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A high resolution numerical wind energy model for on- and offshore forecasting using ensemble predictions (HONEYMOON)

Objective

Objectives and Problems to be solved :
With more accurate forecasts of wind power production, network operators will be able to plan more effectively for the integration of wind into the network. An implemented uncertainty estimate of the power predictions in the model system will provide an economic measure of the wind power prediction in a "bidding" environment. The system developed in this project will try to meet the requirements of the customers and users of the system. The future maintenance of the system has the highest priority in the development, and a major challenge is the portability of the software and its flexibility to available computer resources. A key element in the system will be the flexibility in coupling of specific models of the atmosphere, ocean and surface waves. This coupled model system will increase the quality of on- and offshore wind forecasts.
Description of work
HONEYMOON's project framework allows plug-and-play of coded modules, which speeds up development, debugging, and testing cycles immensely. We will address how dynamic implementation of code modules rather than static implementation can cut development and test-times down. The new forecast model is based on the structure of the DMI-High Resolution Limited Area Model HIRLAM. The wave model WAM was coupled to and a wind power module implemented into HIRLAM recently. In the project, the ocean model BSH and an ensemble prediction system will become new modules. These together will build a new forecasting system. The HIRLAM model, the wave model WAM and the wind power model HIRPOM will be further adapted to operational wind energy requirements and the coupling strategies improved. The main purpose of the coupling between ocean, wave and atmospheric model is to predict currents in the sea that have impact on sea waves. Both, the tidal and wind forced currents have impact on the sea waves. These affect the sea surface roughness in the atmospheric model and hence wind fields and power prediction. Predictions of waves and currents for maintenance purposes will improve significantly from this coupling. Offshore resource assessments will also benefit from the coupled prediction system, because of the lack of observations. There is no dependency between the modules and the setup will keep the model backward compatible. Any development can thus be easily verified and progress assessed continuously throughout the project. The technical framework has already been developed and tested in semi-operational test mode. The project can therefore fully concentrate on the scientific development, especially the accuracy and portability of the model on- and offshore. Other weather prediction models can be "plugged in" and used in the model system, which will be demonstrated by using data from other met services. Milestones and expected results Using an operational numerical weather prediction model as a development basis for a real-time wind energy predictions is a sophisticated and yet secure way to meet the challenges of the wind energy forecasting. Such a model makes use of newest modelling methods, provides experience in operational use and maintenance. The new operational model will comprise a NWP model, a wind power, wave, and ocean model, plus ensemble predictions and will be tested at 3 different end-users in the EU.

Call for proposal

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE CORK, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND, CORK
Address
Western Road
Cork
Ireland

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Participants (8)

DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Denmark
Address
100,lyngbyvej 100
2100 Koepenhagen

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E.ON UK PLC
United Kingdom
Address
Ratcliffe-on-soar
NG11 0EE Nottingham

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ESPACE EOLIEN DEVELOPPEMENT SARL
France
Address
Rue Des Ponts De Comines 19
Lille

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EWE AG
Germany
Address
Tirpitzstrasse 39
26015 Oldenburg

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I/S ELTRA
Denmark
Address
Fjordvejen 1 - 11
7000 Fredericia

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INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
Spain
Address
Camino De Las Moreras S/n
28071 Madrid

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POWERGEN RENEWABLES DEVELOPMENT LIMITED
United Kingdom
Address
Westwood Business Park
CV4 8LG Coventry

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UNIVERSITY OF OLDENBURG
Germany
Address
9-11,carl Von Ossietzky Straße 9-11
26129 Oldenburg

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