A heated debate is ongoing over the predictability of earthquakes. More and more specialists seem to agree that deterministic prediction is impossible, statistical prediction (e.g. forecasting based on past seismicity) has so far failed to produce indisputable successes, and consistent precursory phenomena are extremely unlikely. Responsible for these failures is the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of the Earth.
If earthquakes cannot (at least at present) be predicted with satisfactory accuracy, then perhaps their occurrence can in some way be controlled? A hint is provided by the recent discovery that seismicity can be affected by various natural and manmade disturbances, such as strong distant earthquakes, earth tides. The present project aims at a thorough phenomenological, laboratory and theoretical investigation of a relatively novel trigger: controlled electromagnetic (EM) discharges. EM discharges have the obvious advantage over other triggering (control) means (e.g., explosions or vibration) that they are easy to manage and more environment-friendly.
Data from earthquake-prediction experiments in which seismically active regions of Central Asia were subjected to regular EM sounding with the aid of a magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) generator will be analysed by means of advanced statistical tools while taking account of the presence of other potential triggers, natural and manmade, to reveal possible interrelations. The dynamic spatio-temporal behaviour of induced seismicity will be studied by modern fractal/multifractal techniques. Laboratory tests will be performed on rock specimens with different mineral content, various dimensions (from several cubic centimetres up to tens and thousands of cubic centimetres) and different water content (from completely dry to fully saturated) in order to investigate the mechanisms of seismic/acoustic emission (fracturing) initiation by EM impulses.
Advanced statistical tools, incorporating pattern-recognition algorithms based on fuzzy mathematics, will be developed to permit simultaneous analysis of different geophysical data for possible (weak) interrelations. Fractal/multifractal techniques will be developed for the study of the spatio-temporal dynamics of seismicity. A rheological model of the faulting process in rock incorporating the electroseismic effect will be constructed. A better understanding of the physics of the triggering mechanism (in particular of the coupling between the EM and stress fields) will be achieved. A method will be proposed that will permit control of the seismic regime to relieve tectonic stresses and mitigate seismic hazard in earthquake-prone regions.