Objectif Most studies of climate change impacts use models to link a proposed climate change to perturbations of natural, economic or social systems. Many unknowns and assumptions are involved. An alternative, possibly more fruitful, line of research is to consider the observed impacts of recent climate extremes as analogues for impacts in a warmer world. Such empirical studies, when carried out in a rigorous quantitative manner, can provide useful information on the nature and scale of impacts and guide our understanding of sensitivities to future climate change. The aims of this project are: a) To examine the impacts of a selected recent hot summer, and a recent mild winter, on the natural environment and on national economies and societies. To set a monetary value on these impacts, where possible. The approach will be sector-wise, and will include: natural ecosystems (forests, wetlands and heathlands), water resources and supply, agriculture, transport, tourism, outdoor fires, and health impacts. b) To study the extent to which adaptation is already occurring to perceived changes in the frequency of hot weather. (A recent UK study shows adaptations in the water and transport engineering sectors.) This will enable understanding of the extent to which sectors are self-regulating, i.e. in the absence of external guidance, the extent to which management will independently take the decision to act, and what informs this decision. c) To examine how the impacts of climate anomalies propagate between the national economies of the member countries of the KU, and between the EU and the rest of the world. Candidate sectors for analysis include tourism (decisions may be influenced by perceptions of current weather at home and a the destination) and agriculture (trade in agricultural produce should be influenced by regional yield variations). d) To examine the impact of selected occurrences of climate 'shocks', particularly wind storm, which may occur with increased frequency in a warmer world. Appropriate sectors for consideration include forestry, transport and property insurance. e) To examine how sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate extremes and shocks have changed over time. This may be done by comparing the impact of a recent extreme/shock with impacts at an earlier time. Examples could be between the 1995 hot summer and that of 1976, or between the great wind storms of 1990 and 1976. f) To use the results, where appropriate, to draw conclusions regarding the possible impacts of a warmer climate on national economies and on the KU. The study will be based principally on statistical analyses of published government, EU and UN statistics. Regression analyses will be performed between residuals from detrended economic series and climate variables to establish the size of the impact and as a step towards valuation. The results will be supplemented and explained by management interview. The role of non-climatic factors in accounting for observed national differences in the response to climate extremes will be investigated. A survey of perceptions will be carried out to determine the extent to which the respondents felt the climate anomaly affected both national welfare and their personal activities e.g. holiday plans and health. These questions will identify differences between perceptions in different parts of Europe. In total, the project will form a comprehensive analysis of national and transnational impacts, studying changes in sensitivity and adaptations in a framework which will, where possible, allow a monetary value to be placed on the impacts. Champ scientifique natural sciencesearth and related environmental scienceshydrologyengineering and technologycivil engineeringtransportation engineeringnatural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystemsagricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculturenatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) FP4-ENV 2C - Specific programme of research and technological development in the field of environment and climate, 1994-1998 Thème(s) 0403 - Integration of scientific knowledge and of economic and societal considerations into the formulation of environment policies Appel à propositions Data not available Régime de financement CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Coordinateur UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse University Plain NR4 7TJ NORWICH Royaume-Uni Voir sur la carte Liens Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée Participants (3) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI Italie Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Corso Magenta 63 MILANO Voir sur la carte Liens Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH Allemagne Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Telegrafenberg C4 1441 POTSDAM Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT AMSTERDAM - VERENIGING VOOR CHRISTELIJK WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERWIJS Pays-Bas Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse De Boelelaan 1115 1081 HV AMSTERDAM Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée
