A major item within the Radiation Protection Research Action of the 3rd Framework Programme has been the development of RODOS, a comprehensive, Real-time, On-line DecisiOn Support system for nuclear emergency management, that will be capable of finding broad application across Europe. When complete, the RODOS system is intended to be applicable from the vicinity of the release of radioactive material to far distant areas and able to make consistent predictions unperturbed by national boundaries. In this way it will be possible to achieve estimates, analyses, and prognoses of accident consequences, protective actions and countermeasures which are consistent throughout all accident phases and distance ranges. In particular, all relevant environmental data, including radiological and meteorological information and readings, are to be processed, by means of models and mathematical procedures, into understandable, interpretable pictures of the current and predicted future radiological situations. The system will also offer the possibility to evaluate alternative combinations of countermeasures and protective actions in term of feasibility in the given situation, and to support judgements by the decision makers of the public acceptability of the actions, and of the socio-psychological and political implications. This will be achieved through the appropriate use of rule-based expert systems, weights, preference functions and other decision analytic methods. The application of these techniques will result in a ranked order of options together with an explanation of those rules and weights which predominantly have led to the evolution.
The first prototype of the RODOS system with functionality limited to deterministic predictions was completed in 1992 and has been, or is in the process of being, implemented in its subsequent version, PRTY 2.0, by mid 1995 in institutes in Belarus, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic and the Ukraine; institutes in Portugal, Spain and Czech Republic have requested the system and discussions are proceeding with institutes in other European countries. Further development of the system and its component parts is now proceeding in parallel in many institutes. The prime objective of this proposal for the 4th Framework Programme is: the development of a quality assured, fully operational, comprehensive version of the RODOS system with appropriate interfaces to radiological and meteorological networks, and associated evaluation, validation and training packages. The work programme will extend the applicability of the system to encompass all stages of an accident and all distance ranges within Europe, and making improvements in existing functions where there is a demonstrable need. Two topics will receive particular attention: firstly, the development of an integrated approach for the handling of uncertainties and their effective communication to decision makers and, secondly, the development of improved methods for assimilating and making better use of monitoring data and model predictions.
There will be continued validation of the models and methodologies employed and quality software engineering techniques will be employed.
During the project several intermediate versions will be released. First, a further prototype, PRTY 3.0, by the end of 1996, followed by the first pre-operational version, PV 3.1, in mid 1997. Using the experience gained through pre-operational use in several European countries, improvements will be made and incorporated together with the then available results of the ongoing R&D work in a further pilot version, PV 3.2, by mid 1998 and the final version, PV 4.0, by the end of 1999.
As an Appendix to this proposal of the EU institutes, the work programme of institutes in Central and Eastern European countries and Republics of the former Soviet Union is attached summarising the process, already begun, of integrating the RODOS system in their national emergency management arrangements, adapting models and data bases to local, regional and national conditions, and customising the system as top level processing and evaluating system of their meteorological and radiological information networks.