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Zawartość zarchiwizowana w dniu 2022-12-23

Decision-making when facing random in a broad sense phenomena

Cel



Management science offers standard treatments of decision under uncertainty which always assume that uncertainty is a random phenomenon, which should be taken care of by probability calculus, at least when the corresponding probabilities are known. We know, however, that most of the time this is not the case in business life, nor in economic life in general, where the largest part of the uncertainty depends on the behaviour of human beings. Most of the time these types of behaviour are simply not pure random phenomena and do not fall within the realm of application of probability theory.

The objective of the present research is twofold. The first investigation will consider the conditions under which phenomena forming the bulk of the uncertainty faced by business communities may be dealt with as if they were within the realm of application of probability theory and in what broad sense, mathematically characterised, such phenomena might be regarded as random.

Secondly, the research will necessarily be led to define different structural forms of uncertainty and how criteria of decision making should correspond to the different situations respectively described by each form of uncertainty. Such a theory of the contingency of rationality has been evoked by economists and management scientists but there is no general framework which could serve as a theory of it.

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Koordynator

Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan
Wkład UE
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Adres
Avenue du Président Wilson 61
94235 Cachan
Francja

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