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Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Current Century

Project description

DEENESFRITPL

New more accurate models of how carbon affects climate change

Climate change feedback is important for understanding global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of climate forcing. It therefore plays an important part in determining climate sensitivity and future climate state. The EU-funded CCiCC project aims to reduce uncertainty in the quantitative understanding of carbon-climate interactions and feedbacks. Scientists will quantify key processes regulating the coupled carbon-climate system, and use observational constraints to provide long-term projections of the climate in response to anthropogenic emissions. The project will also deliver policy recommendations on carbon dioxide emission pathways. CCiCC analyses and data will help experts better assess how carbon dioxide emissions affect climate change.

Objective

4C addresses the crucial knowledge gap in the climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions, by reducing uncertainty in our quantitative understanding of carbon-climate interactions and feedbacks. This will be achieved through innovative integration of models and observations, providing new constraints on modelled carbon-climate interactions and climate projections, and supporting IPCC assessments and policy objectives. To meet this objective, 4C will (a) provide a step change in our ability to quantify the key processes regulating the coupled carbon-climate system, (b) use observational constraints and improved processes understanding to provide multi-model near-term predictions and long-term projections of the climate in response to anthropogenic emissions, and (c) deliver policy-relevant carbon dioxide emission pathways consistent with the UNFCCC Paris Agreement (PA) goals.
To achieve its goals, 4C will develop and use: state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) including biogeochemical processes not included in previous IPCC reports; novel observations to constrain the contemporary carbon cycle and its natural variability; ESM-based decadal predictions including carbon-climate feedbacks and novel initialisation methods; novel emergent constraints and weighting methods to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate projections; and novel climate scenarios following adaptive CO2 emission pathways.
4C will support two central elements of the PA. First, the PA global stocktakes, by providing policy-relevant predictions of atmospheric CO2 and climate in response to the national determined contributions. Second, the PA ambitions to keep global warming well below 2°C, by providing robust estimates of the remaining carbon budgets and available pathways. 4C will bring together leading European groups on climate modelling and on carbon cycle research, uniquely securing Europe’s leadership in actionable science needed for the IPCC assessments.

Fields of science

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Call for proposal

H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020

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Sub call

H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2

Funding Scheme

RIA - Research and Innovation action

Coordinator

THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Net EU contribution
€ 1 216 778,75
Address
THE QUEEN'S DRIVE NORTHCOTE HOUSE
EX4 4QJ Exeter
United Kingdom

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Region
South West (England) Devon Devon CC
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 1 216 778,75

Participants (12)

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Last update: 1 February 2024

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Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/821003

European Union, 2024