Descrizione del progetto
Un innovativo sistema di previsione per gli eventi del Niño di Benguela
Il Niño di Benguela è un evento estremo costituito dall’entrata sporadica di acqua calda torbida e povera di sostanze nutritive nel sistema di risalita delle acque profonde di Benguela, in Angola, dalla costa africana sud-occidentale, un processo che influenza il ricco ecosistema marino e l’economia locale. È urgentemente necessario un sistema di prevedibilità affidabile. Gli studi recenti hanno rivelato il potenziale di previsione di questi eventi. Il progetto BENGUP, finanziato dall’UE, svilupperà le prime previsioni dell’ecosistema marino basate sul clima nella regione. Esso valuterà le capacità dei modelli di previsione e le relative incertezze in merito alle principali forze trainanti di variabilità interannuale negli oceani avvalendosi dei sistemi dinamici esistenti allo scopo di sviluppare un nuovo sistema di previsione in grado di rilevare la prevedibilità degli eventi estremi, nonché il loro impatto sull’ecosistema marino.
Obiettivo
The Angola-Benguela Upwelling System located off the south-west African coasts sustains a very diversified marine ecosystem. This region undergoes the occasional manifestation of extreme interannual warm events known as Benguela Niño events that can devastate the ecosystem, deplete the fish stocks and therefore affect the economy of south-west African developing countries. To ensure the long-term sustainability of the living marine resources, there is an urgent need to provide reliable and useful seasonal predictions of the marine environment and ecosystems to local stakeholders and economic actors. Recently, studies of the applicant and the host institution have revealed the potential of prediction of those extreme Benguela events. The BENGUP project seeks to develop the first climate-based marine ecosystem predictions of these abrupt environmental events and outlooks of fish stock in this region. Model prediction skills and related uncertainties will be assessed for the key ocean drivers of interannual variability in the region using existing dynamical systems. Based on this knowledge, a new prediction system capturing the predictability of extreme events and their impact on the marine ecosystem will be developed. Given the strong socio-economic and ecological implications, the outputs of this action will not only be of high impact to the local communities and fisheries, but will be also of broad interest to a wide array of disciplines, including marine biologists, climate modellers, policymakers, and members of the informed public. Through the fellowship, I will transfer my knowledge in regional modelling of South-Eastern Atlantic Ocean variability to the host institutions while adding a new discipline (climate prediction) and cutting-edge statistical techniques to my expertise. This project will represent a huge step in my career as it will position me as a leader in the growing field of climate-based marine ecosystem predictions.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinatore
5020 Bergen
Norvegia