Brighter outlook for flood forecasting

A simulation model is being developed that, when combined with good quality weather forecast data, can forecast floods in Europe's large drainage basins. When integrated with satellite images, it can also assist in the management of a flood crisis and will help mould European ...

A simulation model is being developed that, when combined with good quality weather forecast data, can forecast floods in Europe's large drainage basins. When integrated with satellite images, it can also assist in the management of a flood crisis and will help mould European land-use policies.

Background

In recent years Europe has witnessed some extreme floods. In January 1995, heavy rainfall caused extensive flooding along the River Meuse. The threat was so severe that the Netherlands government evacuated 75,000 people from the region. Two years later, in July 1997, the River Oder in Poland, the Czech Republic and the former East-German state of Brandenburg reached an all-time high. Current flood modelling tools can help predict the peak of a river in flood, but more sophisticated tools are required to forecast and manage floods, and to help Europe to develop land-use policies that could reduce their occurrence.

Description, impact and results

LISFLOOD is a computer-based model that uses physical parameters such as topography, precipitation amounts, land use and soil type to simulate flooding in some of Europe's largest drainage basins. When complete, its potential applications are:

Flood forecasting: weather data from national weather services can be input into LISFLOOD. The risk of flooding in specific areas can then be forecast, although the accuracy of the flood forecast depends on that of the weather data. Flood pre-warnings up to two weeks in advance will enable local and national authorities to pre-empt a potential flood crisis. LISFLOOD will also be coupled with historic weather forecast data and used to 'post-predict' both the Meuse and Oder flooding to investigate how early these floods could have been forecast.

Flood damage assessment: data on a flood's extent will be quickly and accurately obtained from satellite images and combined with information on its duration and land-use data from the CORINE(1) land-cover database. Again this will help authorities to respond to flood damage in the most effective way possible.

An historic analysis tool: by examining past floods in detail it may be possible to identify their causes and use the information to develop anti-flood land-use policies, for example by retaining forestry areas to prevent local flooding and soil erosion.
LISFLOOD could prove to be an extremely valuable tool for reducing the human suffering and financial costs associated with large-scale floods in Europe.

Working partnerships

As part of its "Natural Hazards" project, the Agriculture and Regional Information Systems Unit (ARIS) at the JRC (European Commission's Joint Research Centre) Space Applications Institute (SAI), is developing the flood simulation model, LISFLOOD. The project is being funded within the EC's Fifth Framework Programme. The researchers are working closely with European experts, including scientists at the Universities of Reading and Bristol in the UK, and the Free University of Amsterdam and Utrecht University in the Netherlands. Water authorities from several European countries, including Poland and the Czech Republic, are also involved.

COoRdination of INformation on the Environment - each Member State has developed a set of databanks based on unified methodology; the information is stored and made available through GIS (Geographical Information System) applications.