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Content archived on 2024-04-15

MARKET POTENTIAL OF SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL (SOFC) IN THE EC WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO REQUIRED DEVELOPMENT STATUS

Objective

TO STUDY THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR SOFC IN THE EEC. TO IDENTIFY ACHIEVABLE AIMS FOR SOFC R AND D WITH LIKELY TIMESCALE AND COMPARE WITH IDENTIFIED MARKET REQUIREMENTS. TO IDENTIFY STAGE OF SOFC DEVELOPMENT AT WHICH SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE WILL DEVELOP.

THE WORK WILL SEEK TO IDENTIFY THE POTENTIAL MARKET FOR SOFC WITHIN THE EEC, ONCE THEY HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED TO A COMMERCIALLY-AVAILABLE STATE. THE OVERALL MARKET WILL COVER POWER PLANT - UTILITIES, ON-SITE POWER GENERATION, CHP FOR SMALL (50KW - 1MW) MEDIUM (1MW - 50MW) AND LARGE (ABOVE 50MW); STORAGE SYSTEMS (ELECTROLYSER/FC); SHIPS; RAILWAY ENGINES; BUSES AND TRUCKS. COAL-REFORMING OR NATURAL GAS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY FUELS TO BE USED FOR POWER-PLANT; HYDROGEN, LNG OR METHANOL FOR TRANSPORT AND STORAGE SYSTEMS. HOW SOON, OR WHETHER, SOFC POWER PLANT MAKE SIGNIFICANT INROADS INTO THESE MARKETS DEPENDS ON THE COST, FUEL EFFICIENCY, SIZE, WEIGHT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ACCEPTABILITY OF THE DEVELOPED PLANT.

IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT A FORM OF MARKET SURVEY IT IS NECESSARY TO DEFINE AN ENVELOP OF DESIGN PARAMETER VALUES WITH WHICH TO TEST THE MARKET.

HOWEVER, THE TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOFC IS ONLY NOW STARTING, AND OUR INTENTION IS TO FIND WHAT COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS IN ANY NEW DEVICE WOULD GIVE IT A SIGNIFICANT MARKET SHARE. THIS CAN BE USED TO GIVE DIRECTION TO SOFC SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES TO AIM THESE VALUE OR BETTER, AND ALLOW SENSIBLE ESTIMATION OF DEVELOPMENT TIMESCALES TO A "COMMERCIAL" PRODUCT DEPENDING ON THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN REQUIRED AND CURRENTLY ATTAINABLE VALUES. ALSO, THE PARAMETERS FOR COMMERCIAL SUCCESS OF SOFC WILL BE COMPARED WITH WHAT WOULD BE ACHIEVED BY SOFC WITH FORESEEABLE TIMESCALES OF ABOUT 20 YEARS.

A RECENT SURVEY OF THE MARKET FOR PHOSPHORIC ACID FUEL CELLS (PAFC) HAS BEEN COMPLETED FOR THE CEC BY TESI (MILAN) AND JOHNSON MATTHEY (UK). THIS SETS OUT IN CONSIDERABLE DETAIL THE EXISTING POWER GENERATION SITUATION IN EACH OF THE EEC COUNTRIES BEFORE GOING ON TO DISCUSS FUEL-CELL-SPECIFIC TOPICS. THIS STUDY SHOULD FORM A FIRM BASIS FOR THE WORK ON SOFC AND THIS CURRENT MARKET SURVEY WILL CONCENTRATE ON EXTENDING THE PAFC STUDY IN SEVERAL ASPECTS :

I) APPLICATIONS OTHER THAN LARGE POWER GENERATION, AS DETAILED ABOVE
II) TIMESCALES BEYOND YEAR 2000, AS BEING MORE APPROPRIATE TO PRESENT SOFC DEVELOPMENT STATUS
III) CONSIDERATION OF MERITS OF SOFC .V. PAFC OR MOLTEN CARBONATE FUEL CELLS (MCFC) AS A NEW EFFICIENT TYPE TAKING OVER A, BY THEN, EXISTING MARKET; AS WELL AS SOFC .V. CONVENTIONAL GENERATION
IV) CARRYING OUT A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF FUEL PRICE PROJECTIONS IN THE LIGHT OF UNPREDICTABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN OIL PRICES THAT HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE PAFC STUDY.

FROM THEIR EXPERIENCE AS POWER PLANT MANUFACTURERS GEC, BBC AND D-S (DORNIER SYSTEM) HAVE EXTENSIVE INFORMATION IN THE AREAS UNDER CONSIDERATION, AND THIS INFORMATION WILL FORM A MAJOR INPUT TO THE STUDY. BRITISH GAS HAS AGREED TO PROVIDE INFORMATION.

WHEN COMPARING SOFC WITH "EXISTING" TECHNOLOGIES, IT MUST BE BORNE IN MIND WHAT SCOPE THERE IS FOR IMPROVING CONVENTIONAL SYSTEMS WITHIN THE TIMESCALE OF SOFC, AND SO MAKE A FAIR COMPARISON BETWEEN THEM AT THE EXPECTED DATE OF STARTING TO MARKET SOFC.

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Coordinator

GEC Alsthom Ltd
EU contribution
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