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Rethinking uncertainty: A problem-based approach

Rethinking uncertainty: A problem-based approach

Objective

The overarching aim of this research project is to improve our understanding of uncertainty, the robustness of its formal modelling and its inter-sectoral communication. Decision-making in the face of the continuing financial crisis and climate change policy-making are two problems of high socio-economic impact in which our overall understanding of uncertainty plays an unquestionably decisive role.

This interdisciplinary project sets out to contribute to such pressing issues by addressing a set of key epistemological questions that arise in the construction of formal models of rational decision-making under uncertainty. By doing so it will throw new light on one of the most fundamental problems in the multifaceted field of uncertain reasoning: how to identify an efficient trade-off between foundational robustness and expressive power in the quantification of uncertainty.

The expected results will bring foundational and methodological clarity as well as formal advance. The former will give rise to a novel framework in which a plurality of models of uncertain reasoning are developed in continuity with their intended applications in individual, social and institutional decision-making. As to formal advance, it is hoped that the new framework will lead to principled extensions of probabilistic measures of uncertainty and the maximisation of expected utility. Logic, decision theory and formal epistemology will provide the methods and techniques of investigation. The expected results will impact directly on economic theory, the foundations of probability and statistical inference, and artificial intelligence.

The fulfilment of the research and training goals of the project will greatly benefit from the engagement with professionals and policy groups. This, in turn, is expected to add significantly to the project's impact outside the academia.
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Coordinator

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE

Address

Houghton Street 1
Wc2a 2ae London

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 221 606,40

Administrative Contact

Richard Bradley (Prof.)

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 327630

Status

Closed project

  • Start date

    2 September 2013

  • End date

    1 September 2015

Funded under:

FP7-PEOPLE

  • Overall budget:

    € 221 606,40

  • EU contribution

    € 221 606,40

Coordinated by:

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE

United Kingdom

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