CORDIS
EU research results

CORDIS

English EN
The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions

Objective

The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. Specifically for the energy sector, SECLI-CLIM will assess the impact on operational planning and portfolio management, such as hedging and asset optimization, thus enabling quantification of the value-add provided by seasonal forecasts which have been calibrated, evaluated and tailored for each specific application. Improvements in management decisions will ultimately lead to an improved supply-demand balance and therefore to a more efficient energy system, particularly with respect to renewable energy, with corresponding benefits for climate change mitigation.

A simple, but effective, methodology will be used to assess value added. A control case will only utilise climatological conditions based on historical averaged values – currently the most common approach – while a test case will also consider individually optimised and tailored state-of-the-art probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This will be done for nine case studies for Europe and South America: recent seasons with anomalous/extreme climate conditions leading to problematic and quantifiable impacts for the energy and/or water industry. Crucially for success, the case studies will be co-designed by industrial and research partners.

These case studies will provide the basis for developing pilot climate services for a number of specific applications, allowing evaluation of the added value of near real-time information for decision making. Thus SECLI-FIRM will promote research advances in the optimization of seasonal forecasts for specific applications (e.g. by evaluating both local processes and large-scale teleconnections), as well as promoting the uptake of seasonal forecasts by industry and hence expansion of the climate services market.

Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

Address

Earlham Road
Nr4 7tj Norwich

United Kingdom

Activity type

Higher or Secondary Education Establishments

EU Contribution

€ 1 196 000

Participants (8)

Sort alphabetically

Sort by EU Contribution

Expand all

ENEL GLOBAL TRADING SPA

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 888 750

AGENZIA NAZIONALE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L'ENERGIA E LO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO SOSTENIBILE

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 241 250

MET OFFICE

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 696 875

AWS TRUEPOWER SL

Spain

EU Contribution

€ 389 375

KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 563 125

WORLD ENERGY & METEOROLOGY COUNCIL

United Kingdom

EU Contribution

€ 316 875

ACCADEMIA EUROPEA DI BOLZANO

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 268 750

ALPERIA SpA

Italy

EU Contribution

€ 77 500

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 776868

Status

Ongoing project

  • Start date

    1 February 2018

  • End date

    31 July 2021

Funded under:

H2020-EU.3.5.1.

  • Overall budget:

    € 4 638 500

  • EU contribution

    € 4 638 500

Coordinated by:

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

United Kingdom