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Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy

Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy

Objective

The science of complex systems distinguishes linear from non-linear dynamics. Simpler systems can often be satisfactory described by linear models, but complex systems require non-linear models that can capture more of the characteristics of such systems, such as thresholds, feedback loops, avalanche effects, and irreversibility. Linear systems can be validated by aligning models to the past and using the model to predict the future. Non-linear systems, however, are often time-asymmetric - they can be explained with the wisdom of hindsight, but are not always predictable. For example, systems may respond sharply to minor perturbations, and the quality of this response is a measure of the system resilience. In practice, non-linear dynamics are significant both at the micro-scale of small history and at the macro-scale of deep time. The brilliant young scientist, for example, may experience a series of epiphanies that change his/her understanding and behaviour in an unpredictable and irreversible way. The scientific community as a whole may experience an innovation-cascade that has a similar effect on a much larger scale.
Current models of climate change and carbon emission assume the immediate past is a reasonable guide to the future. They struggle to represent the complex causal structures and time-asymmetries of many socio-natural systems. COMPLEX will integrate the quasi-classic models of meso-scale processes with our best understanding of fine-grained space-time patterns and the system-flips that are likely to occur in the long interval between now and 2050. We believe the sub-national region is the key point of entry for studying climate change and its cause-effect interrelations. It is small enough to be sensitive to local factors, large enough to interact with supra-national agencies and stable enough to be historically and culturally distinctive. In addition to undertaking case studies in Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Spain and Italy, We will develop a suite of modelling tools and decision-support systems to inform national and supra-national policy and support communities across Europe working to make the transition to a low-carbon economy.
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Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE

Address

Kings Gate
Ne1 7ru Newcastle Upon Tyne

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 489 794

Administrative Contact

Nicola Dolman (Mrs.)

Participants (16)

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UNIVERSITEIT TWENTE

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 1 134 351

SIGTUNASTIFTELSEN

Sweden

EU Contribution

€ 281 064

SVERIGES LANTBRUKSUNIVERSITET

Sweden

EU Contribution

€ 604 148

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 150 222

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS

France

EU Contribution

€ 240 532

SINTEF ENERGI AS

Norway

EU Contribution

€ 294 075

INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE

Austria

EU Contribution

€ 231 360

OBSERVATORIO PARA UNA CULTURA DEL TERRITORIO ASOCIACION

Spain

EU Contribution

€ 292 650

STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET

Sweden

EU Contribution

€ 297 920

Scientific foundation Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre

Russia

EU Contribution

€ 165 600

NEDERLANDSE ORGANISATIE VOOR TOEGEPAST NATUURWETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK TNO

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 739 545

INSTITUT NATIONAL DE RECHERCHE EN SCIENCES ET TECHNOLOGIES POUR L'ENVIRONNEMENT ET L'AGRICULTURE

France

EU Contribution

€ 150 293

ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE

France

EU Contribution

€ 10 453

THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 161 111

ASOCIACION BC3 BASQUE CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE - KLIMA ALDAKETA IKERGAI

Spain

EU Contribution

€ 145 808

MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EV

Germany

EU Contribution

€ 39 680

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 308601

Status

Closed project

  • Start date

    1 October 2012

  • End date

    30 September 2016

Funded under:

FP7-ENVIRONMENT

  • Overall budget:

    € 6 982 677,07

  • EU contribution

    € 5 428 606

Coordinated by:

UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE

United Kingdom