Obiettivo The principal aim of the project is to develop a new econometric modelling technique, vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling with bilinear error corrections, and apply to the modelling of economies in the period of transition, where only short data series are available. This principal aim can be expressed by 4 specific objectives:To develop the foundations of nonlinear structural vector autoregressive (NS-VAR) modelling;To formulate a macroeconomic model which is appropriate for modelling an economy during the transition period;To develop and apply appropriate simulation and estimation methods which will be used for the NS-VAR modelling using only short time series of data;To apply the results of the above for constructing an empirical NS-VAR model for Russia and Ukraine, estimating it evaluating its simulation and forecasting properties and to prepare final output.There will be two research teams from the NIS countries: from St. Petersburg State University (Russia) and Kiev National University (Ukraine). The INTAS countries are represented by one team from the University of Leicester (United Kingdom) and one from the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) in Paris (France). The project is scheduled for 34 months and its realisation is divided into three phases, which generally correspond to the period of the development of the theoretical NS-VAR model, calibration for the initial values of parameters and finally estimation, simulation and economic policy analysis.Generally, the project's contribution to knowledge is expected to be the following:A nonlinear VAR model with a bilinear error correction mechanism will be proposed. This will constitute advancement in the theory of nonstationary and nonlinear econometric modelling;Estimation algorithms for the RSG estimation of such a model will be prepared. This will be advancement in the theory of global optimisation and econometric estimation;A small size empirical macroeconomic NS-VAR model with bilinear error correction mechanisms will be developed, estimated and simulated. This will be advancement in applied macroeconomic modelling and the analysis of East European economies in transition. Programma(i) IC-INTAS - International Association for the promotion of cooperation with scientists from the independent states of the former Soviet Union (INTAS), 1993- Argomento(i) 7 - Economics, Social and Human Sciences OPEN - OPEN Call Invito a presentare proposte Data not available Meccanismo di finanziamento Data not available Coordinatore UNIVERSITY OF LEICESTER Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo UNIVERSITY ROAD LEICESTER Regno Unito Mostra sulla mappa Costo totale Nessun dato Partecipanti (3) Classifica in ordine alfabetico Classifica per Contributo UE Espandi tutto Riduci tutto European University at Saint Petersburg Russia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo ul. Gagarinskaya 3 191187 St. Petersburg Mostra sulla mappa Costo totale Nessun dato Kiev National Shevchenko University Ucraina Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Vladimirskaya Str., 64 252601 Kiev Mostra sulla mappa Costo totale Nessun dato National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies Francia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Room 2047, BP 100, 15 bd. Gabriel Péri 92244 Malakoff Cedex Mostra sulla mappa Costo totale Nessun dato