Objectives and problems to be solved:
SAPIENTIA deals with technology dynamics and the impact of R&D actions on technological developments.. It employs methodologies based on energy systems analysis in order to capture all the key interactions. Building on previous research on power generation technologies it extends to cover non-power technologies and to address sustainable development concerns and indicators. It analyses both medium and longer-term technology prospects and in this way expands the number of R&D options considered. Going beyond modelling energy technology dynamics, the project involves the construction of an R&D decision support tool capable of performing portfolio analysis in the face of multiple "traditional" and sustainable development objectives. This tool allows for the interconnection of impacts of R&D actions and takes into account their uncertain nature. Methodologies are developed to enable its interactive use by non-expert decision makers.
Description of work:
The project involves the identification of candidate technologies and the collection of technical-economic and R&D expenditure data concerning them, in many cases using innovative indirect methods. Using such data it estimates 'learning by experience' and 'learning by research' relations that will be incorporated in all the analytical tools used in the project. Appropriate measurable sustainable development indicators covering the areas of energy CO2 emissions, climate change, health concerns, pressure on natural resources, transport congestion, measures of social exclusion and regional imbalances are identified and the energy models are extended so as to incorporate the whole chain from R&D actions on specific technologies to impacts on these indicators. In order to cover longer-term analysis the horizon of world energy models is extended. Such extensions involve re-designing model mechanisms. A stochastic model incorporating all the changes to the large-scale models in a reduced form is developed within the project enabling the measurement of uncertainties and their interconnections. This model is used for providing the essential stochastic input to the decision support tool. The stochastic together with the large-scale models are applied to perform extensive experiments in the form of R&D "shocks" and after suitable analytical treatment the results are used to provide the essential parameters of the decision support tool. This tool is then used for carrying out "real life" R&D portfolio exploration.
Expected results and exploitation plans:
SAPIENTIA delivers a rich set of data and analysis on key energy technologies and the interplay involving energy and RTD policy, sustainable development and technological improvement. The project deliverables include analytical results on R&D priorities, portfolio allocation and innovation policy, energy and emission developments (for the EU and the World), and analytical quantified results illustrating mechanisms of induced technological progress. SAPIENTIA assists policy makers and stakeholders in understanding the potential of R&D in addressing sustainable development concerns within an integrated assessment framework.