Objetivo Recent uprisings across the world have accentuated claims that food insecurity is an important trigger of political violence. Is the Arab Spring representative of a general climate-conflict pattern, where severe droughts and other climate anomalies are a key driving force? Research to date has failed to conclude on a robust relationship but several notable theoretical and methodological shortcomings limit inference. CLIMSEC will address these research gaps. It asks: How does climate variability affect dynamics of political violence? This overarching research question will be addressed through the accomplishment of four key objectives: (1) Investigate how food security impacts of climate variability affect political violence; (2) Investigate how economic impacts of climate variability affect political violence; (3) Conduct short-term forecasts of political violence in response to food and economic shocks; and (4) Develop a comprehensive, testable theoretical model of security implications of climate variability. To achieve these objectives, CLIMSEC will advance the research frontier on theoretical as well as analytical accounts. Central in this endeavor is conceptual and empirical disaggregation. Instead of assuming states and calendar years as unitary and fixed entities, the project proposes causal processes that act at multiple temporal and spatial scales, involve various types of actors, and lead to very different forms of outcomes depending on the context. The empirical component will make innovative use of new geo - referenced data and methods; focus on a broad range of insecurity outcomes, including non-violent resistance; and combine rigorous statistical models with out-of-sample simulations and qualitative case studies for theorizing and validation of key findings. Based at PRIO, the project will be led by Research Professor Halvard Buhaug, a leading scholar on climate change and security with strong publication record and project management experience. Ámbito científico social scienceslawhuman rightshuman rights violationspolitical violencesocial sciencespolitical sciencespolitical transitionsarmed conflictssocial sciencespolitical sciencespolitical transitionsrevolutionsmedical and health scienceshealth sciencesnutritionnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programa(s) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Tema(s) ERC-CoG-2014 - ERC Consolidator Grant Convocatoria de propuestas ERC-2014-CoG Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoria Régimen de financiación ERC-COG - Consolidator Grant Institución de acogida INSTITUTT FOR FREDSFORSKNING Aportación neta de la UEn € 1 996 945,00 Dirección HAUSMANNS GATE 3 0186 Oslo Noruega Ver en el mapa Región Norge Oslo og Viken Oslo Tipo de actividad Research Organisations Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Participación en los programas de I+D de la UE Opens in new window Red de colaboración de HORIZON Opens in new window Coste total € 1 996 945,00 Beneficiarios (1) Ordenar alfabéticamente Ordenar por aportación neta de la UE Ampliar todo Contraer todo INSTITUTT FOR FREDSFORSKNING Noruega Aportación neta de la UEn € 1 996 945,00 Dirección HAUSMANNS GATE 3 0186 Oslo Ver en el mapa Región Norge Oslo og Viken Oslo Tipo de actividad Research Organisations Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Participación en los programas de I+D de la UE Opens in new window Red de colaboración de HORIZON Opens in new window Coste total € 1 996 945,00
