Cel The study aims at investigating the skill of present forecasting systems for the prediction of wind conditions within a 36 hour time frame. With the increasing penetration of wind energy into the electric grids all over the world, in Europe in particular, the utilities have found a need for accurate estimates of the power production from wind energy on a short term (ie up to 36 hours) in order to include wind energy in the planning.There are 2 major paths in the project, each part being related the prediction model involved:a phusical model based on output from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), the geostrophic drag law, the wind profile in the surface boundary layer and corrections for the local terrain (as corrected by the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Programme (WASP);a regression model (ANOVA) based on output from the Mesoscale Model of the British Meteorological Office, using found correlations (different from station to station) between different physical parameters (as season, time of day, wind direction and precipitation).In order to evaluate the quality of the 2 models 3 methods have been taken into account:statistical analysis;comparison to persistence (ie using a persistence model as a zero order model);using the output from the models as input to the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL) Reading University National Grid Model, which is a model simulating the British electrical grid.It looks as if the models will perform better than what is used presently (presistence), especially bearing in mind that the basic forecasting tool of both models is numerical weather prediction models, which constantly undergo improvement. It is still too early to put any firm numbers on the economic savings by using any of the models.The project involves two groups: a Danish (Ris and DMI); and a British (RAL). The work plans for the two groups are described as follows. DANISH PART The Danish part of the investigation will take advantage of two main developments: A High Resolution Limited Area weather prediction Model (HIRLAM) and the siting model WASP developed at Risoe National Laboratory. The work is divided into the following items: 1) Selection of stations. 2) Extraction of relevant model output. As e.g. low level winds and geostrophic winds. 3) Extraction of measured surface winds. 4) Preparation of monthly time series. Time series with measured winds and extracted model predicted parameters are prepared. 5) Analysis of monthly time series. Based on the monthly time series the skill of the model set-up for short term wind predictions at the target sites is evaluated. BRITISH PART In the UK it is planned to do the following: 1) Site selection. 2) Updating UK-NGM. The RAL/Reading University National Grid model will be updated to reflect the plant mix present on the grid of England and Wales in 1990. 3) Meteorological Office Forecasts and Statistical Evaluation. Wind speed and direction forecasts for the selected locations from the Meteorological Office Mesoscale model will be obtained. 4) Economic Evaluation of the Forecasts. Once the statistical evaluation of the mesoscale forecasts has been completed the existing RAL/Reading University Model (UK-NGM) will be used to assess the accuracy of the forecasts uneconomic terms. The optimum look-ahead time required in the forecasts will also be determined. 5) Refinements of Forecasts. 6) Evaluation of Danish HIRLAM. HIRLAM forecasts will be compared with the Meteorological Office Mesoscale model. Dziedzina nauki natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyengineering and technologyelectrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineeringelectrical engineeringpower engineeringelectric power distributionengineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energywind powersocial scienceslaw Program(-y) FP2-JOULE 1 - Specific research and technological development programme (EEC) in the field of energy - non-nuclear energies and rational use of energy - (JOULE), 1989-1992 Temat(-y) Data not available Zaproszenie do składania wniosków Data not available System finansowania CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Koordynator RISOE NATIONAL LABORATORY Wkład UE Brak danych Adres Frederiksborgvej 399 ROSKILDE Dania Zobacz na mapie Koszt całkowity Brak danych Uczestnicy (2) Sortuj alfabetycznie Sortuj według wkładu UE Rozwiń wszystko Zwiń wszystko DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE Dania Wkład UE Brak danych Adres 100,Lyngbyvej 100 2100 KOEPENHAGEN Zobacz na mapie Koszt całkowity Brak danych Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Zjednoczone Królestwo Wkład UE Brak danych Adres Polaris House North Star Avenue SN2 1ET Swindon Zobacz na mapie Koszt całkowity Brak danych
