES projects. We choose to test this in Botswana where there is a published observed clinical malaria index available. Results in Table 1 show that System-4-driven forecasts for high events are nearly as high as that for the ERA-Interim (‘perfect forecasts’) reanalysis-driven runs. Table 1. Tier-3 skill ROC Skill Scores (ROCSS) for LMM prediction of low (LT) and high (UT) malaria events in Botswana relative to Botswana Malaria Index (Thomson et al, 2005). Model LT UT DEMETER multimodel 0.84 0.67 ENSEMBLES multimodel 0.85 0.69 DEMETER-ECMWF 0.67 0.44 ENSEMBLES-ECMWF 0.81 0.59 SYSTEM-4 0.77 0.89 ERA-Interim 0.72 0.91 In Senegal we used the DMC-LMM to investigate endemic and epidemic malaria states in Senegal. Using local information on human mortality and the effects of drug interventions in the study villages for which long-term malaria incidence data were available the model could be refined for local usage. Further work led to the development of a final model that incorporated a range of additional local predictor variables including age group, annual cycle and the number of health facilities per inhabitant. In Senegal a signal-fitting technique to develop a method to simulate time-series data for an integrated multi-agency Rift Valley fever decision-support system, which uses rainfall data to simulate vector dynamics. Fig. 12 below shows a schematic of the interaction between the environmental conditions, the vectors and Rift Valley fever as simulated by the model. Figure 12. Vector dynamics for the Senegal partners Rift Valley fever model. Given the limited skill of the decadal ensemble hindcasts in reproducing climate trends, and climate interannual variability for different regions over the globe (MacLeod et al., 2012), we did not consider driving the dynamical Liverpool Malaria Model using simulated rainfall and temperature from the decadal hindcasts at the daily time step (see QWeCI Milestones M4.1.b “Pilot Integration of the existing dynamic malaria model with a decadal ensemble prediction system” for further details). Instead, we decided to develop and use a simplified version of the LMM which uses monthly rainfall and temperature as inputs to the transmission model of the standard LMM. This LMM version is tested and validated against four other malaria models (MARA, VECTRI, MIASMA and the WHO-Umea statistical model) within the current study. We now focus on decadal/centennial projections using an ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections driven by the latest RCP emission scenarios; using these, we estimated and discussed the different sources of uncertainty (related to the malaria model / climate model / emissions scenario). The details can be seen in D4.1b which is restricted as it has been recently submitted for publication. _________________________________ 5. Integrated decision-support systems for the three pilot projects 5.1 Development of integrated information and decision support systems Two critically important aspects of the work done by and in conjunction with African partners were the provision of knowledge and feedback on the applicability of the climate-disease model outputs to health professionals and decision-makers on the ground, and the supply of location-specific data to enable the models to reflect conditions in the target regions in effective ways. Effective methods of stakeholder dialogue designed to learn more about the needs of African decision-makers were important in construction of an effective spatial decision-support system (SDSS). This, along with information systems (IS) and monitoring tools (MT) comprise the multi-agency system (MAS) that is a core achievement of QWeCI. The MAS processes information from climate and disease model outputs and combines these with environmental information specific to the target locality. It can then enable environmental and climate predictors to be expressed in terms of disease outbreak risk for defined periods and areas. The decision support systems pull together much of the effort made in the other work packages and allow it to be used by project partners and other interested users http://qweci.uni-koeln.de/. This system represents a major legacy of the project, along with the atmospheric database, as it allows users to upload their own data and run all of the major models from the project including LMM and VECTRI. In addition, exemplary model runs are available from the statistical RVF model for Senegal can be accessed. The operational forecasts although are much more computationally intensive and are supported elsewhere as described in 4.1. The ability for researchers and decision makers in region to run the system is important as the outputs of climate-disease models predict the conditions in which vector-borne diseases can be expected to become prominent. For example an outbreak might be anticipated if optimum temperature and rainfall occur in a specific area. Data on local environmental and socio-economic conditions are thus a key part of a predictive tool, and clear, user-oriented information is fundamental to the facilitation of decision-making by health professionals. Monitoring tools contain the tools necessary for maintaining observations of particular variables, e.g. a IS for standing water was constructed for Barkedji. Information systems are essentially data banks that are specific to a particular function. An IS developed by the Malawi Ministry of Health is also linked to this website. It provides disease reports and data, an archive of disease incidence data, graphics of disease time-series data, the ability to map disease incidence using GIS calculations of disease outbreak indicators. It can support early warning of disease outbreaks, evaluation of the impact of controls and interventions for disease outbreaks. As well as the assessment of the health value of training and outreach programmes, and reports and analyses on disease incidence. From the beginning, QWeCI objectives for ease of use and flexibility necessitated the use of Java, Linux, Apache Tomcat, and the Google Web Toolkit to ensure open-access knowledge distribution and flexibility in setting up different interrogation systems. Our key priorities were functionality of monitoring and early detection. We used the LMM as a demonstration pilot system for the early MAS, and used remotely sensed satellite imagery to support an IS for standing water in Senegal. Meteorological and health statistics data were built into the MT for near-real time disease incidence in Malawi. Constructive dialogue with stakeholders helped the project make the SDSS, IS and MT systems of the MAS meaningful to end users in the three pilot areas in Ghana, Senegal and Malawi. We developed a statistical RVF model to identify environmental variables in relation to disease outbreaks. We built a system that used local parameter settings for pilot regions, e.g. a rural area of Kumasi. This enables users to access the system to predict past epidemics for specific locations using hindcast data. In future regional parameter settings could feed into the LMM and VECTRI operational systems for the construction of regional forecasts. A web-based RVF model responding to bi-weekly temperature, humidity, vegetation and rainfall data was developed for the disease operation system. By default, the model is tailored to Barkedji data to give examples of inputs and outputs. Outputs are for temporal predictions for specific areas and landscape types. We validated the seamless malaria forecast system by incorporation and testing of a suite of data and models from Kumasi, Ghana. We used observational and simulated data converted by downscaling (work package 3.1) to be locally applicable using ECMWF System4, running LMM and VECTRI to make seamless forecasts and malaria control runs. We set up a Multi Agency System (D5.1.b) comprising LMM, VECTRI, the pond IS for Barkedji, the statistical RVF for Senegal and a Health Early Warning system for Kumasi to include meteorological, entomological and human biting rate data alongside other malaria variables. This system is an IS on the web-based Java framework. With the support of the French Space Agency, we made updates with regard to the monitoring of ponds for standing water by improving the algorithm that controls water body detection from radar satellite data. We also made clarifications to the understanding and functionality of the IS for standing water, and provided data and equations for relationships such as depth to volume, depth to area and volume to area for compatibility with the LMM within the MT 5.2. Ghana pilot project: peri-urban malaria In the three countries chosen to contain the target areas for field pilot studies, a main priority was to collect data where none or insufficient existed, and to relate these to both the requirements of the climate-disease models and decision-support systems and the environmental realities of disease and vector dynamics in the target areas. In Kumasi, Ghana we built on some capacity developed during FP6 AMMA. The effectiveness of climate-disease models depends on good understanding of the cumulative effects of weather conditions on each stage of mosquito life cycles. We made detailed measurements of pond dynamics and vector life-cycles, which provided important data for the multi-agent models. Temperatures of water and air were measured at different times of day in peri-urban areas of Kumasi. Correlations revealed the close predictive connection between maximum daily air temperatures to midday pond water temperatures, which is an important predictor of larval development. Field studies of entomological and environmental variables included the identification of Plasmodium species, collection of health laboratory data, and identification of high-risk homes and areas. The data were used to equip studies with definitive knowledge about disease risk in the specific target areas. Interpretation of the impacts of climate variability, e.g. rainfall patterns, temperature and relative humidity, when human and environmental factors such as land use, land use change, vegetation cover, topography, buildings and road construction projects are accounted for, revealed that malaria prevalence correlated well with climatic conditions. In particular there is a general increase in malaria with rainfall and a decrease when the rains cease. We analysed climate, malaria and entomological data from hospitals and all study sites and weather stations. Malaria data from the different health facilities in Ghana has culminated in a good database for the pilot area. Analysis has shown a correlation during the study period between increased rainfall and malaria incidence. Monthly data (1980 – present) from four meteorological stations in Kumasi has been plotted and correlated with malaria data. Figure 13: The inter-annual variability of rainfall, temperature with the simulated inter-annual malaria transmission and asexual parasite ratio between 1980 and 2012 for Kumasi using LMM. The top panel annual rainfall (RRa; in mm; blue line) and annual mean temperature (Ta; in oC; red line). Middle: Annual Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIRa; red line), annual Human Biting Rate (HBRa; blue line; right scale divided by 1000), and annual CircumSporozoite Protein Rate (CSPRa; in %; green line). Bottom panel: Annual mean parasite ratio (PRa; in %; black line), the annual minimum (PRmin,a; in %; blue line) and annual maximum (PRmax,a; in %; red line) of the parasite. The malaria seasonality (right scale; in month). The monthly Entomological Inoculation Rate (coloured squares) of month when the monthly Entomological Inoculation Rate reaches at least 0.01 infectious mosquito bites per human per month. The month with the maximum transmission is marked via an "X". 5.3 Senegal pilot project: RVF and malaria After agreement with stakeholders on the data collection strategy, we made detailed characterisations of pond dynamics in relation to rainfall, ecology of the vectors of malaria and RVF, and pathogens for three rainy seasons, 2010-2012. We also made studies of biting rates and vector population dynamics in Barkedji. We used remotely sensed data for estimations of water body and land cover variables, and we installed and maintained automated weather stations. The 2011 rainy season in Senegal provided valuable data on the presence of ponds in relation to rainfall, the composition of anopheline species supported by them, the population dynamics, life-cycles and biting rates of malaria and RVF vectors, other vector survival factors, and host attractiveness. Analyses of the 2010 RVF outbreak in Mauritania were useful in verifying assumptions and understanding the evolution of the outbreak. We estimated the entomological parameters used in the LMM for six Senegalese villages having four different land-cover classes. This included inspecting female mosquitoes landing on people and those collected using pyrethrum spray in dwellings. We inspected the insects for blood meal, source of blood, presence of Plasmodium, and estimation of inoculation rate. We also carried out transmission experiments on field-collected RVF vectors to determine their role in the infection cycle. Further data on rainfall, pond size, position and longevity, and comparison with vector life-cycles has revealed important pathogen survival indicators, and studies at daily frequencies on interactions between mosquitoes and human communities has provided valuable data for the malaria database. We have correlated these with climate variables. Data on species assemblages, biting rates and the proportion of infected bites per person per year have shown that there is frequently twice the infection rate during the wet season than during the dry season, but this is dependent on the local environment. We recorded four species of anopheline mosquito, mostly A. gambiae, and determined their biting rates. It was found that they increased and became more likely to bite as the rainy season progressed, though there was significant variation between villages. Blood meals were taken from human, bovine, ovine, chicken and equine hosts, with sheep and goats being the most favoured host. Statistical analyses were undertaken for population dynamics, the attraction of vectors to the main hosts, frequency of different vector (Anopheles mosquito species complexes) around temporary pools. Infection experiments, (within the national malaria programme’s studies) showed that vectors differ in their ability to infect in the weeks following the meal. By integrating different datasets we facilitated more detailed and meaningful interpretation of the data based on the needs of decision-makers, stakeholders and end-users. We established the seasonal patterns of vector population dynamics and estimated the likelihood of infection according to land use, e.g. villages in shrubby savannah suffer less compared with villages in wooded savannah. Figure 14. The proportion of mosquitoes found to feed indoors and outdoors at six villages in the Barkedji district. We completed the GIS Health Early Warning System. We also validated the LMM for Senegal, and developed a refined version of the MAS for RVF. We have also used CMIP-5 climate model data for climate change projections to predict RVF emergence in Senegal river basins. We have achieved a greater level of understanding of the emergence of RVF in West Africa because the dynamics of malaria and vector populations are now much better understood. 5.4 Malawi pilot project: disease risk dissemination by long-range WiFi technology Problems with the WiFi network dominated the early part of work in the Malawi pilot project. Civil unrest and hardware problems both posed considerable difficulties for the pilot project in Malawi. Monitoring of the link performance involved developing a program to monitor throughput and ‘latency’, confirm the quality of received information at specific times, and save the results in a log file. This was installed at Malawi Polytechnic, with receiving servers at Zomba Peak and Mangochi tower. Throughput was acceptable or good, and information losses were compatible with the length of the link (160 km), and at around 1 Mb per second was sufficient for data transfer, e-mail and web browsing with only intermittent episodes of quality loss, but the quality (RTT) was not sufficient for a video call but often sufficient for audio. Installation of a photovoltaic source would solve issues of power failures that affect the country. Identification of suitable health facilities in the field, and developing collaborations with the Malawi Ministry of Health, the Malawi Meteorological Service and NGOs, e.g. Baobab, were crucial early steps in order to secure access to data and better understand the needs of stakeholders. Consultations with government offices and NGOs determined the forecasting system needed for the pilot areas of Malawi. Eventually, working and stable links were made between the St. Martin’s Clinic on the eastern shore of Lake Malawi in an isolated rural location and Mangochi district hospital and a central database in Blantyre in a demonstration project. This showed how point to point wireless technology could enable isolated clinics to access the new DHIS2 web-based health database of the ministry of health, enabling near real-time uploading of disease incidence data. In addition the link is of sufficient band-width to allow interrogation of the web-based pilot forecast system. A complementary outcome of the system is that health workers in the rural clinic can now consult with medical specialists based in district hospitals using e.g. SKYPE via the system. Once the operational criteria were established and confirmed, health and science personnel were able to upload disease incidence data to the national database. Integrated climate-disease forecasting using VECTRI is under evaluation for Malawi with the aim of an operational uptake of the system during 2014. a) b) Figure 15. a) Diagnostics from the long-range WiFi system b) Health technicians at St Martin’s Hospital with the new installed WiFi link. Although they had laptops previously they had to drive an hour to the nearest Cybercafé to send an email. _________________________ 6. Dissemination, training and assessment Regular and constructive communications between partners and stakeholders were vital to the successful completion of the project, but it was also important to publish QWeCI results in the peer-reviewed literature and to present them at international scientific meetings and conferences. A full programme of visits in both directions between African and European partner institutions was complemented by staff and student placements and tele-conferences. Disseminating the findings and outputs of the project in clearly understood ways involved workshops and training seminars for local stakeholders, NGOs and governmental agencies. 6.1 Targeted training and exchange visits Many partner to partner visits were made through the project, often supplemented by frequent and extensive teleconferencing, using Skype, which tended to replace focus groups where it was found to be more efficient. These Skype meetings have become an essential monitoring and networking tool for the Senegalese, Ghanaian and Malawian project teams. Scheduled project meetings were augmented by attendance of QWeCI partners at scientific conferences including the European Geosciences Union meeting (Vienna), where a QWeCI-organised plenary session on climate and health was held, as well as several fringe meetings to discuss progress on project objectives. Exchange visits between core European partners and the main Africa partner proceeded successfully, and African partners spent time at European institutions. Two colleagues from KNUST spent 3 and 6 months at ICTP, and colleagues from UNIMA attended workshops and spent longer periods at European institutions. Two students from UP and staff from CSE, UCAD and ILRI visited UNILIV. The resulting scientific relationships are expected to be supported for much longer than the QWeCI project itself, and these are important achievements in the development of the science and collaborations between institutions. 6.2 Workshops and dissemination QWeCI websites at UNILIV, ICTP, UoC and ECMWF were linked to provide updated information to partners and stakeholders. The main website is at the coordinator’s institute the University of Liverpool. A workshop was held at the Malawi Meteorological Service in Blantyre and at the Ministry of Health in Lilongwe , Malawi, and a second workshop at Dakar, Senegal involved international partners and major Senegalese stakeholders including policy-makers and NGOs. A bi-lingual brochure was produced and distributed in paper and electronic versions to all partners, and at international climate meetings attended by QWeCI partners. A symposium was held at ICTP in September 2011 which included a workshop for young scientists from around the world with many attending from Africa and a number of these from QWeCI partners. The workshop had a strong climate and health theme and included hands on session with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) within newly developed interface the Disease Modelling Cradle (DMC). This was used by as a training session and a feedback development session on the model and its interface. A workshop was held in Dakar in November 2011 running LMM-DMC with a range of stakeholders and decision makers, again valuable feedback was gained and a number of delegates installed a copy on their laptops. Some continued to work with the model in the subsequent months. During the October 2012 QWeCI annual meeting in Nairobi, we made LMM-DMC available for download. A further unscheduled training event was held at ICTP in April 2013 which provided further opportunities for training in the use of climate-health tools developed within QWeCI. Newsletters and reports were published according to the project schedule, and additional relevant information, e.g. on the Healthy Futures project, were disseminated to stakeholders as they arose. A joint QWeCI-Healthy Futures symposium was held during the 4th Annual East African Health & Scientific Conference, Kigali, Rwanda, fulfilling the scheduled D6.2f symposium, originally scheduled for Pretoria. The side meeting was well attended and had some prestigious keynote speakers from outside the two projects. Further it was the first meeting of the two projects and knowledge of QWeCI was taken up by the East African delegates. We organised a School on Modelling Tools and Capacity Building in Climate and Public Health in 2013 at ICTP, Trieste, with around 40 attendees from developing countries and staff and students from QWeCI partners. A web site for the workshop is available (http://cdsagenda5.ictp.trieste.it/full_display.php?smr=0&ida=a12175). Partners have attended and given talks and posters at many conferences including the Open Science Meeting of the WMO World Climate Research Programme, 2011, EGU including our own QWeCI-HealthyFutures session in 2012. QWeCI was represented at the 4th International AMMA conference in July 2012. More recently we gave four papers at the 2013 African Climate Conference (http://www.climdev-africa.org/acc2013) Arusha, Tanzania and two papers and ran two sessions for the Africa 2013 Ecohealth in Côte d’Ivoire (1st African Regional Conference of the International Association on Ecology and Health and Second African meeting of researchers in ecosystem and human health approach, http://www.csrs.ch/Africa2013/eng/index.php). QWeCI researchers also attended the international climate impacts conference in Potsdam in June 2013. We have produced the twice annual newsletters that include information about the project and its partners and the non-technical summary for end-users. 6.3 Quantification and assessment of pilot projects Discussions in Senegal with the National Malaria Control Program and Directorate of Veterinary Services revealed that stakeholders expected QWeCI to produce a functional dynamic modelling system with the ability to monitor and predict malaria outbreaks, identify the key factors behind transmission, and develop methods of predicting emergence of the RVF virus several weeks before an outbreak. The project has produced an operational system for malaria prediction that works for regions where the seasonal forecasts are reliable (good) enough to drive the malaria models. For RVF much progress has been made but we have found that in West Africa the outbreaks are related to late intense rainfall events that are difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The scientific progress made during QWeCI has indeed contributed towards a functioning easy to use, predictive system. Data for vector-relevant environmental criteria collected in the field can be mapped and supplied to scientists and decision-makers with access to modelling tools, and disseminated to health professional through meetings and publications alongside the materials needed to intervene in disease evolution. In summary D6.3a reflected after compiling information about the three pilot studies with the following suggestions. Regarding (a) continuing and/or extending existing pilot projects and (b) identifying potential regions and countries in which products and project technology could be beneficial, the results of the pilots in Ghana, Senegal and Malawi suggest the following factors should be considered when considering the feasibility of further projects: Technical: is the project technically possible? Will the model work well enough to deliver expected health impacts? What initial analysis can be done to identify candidate regions? How will the results be disseminated and what actions will be taken? Is it advisable to focus on one region in depth, or to attempt to diversify the project across multiple regions? Economic: what are the costs and can the impacts on health be quantified? Who will fund the feasibility study? Who will fund ongoing operational use? How will the impacts be quantified and monitored? What hardware is needed (weather stations, networks, etc.), costs, ongoing maintenance, etc. Technology support for example sources of data and costs: meteorological, entomological, other. Legal: what are the legal, ethical, IP issues, etc. Consider limitations if human net landing catch method for mosquitoes is not allowed for ethical reasons, i.e. additional costs/resources for other methods, limitation of data accuracy via other methods. Organisational: which organisations are involved and will they provide the resources and accept the changes needed? Identify the stakeholders in the region (local, regional and national government, healthcare, etc.). Early engagement of the stakeholders is recommended, e.g. running workshops illustrating possible products. Who is authorising the project? Who will run the models, validate and disseminate the results on an ongoing basis? - are there junior staff members who can respond to day-to-day project needs? Skills/capabilities/resources gap analysis. Who will take action when the results are disseminated? Scheduling: can the project be completed in an acceptable timescale? Is the country susceptible to political instability? Do the project goals overly rely on one academic or is expertise spread across a large team? Longer term legacy: Does the project have longevity post-funding? Does the project provide sufficient capacity building to ensure maintenance of hardware and software systems and databases post-project? Do the goals of the project lead to operational systems that will require additional funding for their maintenance? What are the general prospects to gain funding from alternative sources post-project? The QWeCI project involved a wide ranging set of research goals in a possibly unprecedented project in terms of its complexity, since some of the research goals were specifically written with operational forecasting products in mind for the post-project legacy. In addition, the platform of research involved three specific and disparate and geographically distinct pilot projects in three regions of Africa, each with very different goals and challenges. While problems and delays were experienced in all three pilot projects, it is notably that all deliverable targets in terms of research were met within the project. This report has attempted to summarize the causes for the delays, the contingency actions that were taken to address them and the general experience from each pilot in order to guide future project developments that involve similarly ambitious targets. ________________________________ 7. Management The overall management of QWeCI has gone smoothly, and the internal and external reporting, the meetings and visits programme, internal and external communications, budgetary control, and delivery of milestones and deliverables have mostly proceeded as foreseen in the planning stages of the project. Where deviations have occurred, these have been due to improved efficiencies, e.g. automation of data gathering for the initial database compilation, or to circumstances beyond the control of the project. Examples of the latter include political unrest in Malawi. Project meetings: QWeCI kick-off meeting – UNILIV, Liverpool June 2010; Annual QWeCI meeting – Dakar, January 2011; Annual QWeCI meeting – ICTP, Trieste September 2011; International Workshop for End Users – CSE, Dakar November 2011; Annual QWeCI meeting – ILRI, Nairobi, October 2012; Final QWeCI Meeting – IC3 and UNILIV, Barcelona, May 2013 Numerous local workshops; Other project management tasks included: Regular weekly email updates to all partners; sending out partner report, dissemination and publication templates for all of reporting rounds. QWeCI did have ethical review and approval from the University of Liverpool Ethics Committee RETH000378. This review was part of the project contracting process with the EC. The review permitted for the use of data from other in-region national surveillance and monitoring programmes that had their own national ethical and ministerial approval. Anonymous patient records from hospitals in Ghana, which were covered by project and local ethical approval and for which patients had provided informed consent, were made available. All other original data used by QWeCI was from mosquitoes caught and any indoor spraying programmes had informed consent from residents. Ethics was a standing item reported at project management meetings. Potential Impact: Reference is made to the key points of the original impacts and dissemination statements from the original Description of Work. As the QWeCI project was about impacts and dissemination much of the details and highlights has already been reported above, here we try and reflect more broadly on the aspects of impacts and dissemination within the project. Contribution of the projected to the expected impacts listed in the work programme The impacts of climate on diseases has a profound influence on societies in Africa through the deaths of millions of people, often children, each year and through the associated effects on development and economies through the debilitation of adults who thus become economically under-active and through drains on already under-resourced public health systems. Therefore, QWeCI helped to provide the best possible climate information integrated with disease models across a range of time scales to allow better planning and to assist in the operational provision to help fight a range of infectious diseases in Africa. QWeCI developed an effective knowledge exchange programme which was coupled with the development of decision support systems to maximize the impacts of the research outcomes on societies in Africa. QWeCI is a research project but the legacy of QWeCI will be the continued use of the integrated systems produced within the project in the countries where they are developed and the uptake of the systems, that will be flexible for modification, for use elsewhere in other regions and countries in Africa and beyond for regions that have a high burden of climate-driven infectious diseases. • Develop methods for the quantification of the direct and indirect impacts of climate and weather of various health outcomes in low income regions: The EID2 database is an output of major importance to research involving diseases of humans and livestock. We built the EID2 using quality-checked automated searches from on-line databases to contain information of the pathogens, vectors, hosts and diseases of most importance to human societies, including thousands of pathogens and 50 host species, as well as details of spatial and temporal distributions from 20 million publications. The database matches these distributions against known climate patterns globally. We developed a new algorithm for simulating the distribution of any pathogen or disease based on climate and other environmental drivers. This method is applicable to current or projected future distributions of pathogens and diseases. The modelling tool, including the R-code, is available for research by others, enabling research groups in related fields, such as climate-disease modellers, to obtain best-fit models and automatic generation of model outputs. This will have further useful application as a comparator in testing other modelling techniques. • Prioritisation of the health impacts from the viewpoint of their magnitude and graveness: We elaborated the non-climate drivers of importance to the occurrence of vector-borne diseases, e.g. socio-economic drivers such as demography, infection control measures, drug and vector resistance to insecticides, and we wrote a report (D1.3.a) that reviews the relationships between climate and disease for the use of governments and other professionals (e.g. NGOs) in planning of responses to disease outbreaks associated with environmental conditions. We wrote a literature review on climate-influenced infectious diseases specifically aimed at the QWeCI target countries Senegal, Ghana and Malawi plus South Africa. We documented the climate drivers for Rift Valley fever (RVF) and developed a demonstration of a ‘early warning’ system for the disease in Senegal. The development of the Disease Model Cradle represents a significant step forward in making disease prediction accessible, and particularly flexible enough to be useful for research and health professionals who work remotely. The availability on-line of climate-disease models developed as part of QWeCI constitutes an important advance for health research and planning. These include the open-source VECTRI malaria model (http://users.ictp.it/~tompkins/vectri/), the QWeCI multi agent system (http://qweci.uni-koeln.de/), the Liverpool Malaria Model, and RVF models. These are available on the QWeCI website (http://www.liv.ac.uk/qweci/project_outputs). Four new QWeCI malaria models, including two dynamic models (UOC-ICTP, IC3 ), a statistical model (IC3-ICTP), and a rules-based model (UP) are important contributions to the science and management of malaria. We also developed a new dynamic RVF model (UNILIV) and a new statistical RVF model (CSE-IPD-UCAD), which break new ground for research into RVF prediction and management. We achieved the first-ever analysis of forecast quality for Africa on a decadal time-frame. We established and quantified the advantages of combining dynamical and statistical models for climate variability on interannual and decadal projections for Africa. We provided several peer-reviewed articles in the scientific literature, some of which have been scheduled for inclusion in the forthcoming IPCC report. There has been additional interest on economic grounds from the renewable-energy sector. The IGBP/DIVERSITAS/IHDP/WCRP and the ESSP Planet Under Pressure 2012 meeting, the largest gathering of global change scientists leading up to the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) with a total of 3,018 delegates at the conference venue and over 3,500 that attended virtually via live web streaming. This provided scientific leadership to the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development – Rio 20+ in London July 2012, where Morse co-convened a session and co-authored a briefing paper ‘Global health for a planet under pressure’ http://www.icsu.org/rio20/policy-briefs/Health_LR.pdf. • Test on case studies in at least three different countries: QWeCI enabled three pilot projects in Africa based in Ghana, Senegal and Malawi. QWeCI invoked a “bottom-up” approach whereby each pilot projects takes advantage of local expertise and scientific knowledge and stakeholder connections to focus on a new scientific frontier or dissemination technology. Therefore, while all projects involve the analysis, monitoring and predictions of climate impacts on malaria, a major health concern, the Senegal project uses a well-established field-site research programme to extend the dynamic disease models to other vector diseases such as RVF, the Ghana project tackles the scientific shortfall in our knowledge required to tackle climate-disease impacts in a peri-urban environment, and the Malawi project couples health and information technology scientific expertise to monitor disease and evaluate health forecast dissemination procedures to remote end-users for the first time in an African setting. A significant impact was made in terms of knowledge exchange in Ghana by the use of workshops in several hospitals. Quantification of the factors of transmission in the study area was an important achievement. In Senegal the project supported six Master’s theses and potentially six PhD theses. The project has made a significant impact on reducing the vulnerability of people to both malaria and RVF in Senegal. This has been achieved by active networking and engagement with health professionals and government agencies. The successful electronic communication of malaria and other medical data is a significant advance on the former system, which used paper and the mail service to link distributed medical facilities to the central hospital data centres. Data can now flow to the central college of medicine in Blantyre, and telemedicine applications be distributed to health professionals at two health centres in the Mangochi district. • Effective transfer and use of the research results to be ensured by users and stakeholders in the project: The project created the first operational malaria seasonal forecast for Africa, and estimated the combined impacts of climate change and population change on the transmission of malaria in Africa and globally. This was achieved by completion of a large inter-comparison exercise of multiple malaria models. The models revealed an increase in malaria risk, largely as a result of population growth, an increase in malaria transmission over high areas of Africa such as the east African highlands, central Angola and the plateaux of Madagascar, a projected southward shift of the malaria epidemic belt over the Sahel, and a corresponding decrease in malaria transmission over the northern Sahel. We made great inroads into improving the dialogue between academics, health and governmental stakeholders, and also accumulating data on the conditions in which vectors become infective. We expect a strong socio-economic impact for the malaria seasonal forecasts provided stakeholder confidence in the predictive skill of the model outputs can be maintained. • Steps taken to bring about the impacts Stakeholder interaction with the project was crucial to achieving the roll out of the systems produced in the project and for them to have any impacts in reducing the incidence of infectious diseases by using forward planning and early warnings based in skilful predictions. The project utilised contacts with key stakeholders in Senegal as sub-contracted participants within the project such as PNLP (the Senegal national programme for malaria control who are part of the Ministry of Health) and DIREL (the National Livestock Service, for RVF), in Ghana – KNUST have established working contacts with the Ghana Ministry of Health, the Ghana Health Service (at regional and district levels), and the National Malaria Control Programme in Ghana, further there are strong links to the Ghana National Meteorological Service. In Malawi UNIMA have long established connections with the Malawi Ministry of Health and have been involved in the development of a Health Management Information Systems. Partners in the project are engaged in policy and research agenda activities that will allow the impact of the project to be communicated to a wider and influential audience e.g. Professor Andy Morse sits on the Earth System Science Partnership’s Global Environmental Change and Human Health (GEC&HH) joint project and through the project on the WMO World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) CLIVAR committees the Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) and the panel on Variability of the African Climate System. Professor Morse has now rotated off the WCRP and CLIVAR panels and has been replaced on the WCRP WGSIP panel by Dr Tompkins which will ensure the high level connections of the legacy of the QWeCI project. This project has become an ESSP GEC&HH collaborative project and has the endorsement of that joint project. Professor Morse maintained links with ESSP and its associate programmes especially the WMO WCRP. He will also maintain contact through WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) especially THORPEX and THORPEX-Africa. Professor Morse is currently seeking connection to the new formed WMO/WHO ClimHealth initiative. • The need for a European and International approach The research was too complex for one country to undertake alone and thus brought together the best groups in Europe with experience in climate and impacts especially health and with a strong African involvement which was crucial to the success of the project. The project brought back together a core group of partners in both EU and Africa who had worked on previous programmes such as the EU FP6 projects AMMA and ENSEMBLES. The societal implications of the work undertaken in QWeCI are extremely important and wide ranging. The diseases found in Africa have a habit of emerging in Europe, and this threat may become more important in future warmer climate. The most recent example being blue tongue, that has economic impacts on European livestock. This has raised important concerns that other vector-borne diseases could appear in Europe. These diseases could emerge being transmitted by currently widely spread, related but ‘unforeseen’ vectors or with climate change, the more established warmer climate vectors of these diseases. • Interaction of QWeCI with other research initiatives and programmes in Africa Africa is an important region for studying climate impacts on human health and animal health, for at least two reasons: (i) while inhabitants are poor in general, rural conditions render them extremely sensitive to environmental changes and associated risks including exposure to diseases and epidemics; (ii) Africa is also a delicate balance between climate and environmental variability, water resources, mosquito density, agricultural and pastoral outputs and the quality of life. QWeCI contributed to an emergence of expertise on Environment-Health issues at national and regional levels; as can be seen in its input to various major research meetings and conferences within Africa. QWeCI has benefited from AMMA, ENSEMBLES, EDEN, IMPETUS and other former EU projects. During the QWeCI project UCAD and CSE also belonged to AMMA Africa and AMMANet. Professor Amadou Th. GAYE was the co-chair of AMMANet and Dr Jacques André NDIONE was the co-coordinator of AMMA Africa Health impacts WP. ILRI were partners in AVID RVF a project funded by a google.org Predict and Prevent Programme and this complements the activity in QWeCI and it is the programme that is funding the RVF activity at ILRI. ILRI were partners in AVID RVF a project funded by a google.org Predict and Prevent Programme and this complements the activity in QWeCI and it is the programme that is funding the RVF activity at ILRI. ILRI were also involved in the Global Environment Fund (GEF) funded project entitled ‘Sustainable management of globally significant endemic ruminant livestock of West Africa’. • Interaction of QWeCI with other research initiatives and programmers within EU and Internationally As mentioned elsewhere QWeCI came out of the successful intersection between EU FP6 ENSEMBLES and AMMA project and the German funded IMPETUS project that was allied to AMMA. The QWeCI project brought in connections with IPCC AR4 Health Impacts and the extension of the impacts work into decadal scales was particularly important to the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report. QWeCI became the sister project to FP7 HEALTHYFUTURES. The projects share three partners (UNILIV, ICTP and ILRI) and this has allowed a flow of ideas between the two projects. HEALTHYFUTURES is based in East Africa and initially focussed on climate change time scales and infectious disease. It made it an ideal partner project for QWeCI based in West and southern Africa with a focus on seasonal to decadal time scales. What has occurred is that ideas and climate data sets have been used to broaden the scope of both projects without compromising the original research plans. The project grew strong ties with the ENHanCE project "Risk assessment of the impact of climate change on human health and well-being" (funded from a call under the ERA-ENVHEALTH project). It was coordinated by UNILIV Baylis/Morse and was relating infectious diseases to climate change in Western Europe through the use of the host-pathogen-vector database at Liverpool. There was a continuous exchange of ideas between the two projects. The project started in April 2009 so it was established ahead of QWeCI which allowed knowledge developed in the ERA-NET project to be shared with QWeCI. IRLI were partners within the Environment Ontology (EnvO) Consortium. They supported the ILRI RVF and other projects providing help with data descriptors for complex databases. QWeCI was able to interact with these groups as the need arose. Dissemination Following some of the major heading in the Description of Work the following section describe some of the dissemination activities of the project • Data Management External data providers did impose restrictions on access to their data but it did not restrict the delivery of aspects of the project which depend on use of these data. The development of the databases generated in the project, the EID2 disease database in Liverpool and the Atmospheric Database in Cologne are hosted on publically facing websites. Both are open to bone fide researchers and much of the atmospheric database is freely open to the public. The main project website www.liv.ac.uk/qweci has copies of all the public Deliverables and Milestones and will be maintained. As additional Deliverables that are currently restricted become public, they will be added to the website. The main reason for their current restricted status is that the results are being or have been submitted for publication and once the papers are accepted the reports can be made public. UoC’s QWeCI web portal is used to disseminate the data sets. Data sets generated by the QWeCI project were transferred to the AMMA database. • Model output management Significant infrastructure and software and know-how to access data from the climate and weather model databases reside in the project. A number of the relevant scripts and know-how have been be passed on to partners especially to those from ICPCs so that they can become full users of the databases The partners running the disease models also have databases to store model output. These model runs are available on request but server capacity does not allow them to be fully available to the public. The ISI-MIP multiple malaria model runs with the CMIP5 selected GCMs with a range of RCPs are going to be made available for the global runs through the ISI-MIP data archive (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-cross-cutting-activities/isi-mip). • Dissemination Activity The project has produced 29 peer reviewed papers (8 in Open Access) so far, and a number of the papers have been used in the forthcoming IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The journals the papers are published are top ranked and leaders in their field e.g. Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, Environmental Health Perspectives, Journal of Climate, Climate Dynamics, Malaria Journal, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Environmental Research Letters. QWeCI produced all of its 52 Deliverables (actually 59 documents with multiple newsletters and monitoring reports) and all 29 Milestones over the course of 42 months. The atmospheric database was provided on hard disk to all African partners. The QWeCI atmospheric database was advertised by the QWeCI newsletter. The project has two dedicated dissemination work packages 6.1 Training and exchange visits and 6.2 Workshops and dissemination. As mentioned in detail in 6.2 QWeCI ran and had papers delivered at a number of workshops and conferences. Workshops were held at the Malawi Meteorological Service in Blantyre and at the Ministry of Health in Lilongwe, Malawi, and a second workshop at Dakar involved international partners and major Senegalese stakeholders including policy-makers and NGOs. A symposium was held at ICTP in September 2011 Summer School on Climate Impacts Modelling for Developing Countries: Water, Agriculture and Health which included a workshop for young scientists. A further workshop was held in Dakar in November 2011 running a PC-based installation of the Liverpool Malaria Model with a range of stakeholders and decision makers. A joint QWeCI-Healthy Futures symposium was held during the 4th Annual East African Health & Scientific Conference, Kigali, Rwanda, We organised a School on Modelling Tools and Capacity Building in Climate and Public Health in 2013, with around 40 attendees from developing countries and staff and students from QWeCI partners. Project partners have attended and given talks and posters at many conferences including the Third International Space Applications conference, June, 2010, France; the conference “Modélisation Mathématique et informatique des Systèmes Complexes”, CoMMISCO, October, 2010, France; Climate and Health in Africa 10 years on, Addis Ababa, April,2011; UNFCCC meeting EU side event Durban, South Africa, November 2011; Open Science Meeting of the WMO World Climate Research Programme, Denver, USA, 2011; EGU including our own QWeCI-HealthyFutures session in 2012. QWeCI was also represented at the 4th International AMMA conference in July 2012, France and the International Society for Neglected Tropical Diseases, October 2012, London. In Ghana, a Climate impact modelling course was organized for students, researcher and health practitioners where LMM was demonstrated. COPED Conference, Dakar, Nov 2012, a paper was given at IMPACTS World conference, Potsdam, September, 2013. More recently at the 2013 African Climate Conference , Arusha, Tanzania and the Africa 2013 Ecohealth Conference in Côte d’Ivoire. A bi-lingual (English and French) brochure was produced and distributed in paper and electronic versions to all partners, and at international climate meetings attended by QWeCI partners. Web versions of the malaria models can be used world-wide and are advertised via presentations. The operational malaria seasonal forecasts could be made publicly available or could become a standard product of the ECMWF. The last aspect would require work beyond QWeCI especially on forecast validation in different regions of Africa. We are involved in the making of a film with the Africa Turns Green Partnership but this is not due for completion until Spring 2014. • Management of the Intellectual Property Rights Participants of QWeCI are governed by the Consortium Agreement and which is in line with standard protocols of ownership of knowledge and publication of scientific papers. QWeCI as anticipated did not develop any patents. • Contribution to Policy Developments QWeCI did not contain a direct policy makers training section. The QWeCI project did however interact with decision makers as well as the wider scientific community in its chosen regions in Africa and beyond. QWeCI developed strong connections with the Humanitarian Futures Project (http://www.humanitarianfutures.org/) and interacted with a number of major international NGOs. List of Websites: www.liv.ac.uk/qweci Professor Andy Morse University of Liverpool School of Environmental Sciences Roxby Building Liverpool L69 7ZT a.p.morse@liv.ac.uk +44 151 794 2874

2014-12-12 10:37:38 en 2834885 THE UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL

UK

en 3521318 en 93952 243964 QWECI de,en,es,fr,it,pl 855 FP7-ENVIRONMENT http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 13634 ENV.2009.1.2.1.2 16278 ENV.1.2.1. 16277 ENV.1.2. 16267 ENV.1 12102 ENV 855 FP7-ENVIRONMENT 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ENV de,en,es,fr,it,pl MED de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl 89981 An EU-funded project has taken great strides towards the modelling and monitoring of vector-borne diseases in Africa, driven by climate change. 2012-12-18 11:00:31 de,en,es,fr,it,pl enviro en brief en en,any /docs/results/images/2012-12/153857.jpg http://www.liv.ac.uk/qweci United Kingdom UK 508725800 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam de de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 Europa muss seine Definition von externen Sicherheitsbedrohungen erweitern und sie auf einheitliche Art und Weise behandeln. Ein EU-Projekt hat dazu beigetragen, Europas Vorbereitung auf traditionelle und nicht-traditionelle Bedrohungen zu verbessern.

Laut Sicherheitsforschern sind die europäischen Sicherheitspolitiken nicht die einer echten Föderation, sondern eher einzelne nationale Konzepte, die auf althergebrachte Bedrohungen ausgerichtet sind. Ein neues Modell der europäischen Sicherheitsbereitschaft schlägt einen einheitlichen Ansatz vor, der auch nicht-traditionelle Bedrohungen berücksichtigt. Daher wurde das Projekt "Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles' (FOCUS) ins Leben gerufen. Das Projekt mit 13 Mitgliedern lief über zwei Jahre und erhielt EU-Finanzierung in Höhe von 3,4 Millionen Euro. FOCUS war darauf ausgerichtet, Bedrohungsszenarien außerhalb Europas zu definieren, welche die Sicherheit innerhalb Europas betreffen. Außerdem sollten durch das Projekt Empfehlungen zum Umgang mit derartigen Sicherheitsszenarien erarbeitet werden. Die FOCUS-Mitglieder bedachten ihre Rolle für Europa als Ganzes und behandelten alle vorhersehbaren Bedrohungen einschließlich des Klimawandels und nicht-traditioneller Bedrohungen. Die Projektmitglieder setzten sich sechs Hauptziele. Drei davon waren: neue Bereiche für Sicherheitsforschung ermitteln, das Konzept für Transversalität ausarbeiten und Ansätze für spezifische Szenarien entwerfen und anwenden. Die anderen drei sollten: durch Informationstechnologie (IT) eine Informationsinfrastruktur schaffen, Transparenz und Verständnis verbessern und zum Planen einer größer angelegten europäischen Sicherheitsforschung beitragen. Die FOCUS-Mitglieder halfen dabei, eine Richtung für die zukünftige Sicherheitsforschung der EU zu finden, wodurch die EU dabei unterstützt werden sollte, auf zukünftige sicherheitsbezogene Herausforderungen reagieren zu können. Die Projektmitglieder konzentrierten sich auf hypothetische Szenarien, die von außen auf Europa wirken, und erarbeiteten Vorschläge, wie Europa in diesen Fällen reagieren könnte. Diese IT-gestützten Voraussichten beruhten auf Bedrohungsintegration und einem vereinheitlichten europäischen Ansatz. Die FOCUS-Mitglieder definierten zukünftige Forschungsprogramme, in denen die bisher erarbeiteten Erkenntnisse ausgeweitet werden sollen. Der wichtigste Beitrag des Projekts bestand in der Entwicklung effektiver Tools zur Vorhersage und Bewertung potenzieller Bedrohungen bis 2035. Diese wurden von den Projektanalysen unterstützt. Diese IT-basierte Wissensplattform enthält Szenarien und Referenzwikis sowie eine Sammlung von Lehrplänen zur Schulung zukünftiger Sicherheitsforscher. Durch das FOCUS-Projekt konnte zur Planung der Sicherheitsforschung beigetragen werden, um den zukünftigen Anforderungen der EU zu entsprechen. Die FOCUS-Ergebnisse sind dazu vorgesehen, zu einem EU-spezifischen Rechts- und Compliance-Rahmen zu führen. Somit sollte die EU in der Zukunft besser auf nicht-traditionelle externe Sicherheitsbedrohungen vorbereitet sein.>

2014-08-06 15:48:28 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu de en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Österreich AT 175540776 es de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 Europa tiene la necesidad de ampliar su definición de las amenazas exteriores a la seguridad y también de abordarlas de un modo unificado. Un proyecto de la Unión Europea ha contribuido a elevar el nivel de preparación de Europa frente a las amenazas tanto tradicionales...

Según investigadores dedicados al tema de la seguridad, las políticas europeas al respecto no se corresponden con las que cabría esperar de una verdadera federación, sino que constituyen más bien distintos conjuntos de políticas nacionales enfocadas hacia amenazas anticuadas. Se ha conformado un nuevo modelo de preparación europea para mantener la seguridad que propone un planteamiento unificado y que tiene en cuenta también diversas amenazas no tradicionales.Esto es lo que se había propuesto el proyecto «Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles» (FOCUS). Este proyecto de dos años de duración corrió a cargo de un consorcio compuesto por trece entidades y recibió de la Unión Europea fondos por valor de 3,4 millones de euros. FOCUS pretendía definir distintas amenazas de origen exterior a Europa pero que incidían en la seguridad interior. En segundo lugar, debía aportar recomendaciones para bregar con tales situaciones nocivas para la seguridad. El equipo del proyecto tuvo en cuenta Europa en su totalidad y abordó todas las amenazas previsibles, incluidas las no tradicionales y las derivadas del cambio climático.Sus integrantes fijaron seis objetivos fundamentales. Los tres primeros consistían en definir nuevas áreas de investigación relevantes para la seguridad, profundizar en el concepto de la transversalidad y diseñar y aplicar métodos para situaciones específicas. Los tres restantes trataban de proporcionar una infraestructura informática de información, promover la transparencia y la comprensión y contribuir a la planificación de una investigación europea más amplia dedicada a la seguridad.FOCUS sirvió de ayuda para orientar las futuras investigaciones de la UE en materia de seguridad, la cual debería ayudar a la Unión a responder ante futuros retos para la seguridad. El proyecto se centró en casos hipotéticos que afectarían a Europa desde el exterior, ofreciéndose sugerencias sobre posibles modos de proceder por parte del continente. Estas previsiones, basadas en recursos informáticos, se fundamentaron en una integración de las amenazas y en un método europeo unificado.El equipo del proyecto definió también un programa de investigación para el futuro, siendo una prioridad del mismo ampliar los resultados logrados hasta la fecha. Según el propio proyecto, su principal contribución consistió en el desarrollo de herramientas efectivas para la previsión y la evaluación de amenazas posibles en el horizonte de 2035. Todo ello se sustentó en los análisis realizados en el seno del proyecto. Esta plataforma informática del conocimiento incluye wikis de referencia y sobre situaciones hipotéticas así como una matriz curricular para la formación de los futuros investigadores en el campo de la seguridad.El proyecto FOCUS ha realizado aportaciones con las que planificar una investigación sobre la seguridad que permita atender las necesidades futuras de la UE. Sus resultados están llamados a propiciar un marco legal y de cumplimiento normativo específico para la UE. De este modo, se espera que la UE incremente su preparación frente a amenazas externas y no tradicionales a la seguridad.>

2014-08-06 15:48:36 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu es en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Austria AT 175540776 it de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 L'Europa deve ampliare la propria definizione di minacce esterne alla sicurezza e affrontarle in modo uniforme. Un progetto dell'UE ha contribuito a migliorare la preparazione dell'Europa alle minacce tradizionali e non tradizionali.

Secondo i ricercatori nel campo della sicurezza, le politiche di sicurezza europee non sembrano appartenere a una vera federazione, ma sono piuttosto politiche separate che affrontano le vecchie minacce. Un nuovo modello di preparazione europea propone un approccio unificato, che tiene in considerazione anche le minacce non tradizionali. Proprio questo è stato lo scopo del progetto FOCUS ("Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles"). Al progetto biennale hanno collaborano 13 membri, ricevendo un finanziamento dall'UE pari a 3,4 milioni di euro. L'obiettivo di FOCUS era quello di definire gli scenari di potenziale minaccia esterna all'Europa che hanno effetto sulla sicurezza interna del continente. In secondo luogo, il fine del progetto era di fornire raccomandazioni su come affrontare tali scenari di sicurezza. FOCUS ha considerato il suo ruolo prendendo in esame l'intera Europa, pensando alle minacce prevedibili, tra cui il cambiamento climatico e le minacce non tradizionali. I membri del progetto hanno stabilito sei obiettivi principali. Tre di questi erano: l'identificazione di nuove aree di ricerca per la sicurezza, l'elaborazione del concetto di trasversalità e la progettazione e l'applicazione di approcci per scenari specifici. Gli altri tre erano: la produzione di una struttura di informazione digitale, il miglioramento della trasparenza e della comprensione e il contributo alla progettazione di una ricerca più ampia sulla sicurezza in Europa. FOCUS ha contribuito a stabilire linee guida per la ricerca futura sulla sicurezza in UE, con l'obiettivo di aiutare l'Europa a rispondere alle sfide future nel campo della sicurezza. Il progetto si è concentrato su scenari ipotetici che potessero minacciare l'Europa dall'esterno, e ha offerto soluzioni sulla possibile risposta a tali minacce. Queste previsioni supportate da sistemi informatici affondano le radici nell'integrazione delle minacce e in un approccio europeo unificato. FOCUS ha inoltre definito un programma di ricerca futura che avrà il compito di estendere i risultati ottenuti al momento. Il contributo principale del progetto è stato lo sviluppo di strumenti efficaci per la previsione e la valutazione di potenziali minacce fino al 2035. Queste previsioni sono state supportate dalle analisi eseguite nel corso del progetto. Questa piattaforma di informazioni basata sulle tecnologie informatiche include scenari e documentazione di riferimento nonché un modello di programma per l'istruzione di futuri ricercatori nel campo della sicurezza. Il progetto FOCUS ha offerto un punto di partenza per la pianificazione della ricerca sulla sicurezza al fine di rispondere alle esigenze future del'UE. Si prevede che i risultati di FOCUS porteranno alla realizzazione di un quadro legale e di conformità specifico per l'UE. In questo modo, l'Unione Europea sarà più preparata alle minacce esterne non tradizionali alla sicurezza che si presenteranno in futuro.>

2014-08-06 15:48:23 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu it en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Austria AT 175540776 pl de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 Europa musi poszerzyć definicję zagrożeń dla bezpieczeństwa zewnętrznego i reagować na nie w sposób jednolity. Unijny projekt pomaga Europie lepiej przygotować się na zagrożenia tradycyjne i nietradycyjne.

Zdaniem badaczy zajmujących się obronnością, europejskie polityki bezpieczeństwa nie mają charakteru federacyjnego, ale są przestarzałymi, rozdrobnionymi politykami krajowymi, dotyczącymi starych zagrożeń. W nowym modelu europejskiej gotowości do obrony zaproponowano podejście ujednolicone, zajmujące się także zagrożeniami nietradycyjnymi. Plan ten opracowano w ramach projektu "Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles" (FOCUS) . Projekt był realizowany przez 13 partnerów przez okres dwóch lat i otrzymał dofinansowanie ze środków UE w wysokości 3,4 mln euro. Celem projektu FOCUS było zdefiniowanie scenariuszy zagrożeń zewnętrznych dla Europy, które wpływają na europejskie bezpieczeństwo wewnętrzne. Po drugie, opracowano zalecenia dotyczące sposobów reagowania w takich scenariuszach. Uczestnicy inicjatywy FOCUS badali bezpieczeństwo w kontekście całej Europy, zajmując się wszystkimi przewidywalnymi zagrożeniami, w tym zmianą klimatu i zagrożeniami nietradycyjnymi. Wyznaczono sześć głównych celów projektu. Dotyczyły one między innymi identyfikacji nowych obszarów badań nad bezpieczeństwem, opracowania koncepcji transwersalności oraz opracowania i zastosowania konkretnych podejść do poszczególnych scenariuszy. Ponadto zajmowano się też opracowywaniem infrastruktury informatycznej, poprawą przejrzystości i porozumienia oraz rozwijaniem planów szerszych badań w dziedzinie europejskiego bezpieczeństwa. Projektu FOCUS pomógł ukierunkować przyszłe unijne badania z zakresie bezpieczeństwa, dzięki którym Unia będzie mogła lepiej reagować na zagrożenia. Prace koncentrowały się na hipotetycznych scenariuszach zagrożeń zewnętrznych oraz proponowanych sposobach reakcji Europy. Te opracowane przy pomocy narzędzi informatycznych prognozy zostały wykorzystane w ramach ujednoliconego europejskiego podejścia. Zdefiniowano także przyszły program badawczy, którego zdaniem będzie rozwinięcie dotychczasowych wyników prac. Najważniejszym osiągnięciem projektu jest opracowanie skutecznych narzędzi do przewidywania i oceny potencjalnych zagrożeń do roku 2035. Wykorzystano w nich analizy przeprowadzone w ramach projektu. Ta oparta na technologiach informatycznych platforma wiedzy obejmuje scenariusze i pomoc wiki oraz program szkoleń dla przyszłych badaczy zajmujących się bezpieczeństwem. Projekt FOCUS dostarczył danych umożliwiających planowanie badań z zakresu bezpieczeństwa spełniających przyszłe potrzeby UE. Inicjatywa FOCUS powinna doprowadzić do powstania specjalnych unijnych ram prawnych dotyczących bezpieczeństwa. Dzięki nim UE będzie lepiej przygotowana na nietradycyjne zagrożenia zewnętrzne.>

2014-08-06 15:47:10 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu pl en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Austria AT 175540776 fr de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 L'Europe doit élargir sa définition des menaces de sécurité externes et les aborder de manière unifiée. Un projet de l'UE a permis d'améliorer la préparation de l'Europe aux menaces traditionnelles et non-traditionnelles.

Selon les chercheurs dans le domaine de la sécurité, les politiques de sécurité européennes ne sont pas celles d'une véritable fédération mais plutôt des politiques nationales gérant d'anciennes menaces. Un nouveau modèle de préparation de sécurité européen propose une approche unifiée, envisageant également les menaces non traditionnelles. Tel était l'objectif du projet (FOCUS) («Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles»). Le projet de 13 membres a été actif deux ans et a bénéficié de 3,4 millions d'euros de financement. FOCUS visait à définir des scénarios de menaces externes à l'Europe touchant la sécurité interne de l'Europe. Ensuite, le projet visait à offrir des recommandations pour gérer de tels scénarios de sécurité. FOCUS a envisagé son rôle en tenant compte de toute l'Europe, en traitant toutes les menaces prévisibles, y compris le changement climatique et les menaces non traditionnelles. Les membres du projet ont défini six objectifs principaux. Trois d'entre eux étaient: Identifier de nouveaux domaines de recherche en matière de sécurité, élaborer le concept de la transversalité et concevoir et appliquer des approches de scénario spécifiques. Les trois autres visaient à: Produire une infrastructure de l'information pour la technologie de l'information (IT), améliorer la transparence et la compréhension et contribuer au planning de recherches plus étendue en matière de sécurité européenne.FOCUS a aidé à donner un cap à la recherche de l'UE en matière de sécurité, afin d'aider l'UE à répondre aux défis futurs en matière de sécurité. Le projet s'est concentré sur des scénarios hypothétiques affectant l'Europe de l'extérieur, en proposant des suggestions sur la manière dont l'Europe pourrait répondre. Ces prévisions basées sur la technologie de l'information trouvent leurs racines dans l'intégration de la menace et dans une approche européenne unifiée.FOCUS a également défini un futur programme de recherche qui aura pour tâche d'étendre les résultats obtenus à ce jour. La principale contribution du projet était le développement d'outils efficaces pour la prévision et l'évaluation des menaces potentielles jusqu'en 2035. Celles-ci étaient prises en charge par les analyses du projet. Cette plateforme de connaissances basée sur la technologie de l'information inclut des scénarios et des références et une matrice pour former les futurs chercheurs dans le domaine de la sécurité.Le projet FOCUS a fourni des informations pour que la planification de la recherche en matière de sécurité réponde aux besoins futurs de l'UE. Les résultats du projet FOCUS doivent mener à un cadre juridique et de conformité spécifique à l'UE. Dès lors, l'UE doit être davantage préparée aux menaces de sécurité externes non-traditionnelles à l'avenir.>

2014-08-06 15:40:51 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu fr en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Autriche AT 175540776 en de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 Europe needs to broaden its definition of external security threats, and address them in a unified way. An EU project has helped to improve Europe's preparedness for traditional and non-traditional threats.

According to security researchers, European security policies are not those of a true federation, but rather separate national policies addressing old threats. A new model of European security preparedness proposes a unified approach, also considering non-traditional threats. Such was the purpose of the 'Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles' (FOCUS) project. The 13-member project ran for two years, and received EUR 3.4 million in EU funding. FOCUS aimed to define threat scenarios external to Europe that affect European internal security. Secondly, the project aimed to provide recommendations for dealing with such security scenarios. FOCUS considered its role considering the whole of Europe, addressing all foreseeable threats, including climate change and non-traditional threats. Project members set six main objectives. Three of these were to: identify new areas of security research, elaborate on the concept of transversality, and design and apply specific scenario approaches. The other three aimed to: produce an information technology (IT) information infrastructure, enhance transparency and understanding, and contribute to the planning of broader European security research. FOCUS helped provide direction for future EU security research, aimed at helping the EU respond to future security challenges. The project concentrated on hypothetical scenarios affecting Europe from outside, offering suggestions about how Europe might respond. These IT-supported foresights were rooted in threat integration and a unified European approach.FOCUS also defined a future research programme that will be tasked with extending the results achieved to date. The project's main stated contribution was the development of effective tools for the prediction and assessment of potential threats till 2035. These were supported by the project's analyses. This IT-based knowledge platform includes scenario and reference wikis and a curriculum matrix for educating future security researchers. The FOCUS project has provided input for planning of security research to meet future EU needs. FOCUS outcomes are slated to lead to an EU-specific legal and compliance framework. As such, the EU should be more prepared for non-traditional external security threats in the future.>

2014-08-06 15:48:41 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC en 140497 Executive Summary:FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) helped shape European security research to enable the EU to effectively respond to tomorrow’s challenges stemming from the globalisation of... 2014-08-01 09:36:46 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam http://www.focusproject.eu en en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg Austria AT 175540776 en en 140497 261633-345-2 Executive Summary:FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) helped shape European security research to enable the EU to effectively respond to tomorrow’s challenges stemming from the globalisation of...

Executive Summary: FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) helped shape European security research to enable the EU to effectively respond to tomorrow’s challenges stemming from the globalisation of risks, threats, and vulnerabilities. FOCUS concentrated on alternative future EU roles to prevent or respond to incidents situated on the “borderline” between the internal and external dimensions of the security affecting the Union and its citizens. It did so by elaborating multiple scenarios, based on IT-supported foresight, in the form of alternative futures. These were rooted in threat integration and a comprehensive approach to future missions to provide security to the Union and its citizens. FOCUS identified and assessed alternative sets of future tracks for security research in FP7 and subsequent programmes that will support the EU to adopt new roles in dealing with external threats, risks, and vulnerabilities. The main contribution of the FOCUS project was the development of an effective long-term prediction and assessment tool at EU level, populated with analyses done in the project. The time frame of scenario foresight in the FOCUS project was 2035. FOCUS provided studies, security scenarios, roadmaps, and an IT-based Knowledge Platform for scenario foresight, with the latter offering a large number of practical tools such as scenario wikis, reference wikis, and a curriculum matrix for educating future security researchers. New stakeholders of security research will comprise security forces other than military, for example public entities such as national and possible emerging EU customs and border protection, other national and international security agencies, as well as private entities. Stakeholders will moreover come from the banking, finance, economic, and health sectors. Other international organisations and NGOs will be stakeholders in European cross-disciplinary security research. With the concept of societal security increasing in importance, national and international non-profit civilian organisations will develop increasing stakes in security research. Security research will contribute to improving an EU-specific legal compliance framework to collectively support and protect the security and safety of EU citizens against external impacts. Progressive standards and codes of conduct will be critical for enabling the EU to implement responsible technology governance. At the same time, multidisciplinary mapping of fundamental rights enforcement and the acceptability of security technologies and interventions will become paramount across the EU Member States. Becoming both a more policy-informing and societally embedded enterprise, future security research will always face the problem of having to meet larger expectations with fewer resources. Discussions of effects-based approaches to comprehensive security, as applied to home affairs, will result in a more politically than strategically defined level of ambition on the side of the EU and its Member States, with capabilities developed that sometimes have limited effects on the real security challenges at hand. Investments in the field of big data information management and information integration will be needed to ensure sustainable cooperation between all actors involved. Moreover, additional investments in interoperability and coordination related to information and communication technology, – between and within international organisations – will be required. Investments will also be required in the sector of non-military instruments for EU power projection, such as financial instruments, as well as on industrial strategies and identification of vulnerabilities and gaps of resilience. Project Context and Objectives: FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) aimed wide but with concrete policy guidance in mind: namely to define the most plausible threat scenarios that affect the “borderline” between the EU’s external and internal dimensions to security – and to derive guidance for the Union’s future possible security roles and decisions to plan research in support of those roles. During the times of manifest Cold War threat scenarios, Arnold Wolfers, professor and expert in international relations, complained that “national security” was a symbol that left too much room for confusion to serve as a guiding principle for political advice or scientific analysis (A. Wolfers: “‘National Security’ as an Ambiguous Symbol,” Political Science Quarterly 67:4 [December 1952]: 481-502, quote on p. 483). He suggested that, as a first step in developing an analytical concept of the term, security should be considered, “in an objective sense, […] the absence of threats to acquired values, [and] in a subjective sense, the absence of fear that such values will be attacked.” (ibid., p. 485) After the end of the Cold War, security policy continued to be understood as a normative practice, namely as defending values (B. Buzan: People, States, and Fear. Boulder, CO: Rienner, 1991). The notion of security as a value-laden concept and its essential link to society has been taken up by the new field of security research, which includes a focus on “societal security” in addition to – or beyond – the security of infrastructures, utilities, etc. Security research aims for a comprehensive approach to delivering security (including civil protection) to the citizens – by civil means and without infringing individual rights and freedoms (cf. European Societal security research Group, http://www.societalsecurity.eu). The main focus of security research, however, has been on technological solutions for security problems and their thorough check for social and ethics issues, such as the acceptability and impact on citizens’ perception of (in)security. This must be an integrated part of the research process. Reaching beyond this state of the art, what has been termed “new security studies” (cf. J.P. Burgess,ed.: The Routledge Handbook of New Security Studies. Milton Park: Routledge, 2013) aims to integrate concepts and approaches from classical, strategic security studies, and security research. Embracing academic perspectives within the spectrum of “new security studies” and those from industry and end-users, FOCUS aimed to contribute toward shaping research to enable the EU to effectively address future challenges to comprehensive security. The main idea of FOCUS was to develop multiple scenarios that function as common denominators for challenges (involving new tasks) whose causes are external to the territory of the Union, but whose consequences will be experienced on the territory of the Union and EU responses using tangible contributions from security research. By extrapolating the Member States’ prerogative over security on the national scale, the Lisbon Treaty (2009) introduced the concept of the security of the European Union (EU) itself: Based on its new legal personality, the Union now aims “to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples” (Article 3 Treaty on European Union). For the security of the Union and its citizens, it is the Union that “shall define and pursue common policies and actions, and shall work for a high degree of cooperation” (Article 21). The Lisbon Treaty also effected a significant transition towards harmonisation in the field of civil protection against natural or anthropogenic (or “man-made”) disasters: The Union now has the competence to support, coordinate, and/or complement the actions of the Member States (Article 196 Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union). In total, the Treaty on European Union in the Lisbon version establishes the Union as a whole as a security provider to its citizens, reaffirming its role as a global actor, based on collective European values and security interests: “In its relations with the wider world, the Union shall uphold and promote its values and interests and contribute to the protection of its citizens” (Article 3 Treaty on European Union). Still mirroring the pre-Lisbon Treaty state of play, however, the current state of security research in Europe is characterized by national focuses on a limited number of pre-defined missions or parallel scenarios that typically result from an analysis of specific national incidents, requirements, or shortcomings. By contrast, FOCUS elaborated foresight-generated multiple scenarios for EU security roles and related security research topics, approaches and structures to introduce scenario planning from a European perspective, and to broaden the concept of security research. The work of FOCUS seeks to assist the EU, its Member States, industry, and other stakeholders to design a common approach to the contribution of security research to effectively cope with challenges arising from the globalisation of risks, threats, and vulnerabilities before they deplete the EU’s ethical and societal legitimacy as a comprehensive security provider for its citizens. FOCUS was co-funded under the security research theme of the EU’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), for the period of April 2011 to March 2013. The project brought together 13 partners from eight countries, including universities, industry, think tanks, and security information providers. FOCUS successfully replied to the following topic: Topic SEC-2010.6.3-2 Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles New tasks are expected to strengthen the EU’s role towards providing a comprehensive security approach to its citizens. The external dimension of security may become every more important. The security impact of global climate change needs to be addressed. Furthermore, a stronger common approach to civil protection and crisis management is needed. The task is to develop scenarios as how security research under FP7 and beyond can best contribute to this comprehensive approach while giving due consideration to the ethical and societal dimension. Expected impact: Provide input for the planning of security research to meet future EU roles beyond those defined in the ESRAB report. FOCUS was a scenario foresight project. Foresight is a participatory approach to strategic forward thinking to increase the requisite variety to cope with alternative futures in a world to come. The FOCUS project had a 2035 time frame. Foresight neither predicts the future, nor circumscribes normative desirable futures or “wishful thinking.” Foresight is about describing different possible futures. It is calibrated to diversity, not to delimitation. Results and insights of foresight can be presented in different ways. One common way is to present foresight results in the form of scenarios. A scenario is “a ‘story’ illustrating visions of a possible future or aspects of a possible future. It is perhaps the most emblematic foresight or future studies method. Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather similar to simulations of some possible futures. They are used both as an exploratory method and as a tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the present and to reveal the choices available and their potential consequences.” (European Commission Joint Research Centre: “Scenario Building. Definition” (2006), http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/2_scoping/meth_scenario.htm#Definition [last access: 12-03-2013]. As foresight itself, thus, the scenarios that it yields include thinking in extremes, low probability/high impact aspects, etc. The scenarios are not master plans, policy recommendations, or suggested normative trends. The FOCUS foresight approach departed from institutional Europe as defined through the Lisbon Treaty. Within a 2035 time horizon, a scenario-approach was chosen that allows the identification of threats and incidents that may affect Europe, required responses, and eventually European futures. FOCUS concentrated on alternative future EU roles to prevent or respond to incidents situated on the “borderline” between the internal and external dimensions of the security affecting the Union and its citizens. It did so by elaborating multiple scenarios, based on IT-supported foresight, in the form of alternative futures. These were plausibility-probed versus mere threat scenarios. The main contribution of the project is the development of effective long-term prediction and assessment tools at the EU level. Overall, FOCUS followed six objectives, each building upon each other, namely to: • Identify alternative sets of future tracks for security research in FP7 and subsequent programmes, supporting EU roles to deal with exogenous threats, risks, and vulnerabilities. • Elaborate on the concept of transversality in assessing evolving needs for research across traditional disciplines, presently defined mission areas and throughout the security continuum. • Design and apply a specific scenario approach (“embedded scenarios”). This was based on foresight to ensure openness, participation, and inclusiveness (e.g. involvement of societal stake-holders), while explicitly addressing security perceptions and security in relation to other values. • Produce an IT information infrastructure (by adapting existing information technologies) that will make material and tools for scenario planning of security research available to knowledge communities. • Enhance transparency, improve understanding, and increase preparedness for the emerging challenges of the “external dimension” and the “external–internal continuum” of security and the evolution of security research. • Contribute to the planning of security research beyond the European security research Advisory Board (ESRAB) and European security research and Innovation Forum (ESRIF), based on foreseen EU roles rather than on pre-defined missions. Approaches and results from the FOCUS project revolve around the planning of security research in the 2035 time frame to support foresighted EU security roles. In a follow-up, they could be carried further to help provide a framework for analyzing long-term trends and dynamic interactions in a global environment undergoing tectonic changes, reaching beyond the FOCUS mission to explore new contexts of security research in support of possible future EU role scenarios. European developments are in large part driven by challenging global developments, reaching beyond external risks and threats to which the EU needs to respond (see European Commission: Global Europe 2050. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2012). Project Results: 1. FOCUS method 1.2 Five “Big Themes” FOCUS conducted foresight on an inclusive basis, making maximum use of its IT support for integration of multiple stakeholders, experts from a broad range of fields, and the interested public to address security in relation to other societal as well as ethical values. This approach was especially important in the context of scenario planning in order to ensure that the selected policies and security technologies were responsive to the needs of citizens and that they created security approaches rooted in acceptance. Scenario foresight in the FOCUS project was carried out via critical and creative – yet methodologically guided – forward thinking at the strategic level, aiming to increase the EU’s ability to cope with relevant alternative futures from the near future until 2035. This task was performed along the following five “Big Themes” as derived from environmental scanning and research done in preparation of the project: • Comprehensive approach: Alternative future tracks in further developing the comprehensive approach as followed by institutions and states, including links between the internal and external dimension of security. • Natural disasters and global environmental change: Scenarios for future EU roles in preparing for and responding to natural disasters and environment-related hazards, focused on comprehensive crisis management. • Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection: Scenarios for future EU roles centred on preventing, mitigating, and responding to exogenous threats that could have a significant impact on EU citizens. • EU as a global actor: Alternative futures of the EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks, building on EU and Member States instruments and capability processes. • EU internal framework (and EU homeland security): Scenarios for the evolution of the EU’s internal framework and prerequisites for delivering a comprehensive approach, including Lisbon Treaty provisions and relevant strategies (e.g. for engagement with other international actors) as well as ethical acceptability and public acceptance. 1.2 “Embedded scenario” method The FOCUS approach presented the results of the performed foresight on three scenario levels: • First, scenarios for “EU security roles” in the up to 2035 time frame; • Second, within those context scenarios for EU roles, scenarios for alternative futures of “security research 2035” that contribute toward an enabling of those roles; • Third, validated reference scenarios that lead to the FOCUS roadmap proposal for “security research 2035.” FOCUS results were obtained by expert workshops, online questionnaires, analyses of related foresight projects, and large horizon scanning. This was based on a methodology process, which was also part of the project’s work. In total, more than 600 experts contributed to the results by scenario information crowd-sourcing and assessments, representing more than 20 countries. Experts were identified in horizon scanning, in scanning of related projects, and by using partners’ lists of experts. Further experts were added based on project-related communication and turnout for project events. Participating experts represented EU bodies; NATO bodies and institutions; national regional and federal bodies; international bodies; industry; first responder and emergency management organisations and agencies; think tanks; universities; NGOs; and other sectors. To integrate its foresight results, FOCUS designed and applied an “embedded scenario” method. This delineates options for future tracks and broadened concepts of security research within broader scenarios that involve EU roles for responding to transversal challenges (whose causes are external but whose effects are internal to the EU). 1.3 Reference scenario method At the end of the scenario work, a reference scenario for each of the five “Big Themes” was derived. Those five reference scenarios for the planning of future security research in the overall 2035 time frame of the FOCUS project comprise the following: • Alternative future concepts of the comprehensive approach and resulting role requirements for the EU – Reference scenario: “No Land is an Island” – A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities; • Natural disasters and global environmental change – Reference scenario: “Policy Drives All in a Have/Have-Not World” – security research on natural disasters and the global environment; • Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection – Reference scenario: “Security as Societal Science” – Critical infrastructure and supply chain research driven by societal factors; • The EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks – Reference scenario: “Borderless Threats = Mission Creep” – The EU’s forced march toward a stronger Common Security and Defence Policy; • The EU’s internal framework (and the emerging system of EU Homeland Security) – Reference scenario: “Inside Out” – Inward coherence and governance opens the door to external policy. The five reference scenarios depict alternative futures for security research in 2035 that support the EU’s projected exogenous security roles (i.e., its responsibilities that derive from threats and challenges beyond the EU but which must be dealt with internally since they would directly impact the security of its citizens), described in the thematic scenarios for “EU 2035” security roles. The basis for deriving the reference scenarios were the 24 thematic scenarios for “security research 2035” previously developed by FOCUS, plus a comprehensive online questionnaire for the assessment of those scenarios by external experts, stakeholders, and interested parties, as well as cross-referencing and plausibility-probing analytical work and further supporting analyses. While any number of methodologies could have been applied to the five sub-sets of syllabus scenarios, the most logical approaches choices boiled down to two: either (a) choosing one from each of the sub-sets to represent the entire set or (b) fusing the most appropriate descriptor elements from each to produce a representative composite scenario. FOCUS rejected the former approach for its risk of skewing a scenario toward one extreme or the other (given the diversity of sub-scenarios within each “Big Theme”) or excluding relevant descriptors. Instead, FOCUS opted for the composite approach. The task then became one of devising a methodology to produce composite reference scenarios for each of the “Big Theme” scenario sub-sets. The approach centred on the creation of a standard “scenario generator,” whereby the basic descriptive elements were extracted from each scenario within a given sub-set. The elements were then mapped against multiple relevant EU policies, working documents such as the final report of the European security research and Innovation Form (ESRIF), and/or known political stances of the EU and its 27 Member States. Then they were “filtered” or analyzed to determine whether the descriptive element remained valid for the 2035 time frame as projected through the assumptions that underpin those EU policy/stances. Thus, each reference scenario generator allowed for a broad analysis of all key elements in all of the scenarios to be established per “Big Theme” against the EU’s wider policy environment. The filtering and selection task was enriched by parallel input from other FOCUS partners regarding their work on driver identification, expert questionnaires on selected “Big Theme” research, and other analysis. In total, reference scenario analysis included the following: • Pre-validation (initial cross-reference) of sub-scenarios against each other and against general EU policy environment; • Comprehensive assessment of the 24 thematic scenarios (EU roles as well as supporting security research) syllabus based on an online questionnaire; • Identification of key drivers from the total set of FOCUS scenario drivers; • Calibration of the draft scenarios with a compilation of future security research requirements resulting from alternative futures of the comprehensive approach. Moreover, the reference scenarios were subjected to further analyses in order to support the FOCUS roadmap process. These analyses comprised the following: o Transversal analysis across the five reference scenarios concerning: external threats and their impact on EU security of citizens; the translation mechanisms these represent between external threats and their impact; and the identification of the impact of exogenous challenges on Member States as well as the limits to coherent EU roles – with the ultimate goal of identifying gaps in security research norms, standards, and procedures. o Assessment of differential impact of the “security research 2035” reference scenarios at national level. o Identification of requirements for future security research from other projects and comparison against the reference scenarios. All FOCUS scenarios and related proof of concept information are available as wikis for further use on the IT-based Knowledge Platform that was developed in the project: http://www.focusproject.eu/web/focus/wiki/-/wiki/Main/FrontPage. 2. Main steps and related results/usable output The “Overview table of FOCUS steps and results/output” included in the attachments to this report provides an overview of FOCUS analytical, foresight, and integration steps, with main associated results and output. The table includes hyperlinks to publicly available project results documents and content. The subsequent chapters describe results obtained from the major steps in the project. 2.1 Problem space descriptions and related future security research tracks 2.1.1 Introduction and transversal scenario drivers FOCUS scenario foresight in its 2035 time frame was based on problem space descriptions per “Big Theme” that the project produced in the form of studies, taking into account the results of foresight and scenario work conducted in other European and international projects. In this context, the following seven transversal scenario drivers for the evolution of the European civil security challenges policies (across FOCUS’ five “Big Themes”) were derived. Based on the problem space descriptions and drivers, FOCUS then performed in-depth foresight processes. In the course of this, FOCUS at first identified future security research tracks. These were then reflected – along with broader foresight results from project work – in the development of the thematic scenarios for “security research 2035,” as well as of the reference scenarios. • Globalisation and international system change Further effects of globalisation may lead to an international shift in relative wealth, revival of geopolitics, enhancement of global disorder, and a new form of multipolarity. This could produce a global redistribution of power, causing the EU to face increased friction when acting globally to provide security for its citizens. Increased friction means a transition from cooperation towards confrontation when making and enforcing decisions on the international level. Redistribution of power will also increase asymmetry (the relative difference between the capacities of states to influence international security affairs). • Changing modes of governance Governance – the evolving informal system, short of hard sanctions and enforcement, for conforming to international legal and social norms – may adopt new and different characteristics following diversification and different forms of power, new sources of power, and different ways of using power on the global scene. This includes geopolitics as control over territorial space, not only borders. Public-private cooperation in security theatres will also be an important factor. • Changing values and norms Partly related to evolving modes of governance, values, and norms also are relevant drivers of the internal political and social cohesion of the European Union. These will determine the sense of collectiveness and readiness of taking responsibility, and sharing the burdens of a global role. They will also strongly influence the EU’s dedication to the protection of human rights and the fostering of human security on a global scale. • Economic and social change Economic and social change will determine alternatives for protecting societies and infrastructures. Relative economic power and the EU’s prevailing perception of its own economic and social conditions will affect its will and ability to increase collective efforts and strengthen the concept of the EU’s security as a whole. Economic and financial crises will make it difficult to counter threats in a comprehensive way. European demographics will influence public attitudes, the political will, and the political agency of the EU to act as a security provider. • Technological change This driver is multifaceted. It includes new technology-based capabilities of the Union and its Member States, as well as new critical (inter-)dependencies – such as on information and communication technologies – and vulnerabilities. Vulnerabilities could, for example, emerge from cross-dependencies of critical infrastructure on information technology systems. Technological change will also have impact on energy dependency, increasing or decreasing it. • Extent of common threat assessment Future roles of the EU as a security provider will hinge upon the extent to which a common threat assessment can be reached on EU and national levels. This includes the evolution of current consensual threat drivers, which mainly are: CBNRe terrorism (chemical, biological, nuclear, radiological, and explosives); external political instability, poverty and resulting mass migration; cyber threats; and climate change, including its effect as a threat multiplier. • Consistency and coherence of future security research The thrust of the EU as a comprehensive security provider to its citizens will depend on the degree of consistency and coherence of security research at national and EU levels. Consistent security research accumulates knowledge across disciplines, sectors, and cases in order to timely identify most important gaps and needs for the further implementation of security strategies. Coherent security research is a cooperative intellectual effort at national and EU levels that contributes to the definition and implementation of a common European security agenda across different themes, funding lines, epistemic communities, and stakeholders. 2.1.2 Comprehensive approach Challenges in the coming decades will be fraught with uncertainty, involving state and non-state actors who combine conventional and asymmetric methods. They will encompass space and cyberspace, and influence the concept of comprehensive security as well as operational ingredients of the comprehensive approach. Shaping the opinion of a network-enabled audience will be just as important as targeting the threat. Problems related to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will persist. Cyber threats will also proliferate, with possibilities for organising high-consequence attacks against European critical infrastructures. Likewise, non-state and hybrid actors will continue to seek the ability to stage major terrorist attacks on the territories of EU Member States as well. A comprehensive approach aims at overarching solutions to problems, generating broad effects and based on the complementarity of actors, while considering all available options and capabilities, as well as the normative end-state of the security of society as a whole. A comprehensive approach entails the tackling of cross-cutting issues in home affairs, including civil protection. Reflecting the cross-border and cross-sector nature of current threats and challenges as well as the complexity of instruments and objectives along the internal–external continuum, a comprehensive approach focuses on the holistic nature and broad trade-offs involving societal goals in order to increase the security of the EU and its citizenry. Future tracks of security research should include the following: EU cohesion, decision-making and, more generally, governance; dependency on information and communication technology, and technology in general (address cascading breakdown of systems); new methodologies for collecting and integrating data from various different sources; decision-making tools based on joined-up situation analyses, including their use to secure public acceptance and support; advancement and integration of approaches to foresight, with special consideration of disruptors from normative (desired) end-states. Future tracks of security research should also lay emphasis on the implementation perspective, taking into account indicators for measuring the effectiveness of the comprehensive approach. 2.1.3 Natural disasters & global environmental change Addressing natural hazards, with serious consequences on a regional level, FOCUS centres on major external threats to greater areas (outside and within the European Union) that may shape future roles of the EU as a comprehensive security provider: They can cause humanitarian crises of scales requiring a wide spectrum of responses, as they affect infrastructures and human environment. Moreover, interactions of different hazards, multi-hazards, technological hazards, and the fact that human activity can initiate or influence processes and events, will play an increasing role. Future research therefore should act as a catalyst in the form of meta-projects integrating results from EU funded and other projects on natural hazards and their security aspects. However, this would require enhanced accessibility of previous studies and their results. Improved dissemination strategies will be required. Other topics could be anthropogenic (or “man-made”) natural disasters and multidisciplinary scenarios of maximum credible natural events. Those scenarios could contribute to identifying maximum possible damage from a combination of primary (destruction by shockwave), secondary (e.g. fires), and tertiary (e.g. supply chain damage, loss of production) effects for a given region, nation, or the EU as a whole. Moreover, future research should investigate drivers of change in individual behaviour in relation to climate change mitigation. 2.1.4 Critical infrastructure & supply chain protection Critical infrastructure protection, including the cyber dimension, refers to preparedness and response to serious incidents that involve the critical infrastructure of a region or nation. More specifically, critical infrastructure protection as defined by the EU is the ability to prepare for, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from critical infrastructure disruptions or destruction, as well as to protect human lives. Over the past decade, the EU has taken substantial steps to formulate integrated policies designed to enhance the protection of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI) and reduce its vulnerability to a variety of threats, including terrorism, criminal activities, and natural disasters. The most significant advancement has been the introduction of the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP). EPCIP embraces an all-hazards approach, covering natural disasters and intentional anthropogenic (or “man-made”) hazards. Effective protection will need binding international and global rules, since major infrastructures operate internationally or globally and threats can originate from any place in the world. Policy developments call for support by well-focused EU-level research, which should include three main themes. First, there is the need to conduct detailed assessment on interdependencies in the European Critical Infrastructure system. Special attention should be paid on linkages between European Critical Infrastructure and infrastructure located in third countries. Second, future research should compile a comprehensive catalogue of critical supplies for the European economy and investigate factors that could disrupt supply of these materials to the EU in detail. Third, more research is needed to analyze how the new mandate of the Lisbon Treaty together with enhanced capabilities of the EU could change the EU’s role in foreign politics, and more interestingly, how the EU could use its growing political power to secure its interests in third countries. As far as the cyber dimension is concerned, future research should moreover address cyber attacks on commercial and state actor targets – and if dissuasion is possible and what are effective responses to such attacks – but also hacking and other actions from cyberactivist groups. 2.1.5 The EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks In view of the expansion of the EU’s direct involvement in security affairs in recent years, this should lead to EU future endeavours that cut across the range of the Petersberg tasks. Any related concept of the EU as a global actor should be realistically based on the EU’s posture in order to provide the most relevant package of concepts and capabilities to every particular case. The 2008 implementation review of the European Security Strategy (2003) stressed that the Union disposed of an unmatched repertory of instruments and activities to foster human security and address underlying causes of insecurity and conflict. Based on this, the EU should contribute to renewing multilateralism at the global level. Instruments of EU global roles may include increased justice and law enforcement capabilities; increased EU intelligence and early warning capabilities; financial instruments for influencing economic developments on a global scale; good governance and institution building, including in security sectors; or civil society-related and cultural instruments, including media, social networks, etc. Future concepts of a global security role for the EU will require even more than present ones that the Unions’ security posture (strategic orientation plus capabilities) and its internal decision-making framework match. Future security research should address corresponding capability-related challenges, such as the following: capabilities that can impact from any distance (advanced drones, other advanced robotics systems, strategic cyber capabilities, space capabilities, etc.); capabilities that can disrupt external EU lifelines (energy, communication, etc.); changing economic and financial leverage that can have negative or positive impacts on security challenges to the EU; and challenges that result from differentials in the EU’s wider neighbourhood (population, age, employment, competence, etc.). 2.1.6 EU internal framework (and EU homeland security) The evolution of the EU’s internal structure will be driven both by external challenges and by internal pressures to forge collective policies in order to maintain institutional coherence and thus deliver effective, consistent responses to major external challenges. Some of the EU’s vulnerabilities result from the fact that European strategies do not always take into account the resources required for their implementation and do not fully consider organisational needs to effectuate awareness and increase resilience. Given the experience of several crises of different types in recent years, the EU internal framework is going to change further, with an emphasis on institutional qualities and European capabilities to provide comprehensive support to the European citizens in times of crisis. While EU Member States agreed to introduce the concept of the security of the Union as a whole into the Lisbon Treaty, both the political and the public sector considerably vary across countries in their perceptions and concepts of security. The concept of security in the EU so far has been the resultant of Union-level initiatives and national repertories of action. Member States continue to rest on different symbols of what they value and safeguard. There are different public and citizen security cultures, leading to nationally informed priorities. Divergences of such kind notwithstanding, the future concept of security as well as of security research can be expected to be informed by the European Security Model as outlined in the EU Internal Security Strategy. This includes addressing the causes of insecurity and not just its effects, with priorities on prevention across sectors (political, economic, social, etc.). New tracks of security research comprise the need for the EU to support Member States in times of crisis, including for example possible increased roles of dual-use capabilities in home affairs. Another aspect is to identify most important research gaps and needs for the further implementation of EU security strategies. The role of the internet, in particular of the new social media such as Facebook, is a further relevant aspect that follows the need for differentiated analyses of such as emergence of networks combining factions, future strategies, and technologies to interfere with riot communication, future police capabilities, and oversight mechanisms. 2.2 Key technology aspects of the problem spaces FOCUS foresight yielded insight in key technology aspects relating to the “EU 2035” as a comprehensive security provider to its citizens, as per the problem spaces laid out above. Key technology aspects were identified – per “Big Theme” – in the following two dimensions: • Expected key security technologies in future EU security roles; • Requirements for IT-based knowledge management in future EU security roles, based on exploration of use of the FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform and its potential for expansion beyond the immediate scope of the FOCUS project. 2.2.1 Expected key technologies in future EU security roles 2.2.1.1 Comprehensive approach • Chemical and biological sensors; X-ray technology • Imaging technologies • Data fusion and decision support software • Mobile broadband communication – developed possibilities to exchange information over long-distance in real time, with high quality and reliability • Technology platforms and convertible technologies • Multi-use platforms (civil, security, military, etc.) • IT key platform technology • Vulnerability and response capabilities simulation 2.2.1.2 Natural disasters and global environmental change • Smart power grids • Electromobility • Decentralised power generators • Uses of smartphones for individualised (or more individualised) emergency assistance • Service robots 2.2.1.3 Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection • Data protection technology • IT security technology (relates both to improved conventional anti-virus technology and to new anti-cyber attack technology) 2.2.1.4 The EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks • Unmanned aerial vehicles • Image processing equipment • IT intelligence: web search instruments 2.2.1.5 EU internal framework (and EU homeland security) • Technologies for collaborative e-government • Technologies for inter-agency cooperation • Cyber intelligence web technologies • Space technologies 2.2.2 Requirements for IT-based knowledge management in future EU security roles 2.2.2.1 Comprehensive approach • IT-based knowledge management platforms that allow for both strategic and mission scenario planning • Use of IT-based knowledge management platforms for information interoperability and integrated situational pictures • Providing meta-technology to integrate and comprehensively use data and information from different sources to allow for more informed and better decisions • New technologies for collecting and integrating data from various different sources • Syllabi of mechanisms of external threats on EU critical infrastructure, mainly related to information and communication technology (ICT) and cyber attacks • Collection of definition of future operational requirements and technology development • Platform technology for structured information exchange, e.g. inter-agency 2.2.2.2 Natural disasters and global environmental change • Use of IT-based knowledge management platforms as part of a holistic educational system that increase societal sustainability and resilience: understanding, interdisciplinary, and strengthening intrinsic values such as cooperation and solidarity • Advancing disaster forecast technologies and integrating information gained based on those technologies • Use of IT-based knowledge management platforms to foster and integrate output from technology assessments and creative thinking • Technology for structured exchange of information • Knowledge management and knowledge integration • Platform for crisis communication • Platform to support crisis management (e.g., knowledge-based decision support) • Platform for education and training of decision-makers and first responders 2.2.2.3 Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection • Crowdsourced technology foresight and assessment • Hosting of a dynamic model to describe interdependencies among critical infrastructures and supply chains • Critical Infrastructure Warning Information Network • Crowdsourcing of citizens’ perception of infringements of their fundamental rights by increased security of infrastructures and supply chains • Knowledge management and knowledge integration, including contribution to education of society on the vulnerabilities, on the consequences of failures, and on the way to behave in case of disaster • Platform for crisis communication • Platform to support crisis management (e.g., knowledge-based decision support), facilitating interoperability and collaboration between EU Member States 2.2.2.4 The EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks • Knowledge management and knowledge integration, in particular relating to comprehensive situational awareness; cooperative vulnerability assessment; and common operational picture process and integration of early-warning information • Crowdsourcing of technology opportunities/possibilities vs. citizens’ needs • Platform for crisis communication • Platform to support crisis management (e.g., knowledge-based decision support) • Platform for education and training of decision-makers and first responders 2.2.2.5 EU internal framework (and EU homeland security) • Knowledge management and information integration for situational awareness, in particular including information/results from use of new forecast technologies • Knowledge/knowledge-management related challenges of deepening interdependence • Structured exchange of information for inter-agency collaboration • Crowdsourcing of technology opportunities/possibilities vs. citizens’ needs • Platform for support of crisis management (e.g., knowledge-based decision support) • Platform for crisis communication • Platform for education and training of decision-makers and first responders 2.3 Reference scenarios 2.3.1 Development and overview of the reference scenarios Based on a broad plausibility probe and on online questionnaire work involving more than 100 experts, stakeholders and end-users from more than 20 countries from within and outside the EU, FOCUS developed the following reference scenarios. The FOCUS roadmap development towards “security research 2035” then built upon those reference scenarios. The five reference scenarios for the planning of future security research in the overall 2035 time frame of the FOCUS project comprise the following: • “No Land is an Island” – A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities; • “Policy Drives All in a Have/Have-Not World” – security research on natural disasters and the global environment; • “Security as Societal Science” – Critical infrastructure and supply chain research driven by societal factors; • “Borderless Threats = Mission Creep” – The EU’s forced march toward a stronger Common Security and Defence Policy; • “Inside Out” – Inward coherence and governance opens the door to external policy. As explained above, these reference scenarios depict alternative futures for “security research” in the 2035 time frame which support the EU’s projected exogenous security roles described at the level of thematic scenarios. The reference scenarios provide various insights into what future European security research may require. This includes respect for human and societal needs, citizens being the ultimate end-users of security research. The reference scenarios also assume that security missions of the “EU 2035” will increasingly stretch along the internal–external security continuum and that full integration of emergency management and civil protection within the scope of security research will be vital, along with its elevation to European level. Coordinated investment in preparedness is expected to play a major role here. The two reference scenarios “Policy Drives All in a Have/Have-Not World” (security research on natural disasters and the global environment) and “No Land is an Island” (A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities) can be expected to have the highest impact at national level. Of the countries that have national security research programmes/strategies in place and were covered in the assessment, Austria, Germany, Norway, Sweden, and Spain would be most strongly affected by the reference scenarios, should they materialise. Materialisation of the scenarios would have strong overall impact on France, Italy, the Netherlands, or the UK. These countries could largely proceed with their current security research approaches and security strategies to meet the scenarios’ requirements. While the reference scenarios have different loads on the drivers and a different thematic focus, the following cross-cutting scenario descriptors common to all reference scenarios were identified: • Monitoring/detection/surveillance instruments for external threats; • Comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment; • EU as a comprehensive security provider, including the approach to resilience of systems, infrastructures, and societies; • EU legislative frameworks evolve toward more inter-institutional and international cooperation; • Security research merges with emergency management and disaster research; • EU role embraces coordination, data exchange, and early alert; • EU’s security–safety continuum grows stronger; • EU’s internal (homeland) security policy increases; • Ethical research rises to the top of EU research agenda, with increasing focus on influence of societal factors on security strategies; • Critical infrastructures and supply chains adapt to societal changes and security needs; • Societal awareness increases via citizen education and risk communication; • Advanced public-private partnerships for security technology development and implementation; • Harmonised risk management for preparedness and response at EU and Member State level; • Comprehensive risk assessment framework for critical infrastructures and supply chains; • EU has new public funding mechanisms for technologies aimed at closing security gaps; • security research is supporting policy and strategic studies for early warning purposes, with emphasis on CBRN mission scenarios. This in the first place means the EU should look for ways in which technologies and capabilities can support a stronger comprehensive approach for common emerging and future security threats. FOCUS insights on cross-cutting aspects speak in favour of a future European security research system that better accommodates social sciences and humanities in order to propose ways to more strongly link civil security authorities to citizenry, and citizenry to technologies. Among further conclusions for “security research 2035” drawn by FOCUS is that that future European security research should meet the challenge to develop a new concept of (civil) security from research, rather than deriving it from events, technologies, or existing policies. It should also clearly address the risk of an uneven distribution of security across European society, for example by using technologies that only add to the security of the wealthy, or by deploying security solutions that even may harm certain parts of society. At the same time, future research planning should more comprehensively address social media communications technologies for their ability to better connect policymakers and civil security end-users to public/civil society audiences, and to enable policymakers to communicate to the latter. FOCUS scenario foresight took as its point of departure the project’s five “Big Themes” as described above, and while not necessarily intended to do so, the reference scenario process resulted in scenarios where each mainly represents one of those “Big Themes.” 2.3.2 Reference scenario summaries 2.3.2.1 “No Land is an Island” – A protected EU homeland with external responsibilities In 2035, the EU and its Member States have developed a common “securitisation model” that guides security policy along the internal–external continuum. It rests on a much closer integration of national security research programmes with that of the EU to help Europe deal with security incidents. This collective policy-foundation determines which topics will fall under security research, whose results are fed into trans-disciplinary information and data architecture that is made accessible to a wide range of EU stakeholders involved in Europe’s internal and external security domains. The “securitisation model” approach has led to the definition of systematic “qualification profiles” regarding human resources and technical advances, which have been embedded into academic curricula. The goal is to shape future generations of security researchers and stakeholders within the context of the EU’s comprehensive approach to internal and external security policy. While the EU prides itself as an “open” system that accords respects for a multilateral world, its security research system is largely homeland-focused and geared to an integrated risk-management/all-hazard approach for coping with security threats to the Union’s own territory. The EU’s definition of security has expanded to establish many connections to safety as well. This complicates the capabilities required but ensures a more complete approach to the EU’s security-of-the-citizen imperative, while linking to relevant industry strategies and programmes. Internally, the EU has substantially expanded its early-warning capabilities and rapid-alert systems regarding civil threats. It has also built on national-owned civil protection modules of disaster response capabilities with its own layer of EU-owned or leased capabilities to supplement gaps across the Union. Resilience involving cross-border critical infrastructure, however, remains weak for lack of strong EU regulation of the sector. Externally, the EU’s policy building-blocks are more restricted. Its comprehensive approach in this domain is basically one of coordinating autonomous actors who share information and pool resources due to domestic budgetary restrictions. Nonetheless, the securitisation model generates requirements for each of the EU’s approved roles as comprehensive security provider, with identified gaps in capabilities addressed through targeted research efforts. While the EU also now owns some CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) assets, most still belong to the Member States, though their mutual supply dependency has increased due to tighter pooling and sharing of assets compared to 2009, when the idea was first launched. The EU’s intra-governmental “Athena Fund” for external missions has expanded beyond strict funding of only common Headquarters costs to include certain deployment and other operational costs. For external application, security research supports the development of technical capabilities to link the autonomous actors of EU missions together such as data-exchange systems and situational awareness. It also supports skills development and training to enable the EU’s strategic and operational missions to cover all aspects (socio-economic, environmental, societal, political, etc.) of the crisis management cycle, from mitigation and preparedness to response, recovery, and reconstruction. Internally, the securitisation model has led security research to crystallise around half a dozen broad themes. One embraces cost-benefit analysis and the identification of vulnerabilities of centralised versus decentralised economic and administrative systems. Another one targets assessment of technologies for their ecological impact which, however, carries the risk of slowing the technologies’ implementation. security research has contributed to commonly-owned European security assets and capabilities that evolve from public-private cooperation. These are partly shared by civil and military actors. Hence, it is difficult to reach case-by-case consensus on their use. Moreover, major security research themes stress supply chain security (including critical infrastructures in banking, financial and insurance networks); mission scenarios arising from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats; and public health security issues linked to risky products, procedures and services. Given that cybercrime is a global phenomenon causing significant damage to the EU’s internal market in 2035, a research track is dedicated to the cyber dimension of security. A final overarching security research theme is data integration, particularly the extent to which standards-based information can be distributed across multiple public and private-sector organisations and their sub-units. This is critical to the management of communications, improved operational coordination as well as integrated planning and decision-making across the EU, its Member States, industry, societal, and first-responder groups. However, public and private sectors alike have understood that achieving an optimal level of data integration involves a trade-off: higher coordination means a decrease in local flexibility – and possibly effectiveness. This demands a combined bottom-up approach that connects academic disciplines involved in broad foresight to various stakeholders within and outside the EU, with rigorous vetting of the compliance of security research activities and projects with the EU’s ethical and data privacy rules. 2.3.2.2 “Policy Drives All in a Have/Have-Not World” – security research on natural disasters and the global environment By 2035, there is growing awareness across decisions-makers in the EU that competing national and regional policies beyond their borders are producing an increasingly fragmented world, split into tiny privileged elites versus the teeming masses of “have-nots.” The rapidly evolving risk for everyone is a disastrous collapse of society and civilisation. The EU wants realignment toward a consensual international policy designed to confront this divergence. But the regions retreat further into their own parochial agendas, where power derives from political groupings at the expense of society at large, democracy, and the environment. A central strand in the EU’s security research programme is to develop internal and external security mitigation/adaptation strategies needed for a world split into haves and have-nots. A parallel research strand aims to push back against this externality by focusing on ethics, individual freedom, and rights to further promote the EU’s democratic structures, thus offering a role model to the outside world. The goal is to counter the threats posed to the global environment caused by competing regional policies. This calls for better communication and dissemination techniques to broaden the EU public’s understanding of the regulatory and policy tools needed to mitigate those regions’ deleterious policies. Society is under pressure of rapid global environmental change. Research urgently needs to find ways to combine prevalent short-term solutions to imminent problems with effective long-term measures. Inside the EU a certain degree of sustainable development technologies in 2035 has been taken up by the markets. Even this modest achievement gives the EU a leading role in the research and application of renewable energies and recycling technologies, where a huge international market has opened in response to costly fossil fuels. At the same time, Europe’s recycling has helped reduce its dependency on raw material imports such as copper and rare earths. The nuclear industry’s rocketing safety and security costs, together with several severe accidents, are pushing the sector to extinction. Security research includes analysis of cheap, safe, and rapid techniques for dismantling the sector’s infrastructure and minimising nuclear waste-related risks. Although EU policymakers in 2035 know that Europe’s centralised electricity power grid is a main source of vulnerability to attack, decentralisation and localisation of energy production is not achievable, however, since it is opposed by the grid’s large corporations that still own and control most of the infrastructure. The EU in 2035 also wants better forecasting of natural disasters, a goal shared and co-funded by industry since better modelling would help reduce the overall cost of an event’s impact. The systems aim to target the drivers of natural disasters and refine long-term forecasts about the planet’s ecological limits. This “greener” research footing calls for evaluating the compatibility of technologies, trade regulations and international treaties with the global environment, as well as developing alternative fiscal systems that shift tax bases away from labour to resource use and waste. Complementary EU policy in 2035 favours natural disaster resiliency linked to re-creating natural river beds and mixed forests to combat erosion and promote bio-diversity. This leads to a new EU land-classification system that supports organic farming based on old seeds and locally adapted, highly resilient non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism) cultivars. Despite its green efforts, new climate-change related diseases are on the rise in the EU. Combined with Europe’s increase in life expectancy, these factors lead to huge investments in gerontology, while research examines how shifting habitats will generate new epidemiological threats, such as vector-transmitted diseases. 2.3.2.3 “Security as Societal Science” – Critical infrastructure and supply chain research driven by societal factors In 2035, security management has become a risk-driven process. Collaboration between international organisations, Member States, EU bodies, civil society organisations and the private sector via security data compilation, crowd sourcing, and information sharing has led to the establishment of a harmonised risk management approach at EU and Member States’ level. This covers both preparedness and response. The EU 2035 faces strong demands for critical infrastructure by politics, industry, and society: Critical infrastructures and supply chains are desired to be designed adaptable to social change and evolving citizens’ security needs and resilient to negative effects of interdependencies within Europe and with critical infrastructures in third countries. Broad-scale scale-public private partnerships are put in place for development and implementation of critical infrastructures, and supporting research, to meet these demands and close security gaps. Critical infrastructures are also desired and required to have a harmonised all-hazard driven security management approach, covering the full crisis management cycle and societal consequences of breakdown. The EU recognises the high degree of interconnectivity and interdependency with third-country infrastructures (especially regarding energy, raw materials, and food supply chains). It thus seeks a legislative framework that supports inter-institutional and international coordination of critical infrastructure and supply chain protection. It also seeks the adaptability of critical infrastructures and supply chains to societal factors changes, evolving security conditions, and the gaps that emerge from these. Policy focuses on developing rapid response mechanisms to manage social stress caused by supply chain disruptions. A significant strand of security research has developed into a social science discipline addressing the influence of societal factors on security strategies. The public perception of security technologies and their benefits for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection still varies greatly across the Member States. This calls for increasing societal awareness through risk communication and citizen education, particularly in view of the potential loss of public trust in institutions and agencies at national and European level should critical infrastructures of supply lines fail. A comprehensive approach to creating resilience of infrastructures and societies is needed, and new public funding mechanisms for technologies to close security gaps are under review. However, much of this responsibility in 2035 has shifted to the private sector and public-private partnerships. Governments relay heavily on the latter for analysis of supply chain and their interdependencies, management, and resilience. Policy objectives include a comprehensive cataloguing of critical supplies for the European economy, along with the factors that could disrupt the supply of these materials to the EU. Though technologies in 2035 have seen improvements and new options for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection, the EU’s decision-making process for emergencies is still too cumbersome. Better technological solutions in the form of visualisation tools are needed to support the monitoring of large-scale interdependencies between critical infrastructures and supply chain networks. To minimise the impact of security incidents on these infrastructures, and to mitigate long-term social, political and economic impacts of breakdown and disruption, the EU and its Member States have agreed to a mutual support system based on openness and cooperation. Security research thus includes organisational studies about incident awareness and the most optimal managerial and decision-making structures. Experience has shown that data integration can also augment related costs and create security gaps by increasing the size and complexity of the design required. Security research assesses the pros and cons of various levels of data integration from the point of view of cost and trade-off between complexity and size. Indeed, research also focuses on the interdependencies lying along the EU’s internal–external security continuum. This calls for scenario-related cross-border simulations of incidents involving supranational supply chain networks, with advanced risk assessment methodologies that reflect unexpected changes such as new threats or breakdowns of interconnected infrastructures – an effort that knits together a broad range of disciplines, from physical and logistical security to threats to human safety and the environment. 2.3.2.4 “Borderless Threats = Mission Creep” – The EU’s forced march toward a stronger Common Security and Defence Policy In 2035, the EU’s policy to counter cyber-attacks is paramount since this form of societal defence has become all-encompassing for Europe’s economic, industrial, and scientific development. Continuous cooperative vulnerability assessments involving as many countries as possible have become a priority. This requires technology assessment expertise, simulation capabilities, legal and economic innovations, as well as capability developments running along the defence–security continuum. In its 2035 operational environment, the EU has seen an expansion of simulation capabilities, in particular in the functions of high-tech monitoring systems such as Copernicus and Galileo for strengthening EU action across its crisis management cycle. A strong transatlantic framework of homeland cooperation has emerged, though it is geared towards joint pragmatic/operational action, but not necessarily towards joint technology development. Internally, there is a risk of the EU having developed over-sophisticated capabilities in response to a permanent structured cooperation in security-defence matters agreed by a core of self-selected Member States. Elsewhere, political pressure across all the Member States has led to a strong focus on collectively managing maritime crises in a highly competitive environment. This trend grew steadily from earlier in the century as the EU’s global reach expanded via the necessary translation of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) into practice in order to confront external threats and challenges. The EU thus fosters the exploitation of dual-use technologies within a “smart defence” context. This approach is reinforced by the EU Member States’ mutual dependence and vulnerability of maritime security in 2035. At the same time, political pressure has led to a parallel focus on non-technological security research and development in areas such as macro-economic financial instruments or EU industrial strategies. This calls for cost effective and comprehensive European solutions to support them, which however sees systemic resiliency tending to get priority over resilience of the citizen per se. Meanwhile, certain security threats such as those emanating from the proliferation of CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) materials or failed states continue to be evaluated largely in a nationalist context. An exception is the threat of supply chain disruptions and how to manage them. There is an EU 2035 consensus across the Member States to prevent and prepare for disruptions in technological terms. This prompts significant EU research focused on the challenge, which includes strategic studies into early warning capabilities and to support CSDP decisions. 2.3.2.5 “Inside Out” – Inward coherence and governance opens the door to external policy By 2035, the EU has become the governing authority of scientific and technological innovations related to security of the citizen. A major policy imperative in 2035 has seen capability development lead to a convergence of research in the fields of civil security, policing needs, emergency response, and disaster management. This convergence has opened the way to linking the EU’s internal decision-making structures and processes to its external strategic environment. Security research contributes to meeting related technology needs such as collaborative technologies for interagency work and intelligence sharing. Progressive standards and codes of conduct are critical to enabling the EU to implement responsible technology governance. Citizens play a growing role in decision-making processes and are anxious that their rights and liberties, as well as foundations for living, are protected, while the EU expanded its internal framework into a homeland security system. Citizens want a role for the EU as a security actor – within and beyond the Union – but checked and closely overseen by the European Parliament and other mechanisms. Climate change is indisputably accepted by EU 2035 policymakers as a limiting factor on key resources. One result is that also for this reason, national and EU decision-makers consistently focus on public perceptions of citizens' security needs. Security research among other things contributes new social media-based technologies for knowledge management and information integration. Multidisciplinary mapping of fundamental rights enforcement and the acceptability of security technologies and interventions have become paramount across the EU Member States. Security research thus comprises a technology track and an institutional one that covers organisational analyses and critical studies linked to the EU’s internal functioning regarding its security sector. Main research themes are based on promoting public-private partnerships and relate to commonly perceived strategic challenges of threats such as remote sensing, communications, mobility, critical dependencies, cyber attacks, CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear), or climate change-related incidents, with a focus on development of capabilities for comprehensive use – together with advancing standards and codes of conduct for mainstreaming responsible technology governance. Parallel to this development, organisational studies linking threats and risk assessments to decision-making have become valuable tools in 2035 for national and EU decision-makers. These focus on ever-growing strategic threats that can originate as easily beyond the EU as within it. Above all, however, a more efficient and effective EU internal framework is the first priority of research and policy. Security research therefore essentially includes development and improvement of educational measures enabling all-of-community approaches. It further includes critical studies of institutional qualities and European capabilities to provide comprehensive support to the European citizens in times of crisis, involving increased acceptable and accepted use of technologies. 2.4 The coming of societal security: Cross discipline/transversal aspects FOCUS foresight results and horizon scanning affirm that “security” – all the more in its future shape and character – is a collective good that in the first place relates to citizens and society. Without public acceptance and inclusion of citizens in the creation of security and in the “production” of solutions to security problems, those solutions will be considerably limited in their effectiveness. This includes results from security research projects and their implementation. FOCUS expects that future security research will become a part of the equation of security policy, and as such become a societal enterprise. A comprehensive approach to security research and to security in the EU therefore needs to consider and address citizens in an inclusive way, not only treating them as the ultimate end-users of security research. Rather, security research should focus on solving needs of citizens, not only on the impacts of security interventions. Citizens’ perspectives should be integrated into the research process and into the programming of security research. This is ever more important since it can be expected that technological innovation and further spread of networked structures will create new vulnerabilities, which will require increased societal awareness and resilience. Technology not only can contribute to security or by itself create new vulnerabilities. It also has the potential to change human behaviour and to drive the evolution of security cultures. Citizens’ fear of being controlled by technology can change their behaviour as well as new opportunities for community activities, such as crowdsourcing of information about hazards and disasters to support mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. As those examples indicate, it can be expected that future development and application of technology will not by themselves create security or vulnerability. Rather, they will accentuate existing trends, processes, and repertories of action that are socially rooted. Social networks will play an ever growing important role in information dissemination, opinion mining, and public decision making. The unstructured and informal nature of social networks is a challenge for state authorities, which traditionally operate in a linear, top-down manner. This clash of cultures requires new procedures and training schemes for civil servants, officials, and volunteers. Considering aspects like those, it becomes clear that there is more than the societal dimension of security: the societal creation of security. There are no effective technological solutions without acceptance and public participation. With internal and external security becoming less and less separable in a variety of sectors, citizens will have to be better involved in security processes. At the same time, the further development of Europe’s civil security cannot be conceived without technology, and technology will contribute to increase societal resilience. However, new technology can also decrease resilience as criminals and terrorists exploit it, which becomes most obvious in the cyber dimension. The coming of societal security will bring new challenges for industry and require improved and new products. Drawing a conclusion from the above, not only a comprehensive approach that unifies efforts will be needed in the future, but also a holistic approach that comprises technology, society, culture, and change. As an all-of-society enterprise, future security research will require planning beyond traditional end-user satisfaction to anticipate societal requirements and stimulate future demand, thus contributing to the setting of requirements instead of just meeting existing end-user requirements. Security does play a role in a variety of discourses, but it remains a vague term that is under constant change. Security research needs to increasingly include perspectives from the humanities and social sciences to provide practical criticism of the evolution of the concept of security in the EU and its impact on citizens and society. Security research should provide a better connection of the disciplines involved. It should establish networked expertise for rapid decision support for end-users. In this context, security research should analyze citizens’ security needs. It should also contribute to the continuous evaluation of national and European civil security strategies from both a scientific and a societal security point of view. The reference scenario analysis also yielded main expected ethics aspects, including the following: • Need of development of technology for privacy and trusted data by design along with security-enhancing technology; • Assessment of security technology opportunities/possibilities vs. citizens’ needs; • Creation of different levels of security in society; • Ethics of security economics (e.g., unintended consequences of “smart” and effects-based approaches); • Increasing infrastructure for capturing, storing, linking, merging, processing, and visualising very large social media datasets with implications for fundamental citizens’ rights, freedom of expression, and data privacy issues; • Major consideration of non-technological issues such as trust and resilience; • Risk of developing over-sophisticated technology that does not respond well to security gaps and/or citizens’ needs; • Risk of departure from normal liberal democratic standards (such as protection of liberties, separation of powers, and endorsement of checks and balances), for example in measures to drive/compel social and individual change of behaviour to mitigate climate change, or limit cyber vulnerability; • Possible divergence between ethical security research and socially acceptable research: There can be a social consensus in favour of security measures that violate human rights, and security research that supports those measures; • Need to provide norms and standards beyond security technology frameworks. To better address those aspects in the future, FOCUS proposed ethics guidelines for security research, at the level of additional ethical review options for project proposals and in the progress of projects. This is part of the FOCUS roadmap proposal for “security research 2035” and the project’s “Conclusions for ‘security research 2035’,” as summarised in the subsequent chapter. 2.5 FOCUS conclusions for “security research 2035” With its emphasis on foresight (not prediction) and the transversal, ethical, and broader societal implications of its scenarios, the FOCUS project points to the emerging “Horizon 2020” programme by supporting security research planning activities. However, the time frame of the FOCUS project is 2035, thus reaching beyond “Horizon 2020.” Consequently, FOCUS is not dedicated towards “Horizon 2020” itself but to longer-term planning for security research that supports the anticipated future roles of the EU as a security provider. Scenario foresight results indicate that there may be sectoral confinements of the comprehensive approach by 2035, depending on the evolution of challenges. It may be that the concept of comprehensiveness guiding the “EU 2035” as a security actor will be centred on sectors such as critical infrastructure protection or public health, with multidisciplinary security research reduced to such sectors. A major conclusion therefore is that future European security research in the 2035 time frame should be geared to the creation of a suitable concept of comprehensive security, thus leading to the security of individual Member States and the Union as a whole. Future security research should propose ways to manage specific factors, vulnerabilities, risks, and possibilities to common aims, which will contribute to the security and development of the EU as a Union. FOCUS has shown that the planning of “security research 2035” will be driven by a variety of factors that apply across different themes and scenarios identified in the project. The top-10 drivers include: 1. Comprehensive (societal, economic, and institutional) resilience to crises and disasters; 2. Science and technology innovation; 3. Practical strength of the “European Security Model,” as advocated in the EU Internal Security Strategy (2010): addressing the causes of insecurity and not just the effects; prioritising prevention and anticipation, and involving all sectors with a role to play in public protection; 4. Asymmetry of capabilities of Member States, the EU, and adversaries – including regionalisation vs. globalisation of security; 5. Convergence or divergence of security cultures; 6. Extent of information and intelligence sharing, and early warning capabilities – including policies for information exchange; 7. Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation analyses, including their use to secure public acceptance and support; 8. Changing national security capacities and levels of asymmetry (relative difference between the capacity of nations to influence security affairs); 9. Whole of community approach based on technological facilitation and empowerment; 10. Extent of dependency on technology, as well as of critical (inter)dependencies between technologies. Giving those multiple forces that are expected to shape the path towards “security research 2035,” the thrust of the EU as a comprehensive security provider to its citizens will depend on the degree consistency and coherence of security research at national and European levels. • Consistent security research accumulates knowledge across disciplines, sectors, and cases, in order to timely identify most important gaps and needs for the further implementation of security strategies. • Coherent security research is a cooperative intellectual effort at national and European levels to contribute to the definition and implementation of a common European security agenda across different themes, funding lines, epistemic communities, and stakeholders. External challenges to the security of the EU in the coming decades will be fraught with uncertainty, involving state and non-state actors that combine conventional and asymmetric methods. These challenges will encompass physical space, cyberspace, and natural resources. High-intensity cyber threats attack against European critical infrastructures could easily generate a cascading effect on other infrastructures, with devastating consequences for society. While problems with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will persist, they may be superseded by threats from intelligent, unmanned devices designed for warfare and industrial espionage. These trends will increase conflict between global security and personal security, and the definition of the limits between privacy and public information. In the light of these multiple challenges, security research should essentially include research into societal security. Among other goals, the results should provide advice to authorities for making the appropriate trade-offs between security and other valued societal objectives, while bearing in mind the deepening and widening of European integration and possible future Europeanisation of security-relevant policies. Relations between EU security strategies and its long-term visions such as the Digital Agenda will also have to be addressed. Future security research should help identify and address – and not just note and implement – security-related challenges and requirements in both technological and non-technological aspects. In this vein, the planning of future security research, as supported by the FOCUS project, should consider which factors will drive evolution of the concept of security in the 2035 time frame. FOCUS foresight yielded the following ranked top-10 drivers for determining what “security” might mean in a future “EU 2035,” with the factors of resources and resilience being the two most important groups of drivers: 1. Crises resulting from scarcity of resources (e.g. energy-caused stress and, most importantly, increasing scarcity of conventional oil; dependencies on supply chains); 2. Societal resilience and preparedness: Certain risks cannot be catered to or avoided, and societies must prepare for shocks and have the ability to recover; 3. Changing borderlines between internal and external security, including the extent of relations with the world’s leading countries; 4. Technological change, including new technologies that drive or change security needs; 5. Mass migration flows, e.g. due to economic disparity, global conflicts, natural disasters, and climate change; 6. International conflicts that involve cyber-techniques and/or competition for energy and other scarce resources; 7. Diffusion of power within and among nation-states, marked by the rise of densely populated and economically powerful China and India, as well as the increased importance of energy-rich states and regions; 8. Dependency on information and communication technology, and technology in general (with a focus on a cascading breakdown of connected systems); 9. Demographic shifts with pressure on resources; 10. Increased reliance on critical infrastructures which are vulnerable, have little spare capacity, operate at the edges of performance and loads, and are critically dependent on other infrastructures. The instruments in support of the EU’s global roles may include stronger justice and law enforcement capabilities; improved EU intelligence and early warning capabilities; financial instruments for influencing economic developments on a global scale; good governance and institution building in security sectors; or civil society-related and cultural instruments, including media, social networks, etc. Future security research should contribute to and build on those instruments. For an effective European homeland security system to emerge, future security research should address organisational issues such as integration of national and international agencies. Future security research should also increasingly consider the societal impact of comprehensiveness. This will mean bringing together and applying various disciplines. It should aim to mainstream terminology to improve linguistic interoperability between different communities of practice and of knowledge, provide a better connection of the disciplines involved, establish networked expertise to provide rapid decision support for end-users, and contribute to continuous evaluation of strategies of national and European civil security strategies. Moreover, future security research should essentially include research into societal security. For example, it should involve a track dedicated to quick response mechanisms for managing social stress resulting from interruption of supplies. Future security research should overall emphasise and help promote the principle of societal/citizen ownership (which views citizens as the final/ultimate end-users). This will be of increasing importance for the ethical and factual acceptability by the public of its results. At the same time, future security research should clearly address the risks of creating an uneven distribution of security across society, for example by technologies that only add to the security of the wealthy or security solutions that may even harm certain parts of society. Future security research tracks should finally include critical thinking (as opposed to an approach based on predominant end-user requirements) about past and existing concepts and how they may develop in the future. Also, mechanisms such as public consultation should be explored to increase transparency about the aims of security research and the potential use of technologies developed under its aegis. Finally, future security research should contribute to establish institutionalised relations between those actors involved in realising societal security; and it should make a specific contribution to the knowledge pool of the implementing organisation(s) and to the building of sustainable excellence of research and expertise, effective beyond project lifetime. FOCUS overall results reinforce the following set of criteria for good security research, conscious of its broader societal impact. Security research should: • Be based on the understanding that security mainly refers to people and society, and that technical solutions are not effective without the acceptance and participation of the public. • Include advice to authorities to make appropriate trade-offs between security and other valued societal objectives in the context of the deepening and widening of European integration and possible future Europeanisation of security relevant policies. • Consider significant social, cultural, ethical, legal, and political aspects of security from the very beginning of the research and development activities, that is, not only in the implementation perspective and in terms of public acceptance and ascribed legitimacy of its results and products. • Promote critical discussion of fundamental concepts – whether established or innovative – and their societal impact. • Involve a track dedicated to quick response mechanisms for managing social stress resulting from interruption of supplies. • Recognise that its technological innovations may also cause new societal vulnerabilities or create different levels of security in society. • Strongly consider that new technological environments should support the self-help capacity of the citizens, and that new technologies can change the structure and perception of crises and their management. • Strengthen – especially against the backdrop of “resilience” – a whole-of-community and ownership approach to security. As such, security research should act as a socialisation vector that builds resilience clusters that wherever possible comprise technology/capability, first responders, and ordinary citizens. • Help establish institutionalised relations between those actors involved in realising societal security. • Make a specific contribution to the knowledge pool of the implementing organisation(s) and to building sustainable excellence of research and expertise which is operational and effective beyond a project’s lifetime. 2.6 FOCUS roadmap proposal for “security research 2035” The FOCUS roadmap reflects the project's main conclusions for “security research 2035,” as led by the project's idea of making a contribution to a trans-disciplinary security research paradigm. The FOCUS roadmap proposal for the planning of “security research 2035” is geared towards implementation of anticipated research requirements as they arise from the FOCUS reference scenarios, as well as from analysis of cross-cutting (cross-scenario) aspects and transversal issues that are scenario-independent. The roadmap moreover integrates FOCUS results such as the curriculum matrix, and provides a knowledge landscape for the systematic selection of FOCUS content and results per roadmap track. A public “light” version of the roadmap is available on the IT-based Knowledge Platform. 2.7 FOCUS website This FOCUS website (http://www.focusproject.eu) is – and will remain after the project – the single entry point to FOCUS information (such as objectives, method, related projects, etc.) and products (such as deliverables, publications, and the IT-based Knowledge Platform). 2.8 FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform for support of foresight scenario-based planning for security research 2.8.1 Overview and knowledge landscape of the Platform FOCUS developed an IT-based Knowledge Platform, populated with studies done in the project and with tools developed or collected by the project, as well as with scenario information based on FOCUS foresight results. The immediate purpose of the Platform is to support planning of security research that is based on futuristic scenarios. Moreover, possible uses of the Platform beyond the immediate purpose of the FOCUS project were explored, with some implemented in the final version of the roadmap, such as planning for mission scenarios. The IT-based Knowledge Platform is the central entry point/landing page and knowledge management site for IT-related tools and supporting environments for scenario foresight, following the FOCUS project methodology. The main focus of the IT-based Knowledge Platform is to establish a structure where tools and scenario foresight instruments and results can be integrated and made publicly accessible. With the exception of some confidential content, the Platform is accessible without user/password restrictions. For validation purposes and in compliance with data protection regulations as well as the FOCUS information security strategy, a token-based system is in place for scenario foresight questionnaires implemented on the Platform, with hyperlinks to related online content. The document “FOCUS IT Platform main workbench” as included in the attachments to this report provides an overview of the knowledge landscape of the Platform. 2.8.2 Technological basis and development of the Platform The IT-based Knowledge Platform was developed as a part of FOCUS research work in order to explicate scenario foresight findings in a sustainable, IT-supported way. The goal was to externalise expert knowledge to such an extent that it can be consumed and used by others. The corresponding objective was to create a knowledge platform that supports not only collaboration between subject-matter experts but also hosts and makes selectable the knowledge created within FOCUS in such a way that other experts, projects, and end-users can follow the path provided by FOCUS in the future in their own scenario foresight and research (planning) work To achieve this, well-established knowledge management procedures were applied, building on the model-based knowledge management approach. This approach uses knowledge management and knowledge working environments, and it further improves the use of knowledge management models to support web platforms. The IT-based Knowledge Platform defines a so-called knowledge execution environment. For knowledge management purposes, the modelling tool PROMOTE® was used and further improved. For the knowledge execution platform, LIFERAY technology was used as basis technology and enriched with model-driven execution components from PROMOTE®. This technical development and deployment was performed in parallel to the various FOCUS scenario foresight processes and the collection of knowledge from subject-matter experts. Knowledge extraction was achieved via typical workshop and knowledge harvesting techniques in order to collect and externalise knowledge. This work was applied in each of the five domains (or “Big Themes”) of FOCUS and – rooted in the methodological baseline described in Deliverable 2.1 – extended to fully implement a process-oriented knowledge management approach. The main entry point is the so-called Workbench that provides different sections, listing various tools, resources, and products. There are several sections on the Platform representing the roadmap, the knowledge products for each individual “Big Theme,” as well as cross-theme content such as the European Security Glossary, scenario Wikis, scenario syllabus Wikis, or supporting material. 2.8.3 Wikis Implemented on IT-based Knowledge Platform, FOCUS wikis make scenario-related results and information available in various ways, including: • Five “Big Themes” – providing the basis for FOCUS scenario foresight, and related knowledge space. • Scenarios for security roles of the “EU 2035” – with futuristic mission scenarios for the EU as a security provider in the world of 2035 scenarios (alternative futures) for "security research 2035" to support "EU 2035" security roles. • Scenarios for “security research 2035” – to support those roles. • FOCUS reference scenarios – the basis for the FOCUS roadmap for the planning of future EU security research. • FOCUS foresight methods wiki – apart from providing basic information, aims to make experience from the FOCUS project available for subsequent projects as well as interested experts and researchers who intend to conduct scenario foresight. The wiki also includes a foresight tools repertory compiled by FOCUS. • European Security (Research) Glossary (ESG) –currently comprises more than 500 articles. It is a living document that will evolve beyond the lifetime of the FOCUS project. It explains acronyms and terms (with references) relevant for EU security and for the planning of security research in a 2035 time frame, as covered by the FOCUS project. Glossary content has been compiled from FOCUS deliverables and documents as well as supporting desk research. FOCUS created this basic glossary on security research to promote a common understanding on the subject for use by the public, authorities, researchers, and practitioners. Wiki implementation of results and information is intended to maintain the FOCUS momentum beyond the project’s lifetime, facilitate take-up by stakeholders and other projects, and provide a dynamic content structure that can be further developed. 2.8.4 Process stepper As an essential analytical part of the FOCUS IT-based Knowledge Platform, the process stepper (see illustration “FOCUS scenario foresight process stepper“ in the attachments to this report) for scenario foresight covers the phases of “scoping,” “modelling,” “threat analysis and filtering,” and “synthesis.” To walk through the FOCUS scenario foresight knowledge path per “Big Theme,” the user can select one of the phases to access the appropriate process stepper. Each process stepper supports the user by guiding you through its knowledge steps and offers additional supporting information for performing scenario foresight based on the FOCUS method. 2.8.5 Scenario foresight tool repository A repertory of scenario foresight methods and tools was established for use in the development of the FOCUS scenarios, of the reference scenarios, and for use beyond the project. This repertory contains tools that were developed by FOCUS (process stepper, scenario foresight questionnaire repository, European security research Glossary (ESG), document repository, etc.), as well as tools publicly available on the internet that were identified and used by FOCUS (http://www.focusproject.eu/web/focus/wiki/-/wiki/METHODS/FOCUS+tool+repertory). Potential Impact: 1 FOCUS output structure and products for follow on use FOCUS foreground is generally planned to be exploited by publications in relevant journals, edited volumes, etc. This is for different purposes such as expert and citizen education; policy planning; advancement of academic state of the art; etc. In general, FOCUS’ university partners intend to use the project’s curriculum-related results to expand their existing study programmes or launch new ones. Partners expect to stimulate interest from new areas of potential students via course offerings in “new security studies.” It is also expected that FOCUS results will evoke interest on the side of the EU or national agencies to consider them in their planning and implementation activities related to security research in the post-FP7 era. The figure “FOCUS output structure” as included in the attachments to this report illustrates the FOCUS project’s output landscape. The figure “FOCUS usable output” as included in the attachments to this report summarises FOCUS products for use, including beyond the lifetime of the project. In particular, the FOCUS website, the IT-based Knowledge Platform and its roadmap for planning of “security research 2035,” scenario wikis, the European Security (Research) glossary, etc. will remain available on http://www.focusproject.eu. At the same time, several follow-on actions are planned. The dissemination, follow-on use and exploitation strategy of FOCUS rests on this continued availability of content, tools, and functionality of the project’s website and IT-based Knowledge Platform. It is planned to raise commercial interest in using the IT Platform technology and provided a scenario foresight questionnaire repository with a questionnaire construction tool. Main goals of the FOCUS project included the dissemination of the obtained knowledge in order to contribute analytical foundations for security research planning for Horizon 2020 and beyond. This will lead to the development of a shared, harmonised understanding of new tracks in security research, and the comprehensive approach with a focus on exogenous challenges. To sum up, FOCUS in particular has the following potential for impact: • To disseminate the large quantity of knowledge and expertise that will gradually become available in the course of the FOCUS project; • To interact with envisaged end-users of the FOCUS project to ensure that the results produce maximal societal impact and visibility; • To take into account the different perspectives of these end-users (supranational, national and local authorities, and professionals working in the field); • To take social responsibility in any case that information may come up during the course of the FOCUS programme that may be useful or needed to be shared with authorities; • To integrate FOCUS results in academic training materials and sustainable business models. 2 Conferences, workshops, and fairs The consortium took full advantage of existing scientific community and stakeholder infrastructure (such as conferences, periodicals, and publication platforms) for communication and dissemination of security foresight-related project results. Several FOCUS partners are associated with one or more of those platforms. FOCUS participants moreover presented project results on more than 25 external conferences in more than 15 countries, with an emphasis on reaching beyond the EU and usual security foresight communities. Apart from participation in external conferences and workshops, FOCUS organised a couple of dissemination events, including: • A launch symposium in Brussels; • A mid-term symposium in Vienna, along with a FOCUS winter school; • An end-user day in Vienna with a FOCUS on the project’s IT aspects; and • A final symposium in Krems, organised by partner Danube University Krems (DUK). The development of the turnout for those events shows how FOCUS succeeded to create sustainable end-user interest in its work and results. With the group on “Future SEcurity Research” (FUSER) established in Xing (http://www.xing.com/net/pri18e2a4x/fuser), FOCUS created a platform to keep this community alive. Outreach beyond the EU were an important objective of FOCUS according to Annex I. Inter-project relations with the U.S. homeland security enterprise established by FOCUS also included dissemination activities on conferences and workshops, in addition to the common foresight work done. Highlights include participation in FEMA conferences and workshops, and in FEMA’s Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI, http://www.fema.gov/strategic-planning-analysis-spa-division/strategic-foresight-initiative). These activities lead to a transatlantic scenario workshop in Washington, DC that among other things yielded a roadmap track for developing transatlantic research themes in emerging common fields of U.S. Homeland security research and EU security research. These results were included in the FOCUS roadmap proposal for “security research 2035.” Another example of FOCUS outreach to new and emerging communities beyond those typical of the FP7 Security theme was the project’s presentation at the “itsa 2012” in Nuremberg, the leading German IT security fair and congress, attracting more than 5.000 visitors every year. Numerous visitors were informed about FOCUS objectives and results at the booth of FOCUS partner Danube University Krems (DUK), 2 FOCUS special issue of Information & Security – an International Journal Summarising results from various FOCUS studies, a special issue of “Information & Security” published in February 2013 presents selected results from the FOCUS project. A first group of articles discusses methods and techniques in scenario-based foresight as integrated and applied within FOCUS. A second group of articles presents selected empirical results from FOCUS scenario foresight on threats, risk management needs, and future EU roles as a comprehensive security provider. A third group introduces research planning implications from selected FOCUS security scenarios. A final set addresses the way ahead: how FOCUS methods and results could be useful beyond the immediate mission and scope of the project to guide policy development and industry strategies. The issue is available in full text (http://procon.bg/volume29). 3 Use of FOCUS results in other security research projects Use of FOCUS results in other security research projects in which some FOCUS partners are involved includes, for example, use of FOCUS roadmap tracks as checklists for ethics and societal security aspects in the newly started EU security research project AEROCEPTOR (http://www.aeroceptor.eu) on a remotely piloted aerial system (RPAS) to support police activity. Another example is the utilisation of FOCUS wikis – by FOCUS partners that are universities – in teaching and the use of another roadmap track to upgrade or develop new curricula. 4 Examples of other practical uses of FOCUS results FOCUS participated in the European Commission’s online consultation on security research in Horizon 2020 that was conducted in summer 2012. It submitted its so far reached results in the “Survey on possible research needs in Horizon 2020 ‘Secure Societies’.” ASFINAG’s (AUTOBAHNEN- UND SCHNELLSTRASSEN- FINANZIERUNGS-AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT) internal revision used FOCUS results form the “Big Theme” of “Critical infrastructure and supply chain protection” to prepare for an internal mid-term audit. Results from FOCUS will be used to formulate inputs into the Ascent Look Out trends (http://ascentlookout.atos.net/en-us) platform from FOCUS partner Atos. Ascent Look Out aims to raise awareness of the emerging trends, business needs, and technologies that will drive innovation, and takes into account socio-cultural, economic and political (SEP) impacts into different business markets and its trends. Ascent Look Out is updated every year with latest business, technology, and SEP trends. Therefore, thematic results from FOCUS will be used to enrich this tool and provide a more accurate insight in future security trends 5 Matching of main results from FOCUS with conclusions from the European Commission’s Security Research Event (SRE) 2013 At the HOMSEC 2013 fair and conference, held in Madrid in March 2013, the European Commission, Directorate General Enterprise and Industry, organised a Security Research Event (SRE2013, http://sre2013madrid.es). Next to discussing industry-related aspects in current and future security research, the event included a panel presentation and discussion about security research in Horizon 2020. FOCUS attended the event in order to gain latest insight about the matching of its results, and the way the presentation of its final results is being prepared, with current perspectives for future security research at European Commission and industry level. While SRE2013 emphasised the need to familiarise end-users with new and emerging technologies, FOCUS would add that security research should also contribute to educating end-users on the technology-society link, on policy scenarios that the use of technology may have to cope with in the future, as well as on social and cultural contexts of acceptance and use of technology. The FOCUS roadmap proposal can support such an approach by its included curriculum matrix that also comprises an executive education module. Moreover, from the FOCUS point of view, based on the results of its multiple foresight work, future security research planning should go beyond a mission-centred approach. Future security research should not only help create economic opportunities and positioning the EU on the global marked as a provider of security technology. Rather, it should support the EU to make not only enhanced product-related but also enhanced political offerings in a globalised world. Framework programmes are a mechanism, while security should be a reality. From the industry point of view and related to the European Commission’s “Action Plan for an innovative and competitive security industry,” the need was pointed out on SRE2013 increase joint-up analyses of security gaps, challenges, and technological requirements, in particular by bringing together industry and end users. This pointed beyond the common FP7 security research approach to bring together research and end-users. It reinforces FOCUS’ conclusion that the concept of research to meet pre-defined end-user requirements should be amended in the future and that the path taken in FOCUS can be valuable to follow further. For example, the FOCUS reference scenarios and roadmap include prioritisation of security technology needs as well as of end-user requirements in the world of 2035. In the “end-user memorandum” on the reference scenarios (Deliverable 1.4) – which was written based on online collaboration of representatives from end-user and industry sectors – it was, among other things, concluded that end-user and industry interaction should become more futuristic. That is, it should not only concentrate on what the market has to offer today but also reflect both future policy and future technology changes/innovations for EU security-related activities in 2035, including identification of possible new players. The need articulated on SRE2013 to for example involve agencies in charge of procurement in security research and demonstrate this research field’s uses, with a focus on pre-operational validation, points to a future possible context of use of the FOCUS scenarios and its identified futuristic key technologies. SRE2013’s addressing of the relevance of harmonisation of needs and of improved exploitation of public-private partnerships as a tool in the security sector are in line with, and underscore, FOCUS foresight results. SRE2013 panels moreover focused on creating synergies with defence, following the Lisbon Treaty’s abolition of the EU’s “three pillar structure” and the creation of the legal base to extend future security research to the “external dimension” of EU security. Addressing new challenges of dual use in this regard, discussion showed another possible additional context of use of FOCUS scenarios: SRE2013 concluded that technology as such cannot be considered civil or military before it is applied to certain needs and/or functions. FOCUS scenarios – in particular from the Big Theme of the “EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks ” – can provide contexts in which future drawing lines between “dual use” and “military only ” – and future security needs and functions that will give technology a civil or military character – can be explored. 6 Socio-economic impact Indicators for the socio-economic impact assessment of FOCUS are listed in Section 4.3, Tables C to H of this report. Accordingly, the overall employment effect of the project was 25 Full Time Equivalents. 40% of the total project staff were women. A total of 8 persons were hired by beneficiaries specifically for the purpose of the FOCUS project. 7 Wider societal implications FOCUS overall results reinforce a clear set of criteria for good security research that is conscious of its broader societal impact. For example, security research should include advice to authorities to make appropriate trade-offs between security and other valued societal objectives, while security research projects should make a well defined and tangible contribution to the development of security research as a societally relevant discipline. Addressing ethical aspects is not only a requirement for good research. It is also of high importance for citizens’ perception of the scientific integrity and societal impact of security research. Addressing ethical aspects in security research thus contributes to the social legitimacy of its scientific efforts, as well as society’s acceptance and use of its results and products. FOCUS results indicate that there is still a tendency to address ethical aspects via normative means by enacting policies and procedures that reduce the risk of negative ethical and societal impacts. There is, to begin with, the reluctance of some Member States to connect “Security” with “Inclusive Societies” as an integrated theme of Horizon 2020 research. Instead, the preference has been for discussion of “Security” as a separate research theme. This may be interpreted as a reluctance to regard security research as a societal enterprise. On the one hand, a certain amount of security research, however much it is influenced by consultation with concerned parts of civil society, can involve secrecy, or at least restricted information. This is reflected also in some of the security classifications of research deliverables in FP7. Not everything is made public. On the other hand, security research has in the past been under informed by detailed information on societal attitudes to some of the relevant technology, and research on for example the degree and prevalence in different parts of the EU of worry or fear about different kinds of security threat: organised crime in some areas; terrorism in others. A properly informed and responsive security programme is not necessarily the same as research that is primarily or exclusively social scientific; or that is led by civil society to the exclusion of technology developers and exporters. FOCUS therefore recommends • Socially informed and socially responsive security research, where this is different from an entirely new socially formed and social-scientific research science. Many of the FOCUS reference scenarios, especially the one considering the EU as providing a comprehensive approach to security and security research, raise issues with ethical aspects – from financial and other burden-sharing to tensions between subsidiarity on the one hand and effectiveness and affordability on the other. Since many security research issues are connected with rights regarded as fundamental under the EU constitution but not necessarily with a long history of being respected everywhere, differences in the security and rights traditions of different countries and especially of accession countries compared to more long-standing Member States also need to be addressed in the associated security research. To be appropriately informed in this regard, security research sometimes requires a special concentration on sections of populations whose attitudes are in transition and to whom historical studies are relevant. This is in line with the FOCUS recommendation that there should be more • Social sciences and humanities research. In the reference scenarios in FOCUS concerned with research arising from global climate change, work is envisaged which will emphasise the requirements of disaster prevention, especially from the use of carbon-intensive technologies. This research will certainly raise • Ethical issues concerning the dependence of prosperity and employment on non-green consumer and other preferences, and what can be done to introduce new green technologies that are socially acceptable. Those technologies include devices to monitor, model, and conserve the environment and natural resources, and to mitigate negative anthropogenic impacts on the environment. As in other areas of research that connect with the FOCUS reference scenarios, there will be regional disparities in the adoption of green measures by both business and the public, so that the degree and burdens of adaptation will be greater in some places than others. What permissible measures can be introduced to make the transition to greener behavior both speedy and socially acceptable? How far will this involve economic dislocation? These are questions that indicate some of the ethical dimensions of research on the prevention of a climate-change disaster. In the case of climate change, security research will have to include recommendations not only of what businesses and governments must do to change, but also how individual behaviour might be encouraged or required to become greener. Metering of energy use is already in force, and this could increase in the era of the “smart home,” especially in urban areas. This might be a socially necessary but perhaps disliked kind of surveillance for the sake of reducing the speed of climate change. Its apparently authoritarian aspects might need to be made the subject of social science research. Cybersecurity is an important focal point of the reference scenarios, both in connection with critical infrastructures and in general. Since a certain amount of health monitoring in 2035 will be carried out digitally, the security of e-health systems will be important to both governments and populations in the EU. This might be a point of vulnerability to hostile attack or to a sort of blackmail of governments. In such cases, vulnerability is known to be reduced if numbers of networks are multiplied, but this is at the cost of interoperability, which has been a principal focus of FP7 research. Future security research should thus include a track that focuses on ethical aspects from a more comprehensive point of view, while preserving and enhancing the level of awareness for ethical issues that can arise from security research, and the formal methods to ensure ethical integrity of research. Furthermore, the FOCUS project yielded self-experience regarding the awareness for effects and wider societal implication of foresight work in security research. It turned out that parts of FOCUS foresight, such as online crowdsourcing of scenario information, exhibited to some extent the character of action research – not only producing knowledge and identifying technological requirements, but changing mindsets and levels of awareness on the side of the experts involved. However, lessons learned in the project’s foresight exercises include that stakeholders in some cases did not feel that they were in fact users/stakeholders of current or future security research. FOCUS made a contribution to the raising of appropriate awareness. 8 Exploitation of results 9.1 Overview Exploitation is addressed in Template B2 of the present report. Applying and deploying results, insights, and foresighting scenarios developed in the FOCUS project will be a main goal of exploitation activities by all partners after the project’s lifetime. Integrating the results, especially the foresighting methods will put European consulting agencies and academia at the forefront of the international security communities. Realising this potential is the main goal of the consortium’s exploitation strategy and plan as detailed in Deliverable 9.7. All exploitation activities are governed by the procedures and Intellectual Property Rights regulations set forth in the FOCUS Consortium Agreement and described in Deliverable 9.3, Chapter 7. FOCUS project partners, including consultants, editors, and SMEs, are mainly focusing their exploitation activities on improving their expertise, standing, current operation and business position in existing markets and on the creation of and preparation for new challenges, with the intention to secure a strong leadership position in these fields. FOCUS partners that are universities intend to use FOCUS curriculum-related results to expand or their existing, or launch new, study programmes. Partners expect to raise interest from new sectors of potential students due to their ability to make new course offerings in "new security studies." FOCUS partners also plan to enter new markets using FOCUS tools, studies, and comprehensive expertise to offer consultancy and services based on foreground generated in the project. This is detailed in Template B2. It is also expected that FOCUS results can evoke interest on the side of the EU or national agencies to consider them in their planning and implementation activities related to security research in the post-FP7 era. For example, partner DUK expects to be able to conclude long-term consultancy contracts with Austrian federal government bodies. Those FOCUS partners that are also end-users, such as ISDEFE, expect to enhance existing capabilities in technology watch, horizon scanning and foresight, and resulting future opportunities for improving consulting services as well as new opportunities to collaborate in R&D projects. The following examples illustrate FOCUS exploitation potential and plans per given category: 9.2 General advancement of knowledge • Publications for expert and citizen education as well as for policy planning: FOCUS team members will work together to identify possible journals/publishers and will collaborate on submission of articles drawn from FOCUS studies/deliverables; • Practically using FOCUS criteria for good security research and consideration of ethics aspects as summarised in Deliverable 8.4: Providing ethics and social sciences/humanities aspects checklists for other FP7 security research projects, such as AEROCEPTOR. • Exploiting R&D results academically: scenario questionnaire repository and construction tool as well as wikis on IT-based Knowledge Platform, for use as a knowledge acquisition tool for crowdsourcing of scenario information, online expert collaboration, etc. 9.3 Commercial exploitation of R&D results • The integration of foresighting methods and tools will provide future opportunities for improving consulting services; enhance existing capabilities in technology watch, horizon scanning and foresight. • Higher education & professional training, including gaming and exercises. • Higher education & professional training: Exploitation of all “critical infrastructure and supply chain protection” outcomes of FOCUS project at undergraduate and Executive MBA supply chain courses at HEC University of Lausanne. 9.4 Exploitation of results through EU policies and (social) innovation • Integrate FOCUS foresighting methodologies and generated foreground into future research proposals and projects: roadmap for scenario-based security research planning; related themes of topics; lists of experts; etc. • Briefing of policymakers and other stakeholders regarding EU security research planning for Horizon 2020 and beyond – via direct contact with policymaker circles: roadmap for scenario-based security research planning; related themes of topics; lists of experts; etc. • Public administration: long-term consultancy contracts with Austrian federal government bodies. • FOCUS methodology, with the two-year practical and academic experience: introducing the foresight methodologies of FOCUS-project to a select groups of experts at the World Customs Organisation (WCO). List of Websites: http://www.focusproject.eu FOCUS Coordinator: Prof. Dr. Alexander Siedschlag Sigmund Freud Private University Vienna CEUSS | Center for European Security Studies Schnirchgasse 9a A-1030 Vienna AUSTRIA Phone: +43 (0) 1 798 62 90 50 Fax: +43 (0) 1 798 62 90 52 E-mail: siedschlag@european-security.info Website: http://www.european-security.info

2014-08-01 09:36:46 en 2832088 Sigmund Freud Privatuniversitat Wien GmbH

AT

en 3518525 en 98622 261633 FOCUS de,en,es,fr,it,pl 861 FP7-SECURITY http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/financing/fundings/research-for-security/index_en.htm 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 en 12911 SEC-2010.6.3-2 10357 SEC-6.3 10354 SEC-6 11558 SEC 861 FP7-SECURITY 846 FP7-COOPERATION 1401 EC 837 FP7 de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEC de,en,es,fr,it,pl 147119 Europe needs to broaden its definition of external security threats, and address them in a unified way. An EU project has helped to improve Europe's preparedness for traditional and non-traditional threats. 2014-08-06 15:48:41 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en en,any /docs/results/images/2014-08/201407291234.jpg http://www.focusproject.eu Austria AT 175540776 en report en sesam de,en,es,fr,it,pl sesam en en 40997 Motivation In a rescue situation it is essential to know the position of all human entities. Above all this is a safety issue, but also the modelling and visualization of human perception data depends on accurate position information. Knowing ones position allows efficient coo...

Motivation In a rescue situation it is essential to know the position of all human entities. Above all this is a safety issue, but also the modelling and visualization of human perception data depends on accurate position information. Knowing ones position allows efficient coordination of the teams. It also makes sharing of spatial information possible. Sharing of the spatial information is seen as a key factor when modelling a common model presence between humans and robots. Unlike robots the humans only rarely know their accurate position. Human beings use mostly eyes for localization, which is based on recognition of an object and estimation of the distance to the object. If the sight is reduced by darkness, smoke, etc. the accuracy of the localization suffers. Also, localization is always relative in nature. Only in situations when human can identify a known object, like corridor crossing or stairway, he can know his accurate position relative to that object. Thus the transfer of the position information to another person or for a computer system can be difficult. A Personal Navigation System was developed to solve these problems. In this system localization is based on dead reckoning and laser scan matching. These methods are widely used in mobile robotics, but less common in human localization. Short Description of PeNa System: The Personal Navigation system (PeNa) is a system for localizing a human in indoors. In rescue situation infrastructure for localization cannot be assumed. Thus, the system is designed to be a stand-alone localization system. The localization is based on dead reckoning and map-based localization. Dead reckoning includes step measurements (pedometer), magnetic sensors (compass) and inertial measurements (gyro and accelerometers). The laser range finder is used for mapping and position refinement, which is done by laser odometry and map matching. The PeNa hardware includes: batteries, power conversions, Stride Length Measurement Unit (SiLMU), a fiber optic gyro, a compass, SICK laser scanner and a laptop. All the hardware is mounted in a backpack. The laptop is installed in the front to serve also as a display for user interface. Results: The existing PeNa hardware is a demonstrational prototype that is able to localize human in indoors with bounded error. The fact that PeNa does that by using no predefined infrastructure makes it unique in relation to previous work. The system is used to incorporate human into a telematic system of hybrid entities. In this sense the PeNa is unique. It allows the operator to control human as if the human would be teleoperated robot. Future Work and application potential: The personal navigation has application potential as is. The localization of human allows building applications such as PeLoTe. It also allows the location-based services, which is hot topic at the time being. Furthermore, the ever-growing intelligence in the living environments has a clear need for new type of interfacing. As seen in the PeLoTe the interfacing through location and conceptualisation is efficient. The sharing of information, robot programming and information visualization becomes easy and the conceptualisation allows the use of natural language in commanding entities. The environment conceptualisation is made in two parts: - A part, where PeNa is used for automatic (or semiautomatic) mapping of the environment, and - Another part where the located objects in the environment are conceptualised using human cognition. The (semi-) automatic mapping is done through sensor fusion. PeNa will be upgraded with PMD or similar 3D perception sensors to extract objects in the environment. Human conceptualises these objects. The conceptualisation includes giving name, properties and functions (that can be anything). The outcome is a virtual description of the real environment with large amount of objects. This virtual environment can be used as interface to service robots, home automation systems, control of surveillance equipment, etc. In practice this kind of world allows the control of any device that is part of the system (static, dynamic) and the applications variety is unlimited.

2006-08-01 00:00:00 en 2807804 HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

FI http://www.automation.hut.fi/

Finland FI 256543272 en 3498557 en 64582 IST-2001-38873 PELOTE de,en,es,fr,it 641 FP5-IST http://cordis.europa.eu/ist/home.html 624 FP5 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ELM de,en,es,fr,it,pl IPS de,en,es,fr,it,pl LEG de,en,es,fr,it,pl POL en 6981 2002-6.2.2 6978 2002-6 641 FP5-IST 624 FP5 de,en,es,fr,it,pl LIF de,en,es,fr,it,pl IPS de,en,es,fr,it,pl INF de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR de,en,es,fr,it,pl ITT de,en,es,fr,it 83451 An innovative personal navigation system for indoors offers precise localisation of two kinds of entities, physically mobile units and humans. 2007-10-15 17:42:34 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ittele en brief en en,any /docs/results/images/2007-10/40997.jpg en report en furtherResearchOrDevelopmentSupport en id14 en eTip de,en,es,fr,it,pl eTip en en 41658 CAMELS uses a novel approach, termed Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) that combines both views and adds a few additional elements. An additional innovation is that CAMELS produces consistent uncertainty bounds on carbon fluxes that are essential for policy purpose...

CAMELS uses a novel approach, termed Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) that combines both views and adds a few additional elements. An additional innovation is that CAMELS produces consistent uncertainty bounds on carbon fluxes that are essential for policy purposes. It starts from flux measurements at the stand scale, which are used to improve and best parameterise a number of ecosystem models. The exercise also yields uncertainty bounds for ecosystem model parameters, and, by using data from all major biomes, a notion of the representativeness of the models and parameterisations. The assumption used in CAMELS is that the best way to spatially extrapolate the results from the flux measurements is not through fluxes, but through parameter values that describe the underlying processes. Hence, the parameter values optimised from the site data are used as a priori values in a global carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). CAMELS has so far produced one prototype CCDAS based on the ecosystem model BETHY: in a first data assimilation step, BETHY takes satellite-observed values of "greenness" to optimise parameters related to water status, phenology, and total plant cover. Next, the adjoint (the first derivative of the code with respect to model parameters) of the physiological and energy balance part of BETHY coupled with the adjoint of the atmospheric transport model TM2 is used to optimise parameter values of BETHY. This is done by assimilation of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. Uncertainties of optimised model parameters can be derived from the Hessian (the second derivative) of the BETHY code with respect to the parameters. By using the Hessian of the BETHY code with respect to the parameters, uncertainties of optimised model parameters can also be derived. These uncertainties, that reflect both the prior information (in a Bayesian context), as well as the information from the large-scale inversion, can finally be translated into uncertainty bounds for CO2 fluxes and any other model diagnostic. Both the adjoint and Hessian codes are generated automatically using the compiler tool TAF, developed by FastOpt. Automatic generation ensures that improvements of BETHY can be used in the assimilation scheme without delay.

2006-08-01 00:00:00 en 2808273 MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V., MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE OF BIOCHEMISTRY

DE http://www.ice.mpg.de

Germany DE 221940264 en 3499026 en 69526 EVK2-CT-2002-00151 CAMELS de,en,es,fr,it 643 FP5-EESD http://cordis.europa.eu/eesd/home.html 624 FP5 de,en,es,fr,it,pl ECO de,en,es,fr,it,pl OET de,en,es,fr,it,pl ENV de,en,es,fr,it,pl SCI de,en,es,fr,it,pl SOC de,en,es,fr,it,pl LEG de,en,es,fr,it,pl RSE de,en,es,fr,it,pl POL en 6232 1.1.4.-2. 643 FP5-EESD 624 FP5 de,en,es,fr,it,pl SEA de,en,es,fr,it,pl MET de,en,es,fr,it,pl ENV de,en,es,fr,it,pl FOR en report en informationExchangeTraining en eTip de,en,es,fr,it,pl eTip