CORDIS

The MED-GOLD project prototypes climate services in agriculture by developing case studies for three hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system: grape, olive, and durum wheat. Climate services – the transformation of climate-related data and information into customised projections, forecasts, analyses for supporting decision-making at all levels – have the potential to become the intelligence behind a climate-resilient, low-carbon society. Agriculture is primarily climate-driven and hence highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Evidence suggests the Mediterranean region is under immediate threat of shifting climate patterns and associated ecological, economic, and social effects. Developing a capacity to turn the increasingly big climate-related data into climate services that can inform decision-making in agriculture is therefore a priority both in Europe and worldwide.

The long-term goal of this project is to make European agriculture and food systems more resilient to climate change, using climate services to minimize risks/costs and seize opportunities for added value. MED-GOLD aims to develop climate services for olive, grape, and durum wheat crop systems that are the basis for producing olive oil, wine, and pasta. These crops and foods are of utmost climatic, ecological, economic, and cultural relevance to the Mediterranean region. Because they are not only hallmarks of the Mediterranean diet but also food commodities with a global market, there is considerable potential for developing climate services with high added value. To address added value directly, MED-GOLD co-designs pilot climate services involving both suppliers and users. Operational decision-making of users is reviewed to either identify key decisions or introduce new actions that can benefit from climate-related information at timescales from months to decades.

Analysis of cases study sectors was carried out focusing on relevant EU regulations. Guidelines for appraising user needs and critical decisions were developed and used in co-design events for grape/wine in the Douro region of Portugal, for olive/olive oil in the Andalusia region of Spain, and for durum wheat/pasta in Italy. Event results were fed into climate service development. Reliability thresholds (hit-rate of forecast) for the grape climate service were identified as 70% for seasonal and 80% for decadal climate forecasts. Following are critical decisions identified. Grape: siting, choice of scion variety and rootstock, control of pathogens and abiotic stress, and management of wine style. Olive: pest management, fertilization, irrigation, pruning, harvesting, and design of new orchards. Durum wheat: variety selection, purchase/selling of commodities, supply chain planning, breeding, and siting. Relevant weather station data were collected. Climate data processing was tested in the durum wheat case study.

Replicability is based on shared cloud computing services and resources (the ICT platform) that were designed and deployed to integrate project components. Suitability of available climate datasets for use in climate services was assessed by comparison with weather station data, and E-OBS and UERRA were found most useful for adjusting climate model bias. ICT tools were set up for project management, internal communication, and coordination. To facilitate data access and reuse, a Data Management Plan was prepared including appropriate metadata. Replicability involves extension of the MED-GOLD approach to coffee, the world’s most important agricultural commodity. The Colombian team modeled coffee using the same approach used for olive. Work in Colombia focused on model parameters, weather data, and engagement of coffee growers.

Analysis of the EU market for climate services was performed. To support communication and dissemination, a Communication Management Plan was prepared in compliance with the Quality Management Plan. Similar international initiatives were identified to foster synergy. The project was presented at 18 events, linked to 41 similar initiatives, appeared in 49 media items, organized six workshops, and produced one infosheet and one newsletter. Project website (www.med-gold.eu) and Twitter account were set up, and a visual identity was developed for the project. A translation team produced communication material in six languages to reach wider target audiences.

The MED-GOLD community was kickstarted by collecting contacts for stakeholders interested in webinars, bulletins, online forum, surveys, and workshops; by attending relevant events; and by setting up a user forum. By mid 2018, the project had identified a potential user community of 51 prospective members in the olive sector, 54 in the grape sector, 97 in the durum wheat sector, and 58 in the general agricultural sector. Community members that established direct contact with the project were 58.

MED-GOLD builds on major recent European initiatives on climate services, using case studies to stimulate demand for such services, with the ultimate goal of reaching European agriculture and society at large.

For the first time, objective integration of climate information into decision processes for grape and wine business will be possible, ultimately resulting in enhanced resilience. A climate-aware wine industry will boost its reputation as heritage guardian that not only conserves its tradition but also projects it into the future with value gains and setting innovations that will become future traditions.

Based on climate services with high economic and environmental added value, olive – “the life and identity of the Mediterranean” – will give back to the environment increasingly more than it takes. The project will provide a groundbreaking opportunity to use seasonal climate forecasts in managing olive fruit fly, the major pest of olive worldwide.

The durum wheat pilot service will provide unprecedented critical information for fine-tuning fertilization to each specific crop situation. Ultimately, the pasta industry will improve its overall environmental performance to make pasta increasingly good for the consumer, the planet, and communities.

Expected added value ranges from agricultural management to policy-making at the Mediterranean, European, and global levels. This is because olive, grape, and durum wheat are grown worldwide and produce global food commodities that are also staple foods of the Mediterranean diet, and hence have demonstrated potential for contrasting the increasing homogeneity in global food supplies, with important food security implications and significant health benefits, and for reducing the ecological footprint of the global food system.

The entire value chain for climate services in agriculture is represented in the project, and the potential market for the services developed is global, with most producers and consumers currently located in the Mediterranean region. Engagement of potential users and development of a sound business model will get MED-GOLD climate services ready for commercial settings.

MED-GOLD focuses on food systems – not just crops or commodities – as it recognizes that complex interactions between food production and global environmental change require a holistic approach. Systems thinking will provide insight into the socio-economic context of food production, show options for conserving natural resources, and support climate resilience in food systems.