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Control policy optimisation for SARS and other emerging infections: characterising transmission dynamics and estimating key epidemiological parameters

Control policy optimisation for SARS and other emerging infections: characterising transmission dynamics and estimating key epidemiological parameters

Objective

The proposal has four key objectives: a) to characterise and quantify the key factors that determine the transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent via epidemiological analysis and clinical studies of material collected from SARS patients, to develop statistical methods to estimate key parameters, and to complete retrospective epidemiological analyses of national or city based databases of the SARS epidemics in Hong Kong, Beijing, and Taiwan that capture the spatial and temporal network structure of mixing between individuals; b) to define ideal structures for case databases to facilitate rapid analysis and interpretation of epidemic trends and the impact of interventions; c) to create a mathematical framework for studying optimal control policies for directly transmitted respiratory tract infectious diseases in both local, country-wide and global contexts, to inform policy makers; d) to develop models for scenario and risk analysis to explore how best to control defined infectious disease epidemics. The proposal builds on past work with collaborators in Hong Kong which facilitated the creation of a structured database for all SARS cases in those regions and Taiwan, and the analysis day by day of the course of the epidemic and the impact of different interventions (Riley et al, Science May 23rd, 2003; Donnelly et al., Lancet, May 7th, 2003). Clinical aspects to be addressed in this proposal include: the typical course of infection in patients of different ages and with various co-morbidities; the infectiousness (level of viral shedding) of patients through time following acquisition of infection; and the distributions of incubation and infectious periods as a function of modifying factors such as age. Epidemiological aspects include the routes of transmission of the virus, and the types of contacts that resulted in transmission. Although much of the research will be focused on SARS, the overall aims include the development of a mathematical...

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Coordinator

IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE

Address

Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus
London

United Kingdom

Administrative Contact

Roy ANDERSON (Professor)

Participants (6)

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INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA SANTE ET DE LA RECHERCHE MEDICALE

France

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT

Netherlands

DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY MEDICINE, THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

Hong Kong

NATIONAL HEALTH RESEARCH INSTITUTES, TAIWAN

Taiwan

LABORATORY OF RESPIRATION DEPT., GENERAL HOSPITAL OF PLA, BEIJING CHINA

China

IC CONSULTANTS LTD

United Kingdom

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 511066

  • Start date

    1 August 2004

  • End date

    31 December 2007

Funded under:

FP6-POLICIES

  • Overall budget:

    € 2 587 145

  • EU contribution

    € 1 700 000

Coordinated by:

IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE

United Kingdom