Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ExMeCy (Cyclone processes leading to extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region)
Reporting period: 2016-05-01 to 2018-04-30
Our results complement previous studies on the role of DC and the warm conveyor belts (WCB; fast ascending air parcels within the cyclones warm sector) to produce heavy rainfall. Most importantly, we quantified in a climatological framework the relative contribution of these processes and showed their relationship with cyclone rainfall. Especially for tropical-like cyclones, we concluded in a scenario that describes their lifecycle and finally, we addressed the issue of Mediterranean cyclones water budget, sources and precipitation efficiency.
In terms of research, four scientific publications have been submitted (three already published or accepted for publication) where the MSCA support through EXMECY project has been adequately acknowledged. The main scientific results of this action concern cyclones relationship to rainfall. Especially concerning deep convection (DC), an innovative approach has been followed, where lightning observations have been used for the climatological analysis of DC cells. Furthermore, cyclones have been analysed with respect to their dynamics and relationship with heavy rainfall and finally with respect their water budget. Main results are summarized as following:
In terms of development of implemented diagnostic tools into atmospheric models, two diagnostic modules have been developed and were implemented to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The tools have been/will be used for the scientific production of EXMECY:
- Diagnostic tool on extracting the potential vorticity budget of cyclones.
- Diagnostic tool on extracting the water budget terms.
A rich outreach activity portfolio has been also achieved including participation to Researcher's night, publications publicly accessed on the host institution forecasting webpage (www.meteo.gr; ~350.000 daily visitors), four international press interviews and youtube animation.
Overall, the research conducted within the framework of EXMECY is inline with the constant demand of forecasters and civil protection for credible prediction of rainfall extreme events at various timescales ranging from the short-term through seasonal and up to climate scale. In the long term, this project provides priorities for improving numerical models to simulate Mediterranean cyclones and their impacts on the environment. The new methodologies and tools will remain available for continuous exploitation from the Researcher but also from collaborators who may freely make use of them upon request. A solid four-publications record assures the visibility of EXMECY in subsequent years and certifies the quality of work achieved during this project.