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RADAR-based ASH monitoring and foreCASTing by integrating of remote sensing techniques and volcanic plume models

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Looking at volcanic ash clouds helps predict hazards

Proper measurement of volcanic ash cloud parameters is essential to forecasting potential hazards. Use of microwave radiometry enabled EU-funded scientists to extract accurate starting data for predictive models.

Climate Change and Environment icon Climate Change and Environment

Volcanoes create ash clouds that travel long distances and can have detrimental effects on air travel and on people and infrastructures in their paths. Reliable ash observation and forecasting are critical for effective and efficient response to volcanic events and ash cloud diffusion. Synergistic use of land-based radar and satellite observations and numerical modelling within the scope of the EU-funded project RASHCAST enabled extraction of ash cloud parameters with high spatial and temporal accuracy. The outcomes will lead to substantial improvement in current monitoring and prediction capabilities. Team members employed the volcanic plume model Active Tracer High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM) together with the radiative transfer model Satellite Data Simulator Unit (SDSU) to simulate the meso-scale behaviour of ash clouds. Microwave radar-based near-real-time observations of ash cloud features provided inputs for initialisation of the simulation sequences. Scientists used real data from the Grímsvötn eruption in May 2011 in the Icelandic subglacial volcanic region for development. The use of microwave instrumentation in the current project had the important benefit of facilitating ash estimates inside the volcanic plume rather than at its edges as is commonly the case. Scientists were able to estimate the main characteristics of ash clouds, including ash particle shape and size distribution within the plume, as well as ash cloud content and thickness with high spatial and temporal resolution. An algorithm enabled a quantitative estimation of columnar ash concentration from a satellite measurement of plume brightness temperature. Validation will be accomplished in continued work as appropriate data become available. RASHCAST made a significant improvement to capabilities by exploiting ground and satellite measurements in the microwave frequency range to extract accurate ash cloud information inside the plume. Numerical models using real data input from these observations as initialisation of simulations will provide much more accurate predictions of ash cloud impact and thus more effective and timely response.

Keywords

Volcano, ash cloud, land-based radar, satellite observation, microwave, brightness temperature, columnar ash concentration

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