Problems addressed
The aim of the project is to prepare a set of analyses addressing the issue of the economic assessment of Climate Change policies, as resulting from the mechanisms established at the Kyoto conference. The analyses will also be extended for the post-Kyoto perspectives. A set of global (world) scenarios to 2030 will be developed, in order to analyse the impacts of different policies under flexibility mechanisms for emission reduction, including options to reduce emissions resulting from land use change and for strengthening carbon sinks. In this endeavour, a high priority will be put on the identification of emission reduction strategies that may fit in a perspective of sustainable development at world level, i.e. that correspond to criteria of international and intergenerational equity.
Scientific objectives
The research component of the project aims at enhancing and using international energy and economy models already developed in the context of preceding Framework Programmes, in order to fully analyse the consequences of different patterns of international commitments and agreements for the control of greenhouse gas emissions to the 2030 horizon. The project will aim at developing the synergy between the POLES model of the world energy sector, the world general equilibrium GEM-E3 model and the integrated assessment IMAGE model, as complementary tools for the analysis of the climate negotiation.
This synergy will not be developed by a formal integration of the models, but by:
- the use of common sets of scenarios on international commitments and on the different types of flexibility systems to be discussed in the negotiation process for the Kyoto and post-Kyoto time-frame;
- "soft links" between the models relying on structured sets of hypotheses (baseline world economic projections to 2030) or results;
- a systematic comparison of the results on "gross" and "net" costs of abatement policies (i.e., respectively, sectoral and economy-wide costs), by main world regions and under the different entitlement and flexibility schemes. New model development will also take place through the introduction of modules concerning the emission projection and Marginal Abatement Costs curves for greenhouse gases other than energy related CO2, particularly as concerns land-use and agricultural activities.
Expected impacts
The project will thus allow providing European decision-makers and negotiators with analytical and quantified information on the sectoral and economy-wide impacts of alternative schemes of emission entitlements, flexibility systems and policy instruments. It may thus help to define a European strategy in the international negotiation, while at the same time taking into account the preoccupation of sustainable development at world level.