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Contenu archivé le 2022-12-23

Estimation of extreme metocean events

Objectif

Extreme value predictions are of major interest for the offshore industry where structures over whole period of their life are subjected to extensive environmental loads from wind, current and waves.

One of the specific features of metocean events are their multiscale variability from seconds up to hundreds years. So, one of the main problems in the extreme value analysis of the environmental factors is the lack of appropriate stochastic models. In particular, models varying simultaneously on the highly different time scales of the phenomena, and models with both deterministic and stochastic parts.

The objectives of the project are investigation of the general probabilistic characteristics of extreme wind waves, storm surges, floods, wind and currents; development of models for the multidimensional variability of metocean values and events;
calculation of extreme metocean characteristics in the regions of the World ocean and seas, where ocean structures are operating or will be operating.

The following main results will be achieved in the project: General stochastic model of multiscale variability of natural variability of metocean events, including random model of discrete cyclic metocean events, based on the theory of Markov chains and impulse processes; model of multidimensional continuous metocean fields (waves, winds, currents) in view of their nonstationary and inhomogenity; combined models of multi-scale metocean events. Assessment of the extremes for the marine systems with limitations in deep, and shallow water; calculation of the hydrodynamics limitations of the wave impacts on the on-shore and offshore structures. Assessment of the hydrodynamic limits of sea level and storm surges current velocities in coastal areas; a probabilistic theory and computational method for definition the extreme behaviour of events with known deterministic limitation.

Appel à propositions

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Régime de financement

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Coordinateur

Norwegian University for Science and Technology
Contribution de l’UE
Aucune donnée
Adresse
Alfred Getz v.1
7034 Trondheim
Norvège

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Coût total
Aucune donnée

Participants (4)