Objective Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Their economic and social consequences are a matter of enormous concern. Much of science has concentrated, until recently, on understanding the mean behavior of physical, biological or social systems and their "normal" variability. Extreme events, due to their rarity, have been hard to study and even harder to predict. We propose to develop methods for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. General tools will be developed to extract the distribution of these events from existing data sets. Models that are anchored in complex-systems concepts will be constructed to incorporate a priori knowledge about the phenomena and to reproduce the data-derived distribution of events. These models will then be used to predict the likelihood of extreme events in prescribed time intervals. The methodology will be applied to three sets of pr oblems: (i) natural disasters from the realms of hydrology, seismology, and geomorphology; (ii) socio-economic crises, including those associated with criminality, mass violence, and terrorism; and (iii) rapid, and possibly catastrophic, changes in the interaction between economic activity and climate variability. The proposing team brings together expertise in various branches of the theory of nonlinear and complex systems, as well as in the application areas envisaged. Most importantly, it has a tru ly interdisciplinary, problem-oriented outlook. The work plan has been designed to integrate the expertise across the team and to provide problem-specific, as well as general results that will considerately strengthen the European Research Area in its " tackling complexity in science." Fields of science natural sciencesearth and related environmental scienceshydrologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeologyseismologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disastersnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeologygeomorphologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) FP6-POLICIES - Policy support: Specific activities covering wider field of research under the Focusing and Integrating Community Research programme 2002-2006. Topic(s) NEST-2003-1 - Adventure activities Call for proposal FP6-2003-NEST-PATH See other projects for this call Funding Scheme STREP - Specific Targeted Research Project Coordinator ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE EU contribution No data Address 45 Rue D'Ulm PARIS France See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data Participants (15) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all CENTRE D'ETUDES DE POPULATIONS, DE PAUVRETE ET DE POLITIQUES, SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES Luxembourg EU contribution No data Address Rue Emile Mark 44, B.P.48 DIFFERDANGE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE France EU contribution No data Address 3, Rue Michel-Ange PARIS See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data COMMISSARIAT À L'ÉNERGIE ATOMIQUE France EU contribution No data Address 31/33 rue de la Fédération PARIS See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE Italy EU contribution No data Address P.le Aldo Moro 7 ROMA See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS France EU contribution No data Address Place Jussieu 4 PARIS See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INSTITUT ROYAL METEOROLOGIQUE DE BELGIQUE Belgium EU contribution No data Address Avenue Circulaire, 3 BRUSSELS See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INSTITUTE OF GEODYNAMICS OF THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY Romania EU contribution No data Address 19-21 J.L.Calderon Str BUCHAREST See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Russia EU contribution No data Address Warshavskoye sh. 79, bldg. 2 MOSCOW See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data KING'S COLLEGE LONDON United Kingdom EU contribution No data Address Strand LONDON See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data SOCIETE DE MATHEMATIQUES APPLIQUEES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES France EU contribution No data Address 20 rue Rosenwald PARIS See on map Total cost No data UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA "LA SAPIENZA" Italy EU contribution No data Address Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 ROMA See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO Italy EU contribution No data Address Via Verdi 8 TORINO See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG Germany EU contribution No data Address Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1 HAMBURG See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM Germany EU contribution No data Address Am Neuen Palais 10 POTSDAM See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE Belgium EU contribution No data Address Place du 20 Août, 7 LIEGE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data