Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS

Sectoral economic analysis and forecasts for Europe in 1999

The European Commission has published an open invitation to tender for a study on sectoral economic analysis and forecasts for Europe in 1999.

The study is intended to monitor the evolution of economic activity in Europe and to evaluate the impact of different common policies and their adaptation to future medium-term trends. The Commission wishes to have a global and sectoral picture of the most probable scenario for the evolution of the European economy up to 1999.

Under the terms of the study, both the global and macroeconomic trends, as well as the main future economic, technological and organizational trends, should be analysed for each Member State and for the European Union as a whole. Special attention should be paid to the relationships between sectoral and global forecasts, showing how the microeconomic trends determine the macroeconomic environment.

The study will comprise the following parts:

- Part I - Global framework.
In order to give a general picture of the framework in which such sectoral forecasts are framed, the study should start with an analysis of the main medium-term trends in the international context including:
. Economic activity;
. Structural factors affecting competitiveness;
. Structure of labour markets.

- Part II - Sectoral forecasts.
The Commission needs quantitative sectoral forecasts on sectors at the NACE 2-digit, covering global economic activity in each Member State and in the EU as a whole. For each sector at the NACE 2-digit, as well as sub-sectors in the annex to the terms of reference, the trends of the following variables must be studied:
. Production;
. Gross value added;
. Employment;
. Apparent labour productivity;
. Apparent consumption and external trade.

Where possible, a comparison with the situation in other relevant countries or geographical areas (USA, Japan, EFTA, NICs, etc.) would be useful. Sectoral and sub-sectoral analyses must be linked with global forecasts in order to achieve coherent conclusions and diagnoses;

- Part III - Complementary issues:

. III.1. Energy.
A horizontal section should regard energy as an important element of the economy as a whole. The interaction between energy and the economy (growth, employment, investment) should be addressed. Special attention should be paid to the relationship between energy and development, structural change and the role of the European Community. More particularly, investment flows within the whole energy sector should be analysed in order to assess structural changes taking place;

. III.2. Environment.
For each sector, the qualitative and quantitative empirical relationships between production and pollution should be established. Such relationships should be developed on the basis of both the recent past and the foreseeable future;

. III.3 Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).
The study should analyse medium trends in sectors such as:
. The components industry;
. Informatics and telecommunications equipment;
. Consumer electronics and software;
. Informatics services industries.

It should take into account the relationship between the ICT sector and the rest of the economy. Special attention should be paid to the impact of ICT industries on employment and the structure of the labour force. The study should present a prospective view of the possibilities of job creation (both direct and indirect) in ICT.


Economic Aspects
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