Periodic Reporting for period 3 - Objectivity (Making Scientific Inferences More Objective)
Reporting period: 2017-11-01 to 2019-04-30
The project rethinks the notion of objectivity in science and uses its insights in order to develop more objective inference tools in three important domains of scientific reasoning: statistical inference, causal inference (i.e. cause-effect relations), and explanatory inference (i.e. inferring the best explanation of an observed phenomenon). It contributes to a more reliable, robust and objective science that can be trusted by policy-makers and the general public alike.
We also axiomatize different probabilistic measures of causal strength and give recommendations for their use in scientific practice. Moreover, we examine different determinants of judgments of explanatory power, such as probability, causality and generalizability. Currently, we are conducting simulations of meta-analysis where different statistical paradigms are pitched against each other. We compare their performances under ideal circumstances, and in a more realistic setting where data and interpretation are biased in various ways.