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Arctic coastal dynamics of Eurasia: classification, modern state and prediction of its development based on GIS technology

Ziel

The Arctic coastlines are highly variable, can be stable or extremely dynamic and are the site of most of the human activity that occurs at high latitudes. Extraction of natural resources occurs in many locations around the Arctic Ocean creating the need for port facilities and the potential for pollution. These pressures are only likely to increase with time. Though numerous multi-lateral investigations of Arctic coastal dynamics have been performed, the data are scattered and insufficiently systematised. This project aims to produce a digital classification of Eurasian Arctic coasts, to assess the modern state of the coasts and to predict its future behaviour in response to human activities and possible climate changes by using GIS (Geographic Information System) technology.
Six teams will be working on the project, including two INTAS participants and four NIS teams. Six inter-related tasks are proposed and each team will be responsible for one task:
1. Development of a unified classification of coasts relying on the basic factors and mechanisms: relief origin, geological and geomorphological conditions, properties of sediments and specific substrate containing ground-ice, ice regime, wind and wave climate;
2. Elaboration of a morpho-genetic cartographic model of Eurasian Arctic coasts characterising the modern state of coastal dynamics;
3. Assessment of human impact on Arctic thermal-abrasion coasts in the process of the industrial expanse;
4. Prognosis of evolution of the Eurasian Arctic coasts in the 21st century;
5. Coastal classification and quantification of coastal changes by means of multi-temporal air photographs and satellite images;
6. Development of a web-deliverable coastal classification and map products.
The expected scientific results are summarised as follows:
- A unified general classification of shore processes will be developed for Arctic Eurasia;
- Regional dynamic characteristics of shores and the offshore zone will be given, along with the analysis and specification of regional characteristics of principal natural factors, which influence the coastal zone evolution in Arctic Eurasia;
- A GIS-based classification of shore processes will be developed; the data will be summarised using a cartographic base; a multi-purpose GIS-project will be developed using ArcINFO-ArcView ver. 8.1 (an electronic map of shore processes classification for Arctic Eurasia);
- An electronic map of coast types of Eurasia will be compiled; it will be supplied with an electronic data base including characteristics of climate, hydrology, morphology, lithology, properties of soils, solid rocks and permafrost, special features of sea and shore interaction;
- Engineering-geocryological maps will be compiled for test sites on the Arctic coast of Eurasia; a prediction of changes in geocryological conditions under industrial impact on the coastal zone will be developed;
- Models of depositional and thermal-erosional coast development will be elaborated for the Arctic region under conditions of sea-level and ice regime changes;
- A general prognostic scheme of the Eurasian Arctic shelf evolution will be devised for the next 100 years.

The project is a contribution to ACD, which is an international umbrella for Arctic coastal processes supported by the International Arctic Sciences Committee (IASC) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA). Local and regional governments, environmental organisations (CAFF, AMAP, WCMC), policy organisations (IPCC, ACIA) and industry will benefit from the outcome of this project.

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Koordinator

Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Adresse
Telegrafenberg A43
14473 Potsdam
Deutschland

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