Objective To develop our understanding of the factors that control thelength and intensity of storm tracks in general and the NorthAtlantic storm track in particular, and to suggest the likelyrange of impacts of increased greenhouse gases on the dynamics ofthe storm track.A method for objective identification of cyclones will bedeveloped to yield information about the location, the life time,and the intensity of the individual cyclones from atmosphericcirculation data. This information leads to the distribution ofcyclone activity, period lengths, recurrence times, andintensity.The cyclone trajectories, positions and intensity,will be subjected to further analysis based on nonlineartechniques and Lagrangian diagnostics. Eddy-mean flow diagnostictools are applied to the comprehensive and the idealized datasets to interpret the underlying physical mechanisms, theirdifferences and to distinguish the anthropogenic and naturalforcing on storm track variability.The physical interpretation may necessitate further experimentsto isolate mechanisms that transport climate signals over largedistances, such as from the Tropical Pacific to the NortheastAtlantic/European sector. A reduced GCM (SGCM) of the generalcirculation model ECHAM will be used for idealized experiments.The SGCM-experiments are carried out on an aqua-planet;greenhouse gas forcing is modified during these runs (1 xCO2, 2 x CO2). These experiments will be completedby simulations of point vortex models on periodic domain and onthe sphere.The nonlinear dynamics of storm-track variability will be studiedas well by simplified nonlinear modelling based on point-vortexsystems and turbulence simulations. Using the outputs of theabove models and real atmospheric data, information is derived ofthe large scale dynamics based on probability measures instate-space applying (a) phase-space reconstructions based on newtechniques aimed at reducing noise level and making optimal useof information. Subsequently, (b) dimension and entropyestimates of time series and Lagrangian cyclone trajectories canbe deduced to obtain (c) some nonlinear systems analysisdiagnostics including tests to distinguish random fromdeterministic signals. Fields of science natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyatmospheric circulation Programme(s) FP3-ENV 1C - Specific research and technological development programme (EEC) in the field of the environment, 1990-1994 Topic(s) 0102 - Anthropogenic climate change Call for proposal Data not available Funding Scheme CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Coordinator UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG EU contribution No data Address Bundesstrasse 55 20146 HAMBURG Germany See on map Total cost No data Participants (2) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) Italy EU contribution No data Address Corso Fiume 4 10133 Torino See on map Total cost No data UNIVERSITY OF READING United Kingdom EU contribution No data Address Earley Gate 2, Whiteknights, Palmer Building RG6 2AU READING / SILCHESTER See on map Total cost No data