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Fundamental studies on the predictability of the atmosphere and climate

Objective

The principal objectives of the project are to analyze the mechanisms at the basis of Global Change in the light of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems theory; to assess the existence of fundamental limitations in the possibility to predict the future evolution of the atmosphere and climate, and to develop optimal prediction strategies for highly unstable dynamical systems.

Application of the techniques of dynamical reconstruction of complex systems from time series data in order to deduce error growth exponents (Lyapounov exponents) associated with key atmospheric phenomena.
Study of relations between predictability and time and spatial scale.
Study of possibilities for predictions in a statistical sense beyond the limits of deterministic predictions (as given by inverse Lyapounov exponent) for systems of relevance for atmospheric dynamics and climate.
Development of methods to detect abrupt transitions.
Study of simplified ecosystem models, viewed in terms of nonlinear dynamics, and giving rise to bifurcations and multiple states in a fluctuating environment.
Studies will consist of parallel analytical and numerical work on simplified mathematical models of the relevant phenomena, including fully developed turbulence and quasi-geostrophic flow.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

Université Libre de Bruxelles
Address
Boulevard Du Triomphe
1050 Bruxelles
Belgium

Participants (3)

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR)
Italy
Address
101,Via Gobetti 101
40129 Bologna
International Union of Biological Sciences
France
Address
51 Boulevard De Montmorency
75016 Paris
UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA TOR VERGATA
Italy
Address
Via Della Ricerca Scientifica, 1 Edificio Sogene
00133 Roma