Cel The Land Biosphere is a critical component of the Earth System, linking to climate through multiple feedback processes. Understanding these feedback processes is a huge intellectual challenge. In part because of the pioneering work of the PI (Cox et al., 2000), many of the climate projections reported in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) now include climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However the latest Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to show a huge range in the projected responses of the land carbon cycle over the 21st century. This uncertainty threatens to undermine the value of these projections to inform climate policy. This project (ECCLES) is designed to produce significant reductions in the uncertainties associated with land-climate interactions, using the novel concept of Emergent Constraints - relationships between future projections and observable variations in the current Earth System that are common across the ensemble of ESMs. Emergent Constraints have many attractive features but chief amongst these is that they can make ensembles of ESMs more than the sum of the parts - allowing the full range of ESM projections to be used collectively, alongside key observations, to reduce uncertainties in the future climate. The project will deliver: (i) a theoretical foundation for Emergent Constraints; (ii) new datasets on the changing function of the land biosphere; (iii) Emergent Constraints on land-climate interactions based on observed temporal and spatial variations; (iv) a new generation of scientists expert in land-climate interactions and Emergent Constraints. ECCLES will benefit from the expertise and experience of the PI, which includes training as a theoretical physicist, an early career developing models of the land biosphere for ESMs, and a current career in a department of mathematics where he is at the forefront of efforts to develop and apply the concept of Emergent Constraints (Cox et al., 2013, Wenzel et al., 2016). Dziedzina nauki natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatology Słowa kluczowe Land-climate interactions and feedbacks Earth System Models Emergent Constraints Program(-y) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Temat(-y) ERC-2016-ADG - ERC Advanced Grant Zaproszenie do składania wniosków ERC-2016-ADG Zobacz inne projekty w ramach tego zaproszenia System finansowania ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant Instytucja przyjmująca THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER Wkład UE netto € 2 249 834,00 Adres THE QUEEN'S DRIVE NORTHCOTE HOUSE EX4 4QJ Exeter Zjednoczone Królestwo Zobacz na mapie Region South West (England) Devon Devon CC Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Uczestnictwo w unijnych programach w zakresie badań i innowacji Opens in new window sieć współpracy HORIZON Opens in new window Koszt całkowity € 2 249 834,00 Beneficjenci (1) Sortuj alfabetycznie Sortuj według wkładu UE netto Rozwiń wszystko Zwiń wszystko THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER Zjednoczone Królestwo Wkład UE netto € 2 249 834,00 Adres THE QUEEN'S DRIVE NORTHCOTE HOUSE EX4 4QJ Exeter Zobacz na mapie Region South West (England) Devon Devon CC Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Uczestnictwo w unijnych programach w zakresie badań i innowacji Opens in new window sieć współpracy HORIZON Opens in new window Koszt całkowity € 2 249 834,00
