- The possibilities for longer term forecasting (month or season) rely mainly on the development and/or improvement of global methods using statistic/dynamic approaches. In order to test the use of such methods for long-term forecasting of rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin, a joint project has been developed by the meteorological research centres of Algeria, France, Morocco and Tunisia, the whole under the co-ordination of Medias-France.
Results so far

- The first results obtained are encouraging. This methodology and technical solutions for monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall cycles are tested over the Maghreb and the validation to ask to be confirmed during the year 1997. It seems judicious to extend this validation, already tested, over the South European Countries, Third Mediterranean Countries and Subtropical African Regions. These long term forecasts would be essential information for agriculture and water management authorities.

During the three year period to be devoted to this study, the project partners will attempt :

* To specify, on the basis of retrospective studies, the memory effect of the oceanic structure and its anomalies on atmospheric circulation, and the succession of types of weather and rainfall patterns;
* To evaluate a posteriori, using archives in situ observations, the quality of different casting tests provided by Meteo-France to the three other participants;
* To achieve, from July 1996, almost real-time one to four months' forecasts over the Mediterranean Basin;
* To evaluate the quality of these forecasts by comparing them locally with data from the Maghreb partners' "ground" networks.