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CONFLICT LANDSCAPES & LIFE CYCLES: EXPLORING & PREDICTING AFRICAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE

CONFLICT LANDSCAPES & LIFE CYCLES: EXPLORING & PREDICTING AFRICAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE

Objective

The central aim of this work is to explain what causes the various types of political violence found within and across African states. In contrast to the widespread view that conflict is confined to a few crisis prone states, new evidence suggests that almost all states are sites of substantial, widespread political insecurity (Raleigh et al. 2010). Civil war accounts for 35% of the conflict across African states; the remaining 65% is composed of communal and political militia violence, rioting, protests and violence against non-combatants outside of a war context. These forms of ‘invisible’ violence often involve state collusion and present a widespread risk to civilians. This proposal takes a holistic approach, looking at all forms of political violence and seeking to explain them within a novel theoretical framework emphasizing two stages of onset indicators, and employing the latest available disaggregated data methodologies for spatial and temporal dynamics. Further, it introduces spatial and scaled approaches, which are the most rigorous and well suited to a comprehensive conflict study, as risks, triggers and dynamics are spatially inscribed and hierarchical. The theoretical contribution of this work is an examination of how insurgency and opposition violence are spatial and political processes that are shaped by the political, economic and social geographies of states. The empirical contributions include an extension of the most comprehensive data on political events (ACLED) and a merging of these disaggregated data with information on local level political, economic, social and environmental conditions throughout Africa. Methodologically, this project is the first to test spatial and temporal forecasting methods on real-time conflict hotspots. Finally, the conclusions of this work have applicability to development agencies, governing bodies and international regimes concerned with the growing threat emanating from failed and failing states.
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Principal Investigator

Clionadh Raleigh (Prof.)

Host institution

THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

Address

Sussex House Falmer
Bn1 9rh Brighton

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 1 258 109,17

Principal Investigator

Clionadh Raleigh (Prof.)

Administrative Contact

Julian Golland (Mr.)

Beneficiaries (2)

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THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 1 258 109,17

THE PROVOST, FELLOWS, FOUNDATION SCHOLARS & THE OTHER MEMBERS OF BOARD OF THE COLLEGE OF THE HOLY & UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN

Ireland

EU Contribution

€ 158 620,83

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 283755

Status

Closed project

  • Start date

    1 May 2012

  • End date

    30 June 2017

Funded under:

FP7-IDEAS-ERC

  • Overall budget:

    € 1 416 730

  • EU contribution

    € 1 416 730

Hosted by:

THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

United Kingdom