Periodic Reporting for period 1 - DeReco (Feasibility Study on Decentralised Heat Recovery)
Reporting period: 2014-10-01 to 2015-02-28
Since WHR systems are independent of a particular heat source they address a wide range of applications.
The objective of this feasibility study was to analyze and evaluate the markets including their technical and commercial requirements and competing technologies, leading to an elaborated business plan showing best entry market in Europe. Based on interviews and discussions with associations, industry partners and experts from universities as well as an intensive literature and internet search EN3 has evaluated 7 target markets.
Internal Combustion (IC) Engines: Current forecasts assume a worldwide production of 237 million combustion engines in 2013. About 55 to 65% of the fuel’s energy in ICs is liberated as waste heat. EN3 identified stationary IC engines with focus on “Green CHPs” as the most promising entry market.
Industrial Waste Heat Recovery: Industrial waste heat is unused process energy released by dryers, kilns, furnaces, chemical reactors etc. The use of WHR systems could replace appr. 5 GW of conventional power plants in Germany.
Solid Biomass-To-Energy: Small scale solid biomass cogeneration plants can provide heat and electricity for the decentralized energy supply. According to the German Renewables Energy Agency there is a potential of 17 878 PJ of Energy in Europe, which may translate to as much as € 5.6 billion in yearly revenue.
Concentrated Solar Power Plants (CSP): According to the Swiss private bank Sarasin, an accumulated overall performance ratio 28 GW of Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plants (CSP) might be installed until 2020. This corresponds to a market volume of € 35 billion.
Geothermal Electricity Generation: According to the US consultancy Pike Research, a quite conservative assessment estimates an increase from currently 10.7 GW in 2011 to 14.3 GW by 2020 assuming conventional technology as available today. This corresponds to a total market volume of € 4.1 billion.
Results: Stationary IC market and especially Green CHPs show excellent conditions in all relevant areas to be considered to a successful market entry. It generates an attractive Return On Investment (ROI) for investors, especially if the compensation for electricity fed into the grid stays stable. The requirements in terms of size, weight and price are achievable by EN3 in a short term and allow using standard components. Hence, the time to market is short.
The study showed that there is a great market potential in the European markets, especially in Denmark, Italy, France and the UK. We assume that 15 % of the total 13 800 biogas plants in Europe could be retrofitted by WHR systems. It takes the first place in EN3’s market entry evaluation.
The company intends to collect the first market experience in its home market to secure a quick response to its customer and to optimize the technology. Therefore, EN3 plans a first small series of five pilot plants by the end of 2015. They will be part of the Horizon 2020 Phase 2 application. EN3 plans to access the German market in 2016 and will launch international activities by 2017.Focus areas will be the UK, France, Italy and Denmark