Cel Computer models based on known physical laws are our primary tool for predicting climate change. Yet the state-of-the-art models exhibit a disturbingly wide range of predictions of future climate change, especially when examined at the regional scale, which has not decreased as the models have become more comprehensive. The reasons for this are not understood. This represents a basic challenge to our fundamental understanding of climate.The divergence of model projections is presumably related to systematic model errors in the large-scale fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum that control regional aspects of climate. That these errors stubbornly persist in spite of increases in the spatial resolution of the models suggests that they are associated with errors in the representation of unresolved processes, whose effects must be parameterised.Most attention in climate science has hitherto focused on the thermodynamic aspects of climate. Dynamical aspects, which involve the atmospheric circulation, have received much less attention. However regional climate, including persistent climate regimes and extremes, is strongly controlled by atmospheric circulation patterns, which exhibit chaotic variability and whose representation in climate models depends sensitively on parameterised processes. Moreover the dynamical aspects of model projections are much less robust than the thermodynamic ones. There are good reasons to believe that model bias, the divergence of model projections, and chaotic variability are somehow related, although the relationships are not well understood. This calls for studying them together.My proposed research will focus on this problem, addressing these three aspects of the atmospheric circulation response to climate change in parallel: (i) diagnosing the sources of model error; (ii) elucidating the relationship between model error and the spread in model projections; (iii) understanding the physical mechanisms of atmospheric variability. Dziedzina nauki natural sciencesphysical sciencesthermodynamicsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyatmospheric circulationnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changessocial scienceslaw Program(-y) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Temat(-y) ERC-AG-PE10 - ERC Advanced Grant - Earth system science Zaproszenie do składania wniosków ERC-2013-ADG Zobacz inne projekty w ramach tego zaproszenia System finansowania ERC-AG - ERC Advanced Grant Instytucja przyjmująca THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Wkład UE € 2 489 151,00 Adres WHITEKNIGHTS CAMPUS WHITEKNIGHTS HOUSE RG6 6AH Reading Zjednoczone Królestwo Zobacz na mapie Region South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Berkshire Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Kierownik naukowy Theodore Shepherd (Prof.) Kontakt administracyjny Olga Konopatskaya (Dr.) Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Koszt całkowity Brak danych Beneficjenci (1) Sortuj alfabetycznie Sortuj według wkładu UE Rozwiń wszystko Zwiń wszystko THE UNIVERSITY OF READING Zjednoczone Królestwo Wkład UE € 2 489 151,00 Adres WHITEKNIGHTS CAMPUS WHITEKNIGHTS HOUSE RG6 6AH Reading Zobacz na mapie Region South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Berkshire Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Kierownik naukowy Theodore Shepherd (Prof.) Kontakt administracyjny Olga Konopatskaya (Dr.) Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Koszt całkowity Brak danych