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ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts

Cel

Prediction of both natural climate variability and human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in forecast initial conditions, representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth - System Models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. For the first time ever, a common ensemble forecast system will be developed for use across a range of timescales (seasonal, decadal, and longer) and spatial scales (global, regional, and local). This model system will be used to construct integrated scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilisation scenarios. This will provide a basis for quantitative risk assessment of climate change and climate variability, with emphasis on changes in extremes, including changes in storminess and precipitation, and the severity and frequency of drought, and the effects of "surprises", such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. Most importantly, the model system will be extensively validated. Hind casts made by the model system for the 20th century will be compared against quality-controlled, high-resolution girded datasets for Europe. Probability forecasts made with the model system on the seasonal and decadal timescales will also be validated against existing data. The exploitation of the results will be maximised by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a wide range of applications. In turn, feedbacks from these impact areas back to the climate system will also be addressed. Thus ENSEMBLES will have a structuring effect on European research by bringing together an unprecedented spectrum of world-leading expertise. This expertise will be mobilised to maintain and extend European pre-eminence in the provision of policy-relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society.

Dziedzina nauki

  • /nauki przyrodnicze/nauki o Ziemi i pokrewne nauki o środowisku/nauki o atmosferze/klimatologia/zmiany klimatu

Zaproszenie do składania wniosków

FP6-2002-GLOBAL-1
Zobacz inne projekty w ramach tego zaproszenia

System finansowania

IP - Integrated Project

Koordynator

MET OFFICE
Adres
Fitzroy Road
Exeter
United Kingdom

Uczestnicy (72)

METEO FRANCE, CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES
Francja
Adres
Avenue G. Coriolis, 42
Toulouse
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
Francja
Adres
3, Rue Michel-ange
Paris
DANMARKS METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUT.
Dania
Adres
Lyngbyvej 100
Copenhagen
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
United Kingdom
Adres
Shinfield Park
Reading
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
Austria
Adres
Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA
Włochy
Adres
V. Di Vigna Murata 605
Rome
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT
Niderlandy
Adres
Wilhelminalaan 10
201 De Bilt
UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL
United Kingdom
Adres
Tyndall Avernue, Senate House
Bristol
MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V.
Niemcy
Adres
Hofgartenstr. 8
Muenchen
NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS
Greece
Adres
Lofos Nymfon
200 48 Thission, Athens
SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT
Szwecja
Adres
Folkborgsvägen 1
Norrköping
UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
United Kingdom
Adres
University Plain
Norwich
UNIVERSITE DE FRIBOURG
Szwajcaria
Adres
Avenue De L'europe 20
Fribourg
UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG
Niemcy
Adres
Moorweidenstrasse 18
Hamburg
UNIVERSITY OF READING
United Kingdom
Adres
Whiteknights
217 Reading
AGENZIA REGIONALE PER LA PREVENZIONE E L'AMBIENTE DELL'EMILIA-ROMAGNA, SERVIZIO METEOROLOGICO REGIONALE'
Włochy
Adres
Viale Silvani 6
Bologna
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI
Greece
Adres
Administration Building - University Campus
Thessaloniki
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE
Australia
Adres
150 Lonsdale Street
PO Box 1289K Melbourne
CENTRE EUROPEAN POUR LE RECHERCHE ET LA FORMATION AVANCEE EN CALCUL SCIENTIFIQUE
Francja
Adres
42 Avenue G. Coriolis
Toulouse
CESKY HYDROMETEOROLOGICKY USTAV
Czechy
Adres
Na Sabatce 17
Prague 4 - Komorany
CICERO SENTER FOR KLIMAFORSKNING
Norwegia
Adres
Sognsveien 68
1129 Oslo
CLIMPACT
Francja
Adres
12 Rue Belzunce
Paris
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Włochy
Adres
Piazzale Aldo Moro 7
Roma
UNIVERZITA KARLOVA V PRAZE
Czechy
Adres
Ovocny Trh 5
Praha 1
DANMARKS JORDBRUGSFORSKNING
Dania
Adres
Research Centre Foulum
Tjele
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI FIRENZE
Włochy
Adres
Piazza San Marco 4
Florence
DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST
Niemcy
Adres
Frankfurter Str. 135
Offenbach
ELECTRICITÉ DE FRANCE
Francja
Adres
22-30 Avenue De Wagram
Paris
ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE
Francja
Adres
45, Rue D'ulm
Paris
EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH
Szwajcaria
Adres
Raemistrasse 101
Zurich
FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI
Włochy
Adres
Corso Magenta 63
Milano
FUNDACIÓN PARA LA INVESTIGACIÓN DEL CLIMA
Hiszpania
Adres
Mar Egeo 10
Majadahonda
ILMATIETEEN LAITOS
Finlandia
Adres
Vuorikatu 24
503 Helsinki
FACHHOCHSCHULE FUER TECHNIK STUTTGART
Niemcy
Adres
Willi-bleicher Str. 24
Stuttgart
FREIE UNIVERSITAET BERLIN
Niemcy
Adres
Kaiserswerther Strasse 16-18
Berlin
GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM GEESTHACHT GMBH
Niemcy
Adres
Max-planck-strasse 1
Geesthacht
USTAV FYZIKY ATMOSFERY AV CR, V.V.I.
Czechy
Adres
Bocni Ii, 1401
Praha 4
THE ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS
Włochy
Adres
Strada Costiera 11
586 Trieste
INSTITUT FUER MEERESKUNDE AN DER UNIVERSITAET
Niemcy
Adres
Duesternbrooker Weg 20
Kiel
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
Hiszpania
Adres
Calle Leonardo Prieto Castro 8
285 Madrid
THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK
Stany Zjednoczone
Adres
1210 Amsterdam Avenue Mc 2205
New York, Ny
INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE KURT BOESCH
Szwajcaria
UNIVERSITÄT STUTTGART
Niemcy
Adres
Keplerstraße 7
Stuttgart
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES - DIRECTORATE GENERAL JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Belgia
Adres
Rue De Loi 200
Brussels
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
United Kingdom
Adres
Houghton Street
London
LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE
United Kingdom
METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT
Norwegia
Adres
Niels Henrik Abels Vei 40
43 Blindern Oslo
METEOSCHWEIZ
Szwajcaria
Adres
Krähbühlstrasse 58
514 Zürich
STIFTELSEN NANSEN SENTER FOR FJERNMAALING
Norwegia
Adres
Thormohlensgate 47
Bergen
INSTITUTUL NATIONAL DE HIDROLOGIE SI GOSPODARIRE A APELOR BUCURESTI
Rumunia
Adres
Bucuresti-ploiesti, 97
Bucharest
ADMINISTRATIA NATIONALA DE METEOROLOGIE
Rumunia
Adres
Sos. Bucuresti-ploiesti 97
Bucharest
RESEARCH CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Polska
Adres
Bukowska 19
Poznan
POTSDAM-INSTITUT FÜR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG E.V.
Niemcy
Adres
Telegrafenberg A31
60 12 03 Potsdam
RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEID EN MILIEU
Niderlandy
Adres
Antonie Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven
SOCIÉTÉ DE MATHÉMATIQUES APPLIQUÉES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES
Francja
Adres
9, Rue Duban
Paris
SUOMEN YMPARISTOKESKUS
Finlandia
Adres
Mechelininkatu 34 A
140 Helsinki
UNIVERSIDAD DE CANTABRIA
Hiszpania
Adres
Pabellón De Gobierno, Avda. De Los Castros, S/n
Santander
UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN
Belgia
Adres
Place De L'université, 1
Louvain-la-neuve
UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA LA MANCHA
Hiszpania
Adres
Plaza De La Universidad 2
Albacete
UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Norwegia
Adres
Problemveien 7
1072 Blindern Oslo
LUNDS UNIVERSITET
Szwecja
Adres
Paradisgatan 5C
117 Lund
UNIVERSITÄT KASSEL
Niemcy
Adres
Mönchebergstr. 19
Kassel
UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL
United Kingdom
Adres
Senate House, Abercromby Square
Liverpool
THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom
Adres
University Offices, Wellington Square
Oxford
WEATHER INFORMATICS LTD
United Kingdom
Adres
Science And Technology Centre, Earley Gate, Whiteknights Road
Reading
UNIVERSITE JOSEPH FOURIER GRENOBLE 1
Francja
MET EIREANN
Irlandia
Adres
Glasnevin Hill
Dublin 9
UNIVERSITAET BERN
Szwajcaria
Adres
Hochschulstrasse 4
Bern
LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUER MEERESWISSENSCHAFTEN AN DER UNIVERSITAET KIEL
Niemcy
Adres
Wischhofstrasse 1-3
Kiel
UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE
Szwajcaria
Adres
24 Rue Du Général-dufour
Geneve 4
PLANBUREAU VOOR DE LEEFOMGEVING (NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY)
Niderlandy
Adres
Antoine Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven
AARHUS UNIVERSITET
Dania
Adres
Nordre Ringgade 1
Aarhus C