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Identifying the Location and Extent of Populations Trapped by Environmental Change in the Mekong Delta: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Identifying the Location and Extent of Populations Trapped by Environmental Change in the Mekong Delta: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Objective

The UK Foresight Migration and Global Environmental Change Project recently concluded that migration is likely to be increasingly influenced by environmental change in the future through the impact of climate change on economic, social and political drivers. However, the range and complexity of the interactions between these drivers means that it will rarely be possible to distinguish individuals for whom environmental factors are the sole driver. In parallel, within debates about climate change adaptation there has been an emerging trend to position migration as an adaptation strategy to environmental shocks and stresses. However, migration is expensive, requiring a number of assets/capitals. This can result in some populations who experience the impacts of environmental change seeing a reduction in the very capital required to enable a move. Environmental change is therefore equally likely to make migration less possible as more probable. In the decades ahead, millions of people are thus likely to be unable to move away from locations in which they are extremely vulnerable to environmental change. To the international community, this ‘trapped’ population is likely to represent just as important a policy concern as those who do migrate. In determining the extent and location of these populations the non-ubiquity of migration within a community needs to be accounted for in order to separate those people who want to migrate but are unable to do so from those who are unwilling to migrate and instead choose to cope with livelihood stresses in alternative ways. This distinction requires a contextually driven analysis of the decision to migrate or stay. Such a focus on the migration decision is suited to an agent-based modelling approach which takes into account an individual’s intention to migrate, the influence of migration and non-migration behaviour of others and their perceived ability to migrate within a decision mediated by household and community-level factors.
Leaflet | Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, Credit: EC-GISCO, © EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries

Coordinator

THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

Address

Sussex House Falmer
Bn1 9rh Brighton

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 291 852,60

Administrative Contact

Dominic Kniveton (Prof.)

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 329589

Status

Closed project

  • Start date

    1 October 2013

  • End date

    30 September 2016

Funded under:

FP7-PEOPLE

  • Overall budget:

    € 291 852,60

  • EU contribution

    € 291 852,60

Coordinated by:

THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

United Kingdom